James has been naming every player on the EA Sports video game rosters for half a decade now, he’s finally putting his knowledge to better use writing for us here at CappersPicks.com. Your comments are welcome below…Give Us Your Take!
With the grave, nightmarish allegations swirling around the Penn State football program, the nation’s attention is focused on that arena, but the show must go on for all the other FBS teams this week.
This is the battle every college football fan has been waiting for, the one that has been talked about incessantly all week.
The #1 vs. #2, LSU vs. Alabama tilt will get all the publicity this week, but this game is still another premier SEC West division match-up. It is very seldom that such a good game against two Top 10 teams will get lost in the shadows.
Wake Forest’s sophomore QB Tanner Price took his lumps last year as a first-year starter, but the trial by fire seems to be paying off in 2011.
The Bulldogs have an eye-popping vacancy on their team this week that would be crippling were they to play a conference foe or another considerable team.
As is so common with the football programs of the Academies, expect this game between Army and Air Force to be a ground-oriented affair. Army has the top rushing attack in the FBS, and the Falcons are right behind with the third-best run game.
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville TN
Saturday, October 29, 7:15 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Carolina -170, Tennessee +150
Spread: Carolina -3.5, Tennessee +3.5
Over/Under: 44
When healthy, the Tennessee Volunteers have some dynamic elements that are developing nicely, but recent weeks have shown that UT is still a long way away from where they need to be in the East division.
The Vols have been shellacked in consecutive weeks by the big boys in the SEC – Alabama and LSU. In those two losses, Tennessee has scored a combined 13 points, while the defense has given up a combined whopping 75. That is a two-week stretch which certainly will not inspire confidence.
To be fair, the Vols have had a couple reasons to belly-ache and make excuses. Injuries have compromised the most skilled region of the team – the passing game. Starting pivot Tyler Bray has been out for several weeks now with a thumb ailment and key target, WR Justin Hunter, is out for the year with a knee injury. Freshman DeAnthony Arnett is doing his best to replace Hunter, but he can’t bring quite the same dynamic Hunter has with his speed. Herman Lathers, a starting LB, is also on the shelf.
The Vols would have been in tough playing ’Bama and LSU even with a perfectly healthy squad – with a diluted vertical passing game, Tennessee was screwed from the word “Go.” Tennessee scored more than 40 points in three of the first four weeks, but since the injuries, the prolific offense has slowed to a trickle. Matt Simms, the veteran charged with replacing Bray under center, has played quite miserably. He’s never lived up to expectations and without the big arm of Bray, the Vols just don’t have the same explosiveness. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It hasn’t always been pretty for South Carolina, but it’s been effective for the most part in 2011. The Gamecocks’ only blemish is a narrow 16-13 loss versus Auburn, and Carolina has persevered through kicking former starting QB Stephen Garcia off the team, sophomore Connor Shaw stepping in to take his place and a ghastly knee injury for starting workhorse RB Marcus Lattimore. Shaw has shown he is up for the job, but losing Lattimore is a major blow for the Gamecocks for the rest of the season. Lattimore had registered 818 rushing yards and 10 TDs on the season, he would have cruised well past 1,000 yards had he stayed healthy. A reliable RB is also all the more vital with a young starting pivot that may experience growing pains.
Carolina will have to rely more on Shaw’s athleticism and his developing ability to hook up aerially with WR Alshon Jeffery – Carolina’s best remaining healthy target – and Ace Sanders. Neyland Stadium – a.k.a. “Rocky Top” – can be a truly daunting place to play, but SC is lucky that Tennessee also has profound injuries to important pieces of its team. The Gamecocks still have #10 Arkansas and #5 Clemson on their schedule, but given Tennessee’s struggling defense and one-dimensional (plus injured) offense, the odds look pretty good for Carolina to steal a win in Knoxville.
If Tennessee is going to get a win at home, Simms must play better and the Vols must also get more production out of RB Tauren Poole; the senior has ability but has been pretty pedestrian (4.0 yards per clip, just two TDs) thus far. Tennessee fans are yearning for a winner, but they probably will have to wait a bit longer.
Carolina, meanwhile, has been imperfect, but it has been good enough. Whether the Gamecocks will finish strong without Lattimore remains to be seen, but head coach Steve Spurrier and his men should expect to travel to Knoxville and grab a win in the hostile confines of Neyland Stadium.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 24, Tennessee 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend IN
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Navy +21.5, Notre Dame -21.5
Over/Under: 62
This traditional match-up against Independent teams pits two squads against each other with wildly different offensive strategies.
The Midshipmen are built on the ground game; Navy is third in the nation in rush yards per game (just over 325 yards per contest) while sitting 117th in the FBS in passing. The Middies run an option offense that puts heavy emphasis on ball possession and moving the chains.
The Irish, meanwhile, are aerial specialists. They like getting their production through the passing game with excellent targets like WR Michael Floyd and TE Tyler Eifert. The well-oiled attack seized up somewhat last week versus Southern Cal, however, the Irish lost 31-17 to USC in a game where they looked largely uninspired. The Golden Domers need to rebound nicely to get the momentum on track – Navy looks like the perfect opponent to accomplish this end.
Navy is still more vulnerable because of starting QB Kriss Proctor’s hand injury in last week’s 38-35 loss to East Carolina. Trey Miller should start in place of Proctor this week, there will absolutely be a drop-off because Proctor is leading the team in rushing (591 yards, eight TDs) to go along with six passing majors. During this time of year when seemingly every team is battling the injury bug, the Middies will also miss LB Matt Brewer (neck stinger), CB David Wright (foot) and RB Aaron Santiago (arm). Navy doesn’t need top-line recruits to run its gameplan, but the injuries will doubtlessly test a team that does not have great depth to begin with.
Notre Dame needs to get a sustained effort from its players right from the opening whistle, because if the Irish play like they are capable of, the passing game will shred Navy’s secondary. Unlike the past couple seasons, the Irish are also getting a nice contribution from the running back position; junior Cierre Wood and senior Jonas Gray have combined for 1,100 yards and 11 TDs. The Irish “D” is coming off consecutive games where they surrendered 33 points to Air Force and 31 to USC, so they must smarten up against a pesky option attack. Notre Dame is dealing with two key injuries at the defensive end spot – starters Ethan Johnson is “Questionable” with an injured ankle and Kapron Lewis-Moore is out for the year with a knee. As the defensive line is crucial to stopping the run game, new faces must step up this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Irish signal-caller Tommy Rees hyper-extended his knee against the Trojans last week, but he was able to return to the game and should be ready to go this Saturday. Rees is in the school’s record books for going the third-longest streak of passes without an interception (135 pass attempts) so, while the streak was snapped when Rees threw a pick last week, he’s obviously been playing within himself. Notre Dame has everyone else healthy on offense to utilize, so Navy’s 83rd-ranked defensive unit will likely feel the wrath of Rees, Floyd, Wood and Co. (that sounds like a company that should be selling nappy sweaters to tourists in Maine).
Irish head coach Brian Kelly and his men should be frustrated after their lackluster showing against rival USC, so they ought to come out with an eye to steamroll the Middies. If the team uses the Southern Cal shortcomings as fuel to play with an edge this week at home, the Golden Domers should win by multiple scores against the banged-up visitors from the Naval Academy.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 12
Over/Under Prediction: 50
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn AL
Saturday, October 29, 7:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Ole Miss +400, Auburn -500
Spread: Ole Miss +13, Auburn -13
Over/Under: 51
It says a lot about the SEC when the Auburn Tigers can have three losses – and two conference losses – and still be ranked in the Top 25. The Tigers have lost to some good teams, so Ole Miss probably shouldn’t take much solace from the “Ls” on Auburn’s slate.
The Ole Miss Rebels are just not a very good football team. Granted, they gave Arkansas a scare last weekend (the Razorbacks held on, 29-24) but that’s the first time the Rebs have looked even remotely impressive against a good team. The Rebels QB position, which has been flip-flopping between juniors Randall Mackey and Zack Stoudt, seems to finally have Mackey entrenched as the starter. Mackey had a strong performance against the Hogs last week, going for 219 yards and two TDs in a losing cause. The Rebels will need Mackey to re-create a lot more magic if they are to have any chance this Saturday night in Auburn.
The Tigers are coming off an embarrassing 45-10 loss to the LSU Tigers, but LSU has been beating most everyone in that style in 2011. Auburn is a pretty good team once you make peace with the fact it certainly isn’t the squad that won the National Championship with wunderkind QB Cam Newton a year ago. This Auburn team rotates around its running game. Starter Michael Dyer has a very solid 812 yards and eight TDs on the season, he should crack 1,000 yards before all is said and done. Back-up Onterio McCalebb provides some speed and quickness off the bench, with 387 yards and a healthy 5.6 yards per carry average.
Auburn leans on its running game even more lately because of two realities: firstly, stud WR Emory Blake has been out for the past several weeks with a nagging foot injury, he is still listed as “Questionable” for this weekend. Second, Tigers head coach Gene Chizik recently benched starting QB Barrett Trotter in favor of more scrambling-minded Clint Moseley. This certainly makes the Tigers more one-dimensional and while that can burn you against an LSU or Alabama, Ole Miss is probably fledgling enough that it won’t matter.
Starting DE Ladarius Owens is also on the shelf for Auburn, but that is no excuse for the defense’s poor play. The unit gave up 45 points last week and only rank 75th in the nation in total defense – out of character for the Auburn football identity. It is entirely possible, however, that the Rebels are the ointment that get the Tigers’ defense back on track. If the “D” can inhibit Mackey from making plays with his athleticism, they stand a very good chance of beating Ole Miss soundly. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It seems like Ole Miss is in perennial rebuild mode. It has surely been a struggle for the pigskin-mad Mississippians and the fix likely won’t come this week in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Aside from recent flashes of life out of Mackey, the Ole Miss offense has been miserable (the Rebs rank 107th in both passing and rushing) and the defense, while stout at times, will probably yield a lot of rushing yardage to Dyer, McCalebb and Moseley. It will be a great start for Ole Miss just to get a similar effort this week that it did in the Arkansas game, and to just see what happens from there.
For Auburn’s part, it must ensure that it doesn’t get caught looking past the Rebels. It is still a conference game with potentially broad implications. And in all honesty, that is probably the only scenario where the Tigers lose to the visiting Rebels this Saturday night.
Score Prediction: Auburn 35, Ole Miss 13
Over/Under Prediction: 48
“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Georgia -154, Florida +127
Spread: Georgia -3, Florida +3
Over/Under: 49
Earlier in the regular season, it was looking like the Georgia Bulldogs were the SEC East division pretender and the Gators were the divisional contender. In recent weeks, however, a combination of injuries and teams showing their true colors have shaken it down to be the opposite between these two rivals.
Florida got out to a great start on the campaign, steam-rolling opponents and showcasing a very dangerous and cohesive offense. Yet the Gators have lost their last three games and have had devastating injuries at the quarterback position, with starter John Brantley going down a few weeks ago and freshman back-up Jeff Driskel also dinged up. True freshman Jacoby Brissett has been starting for UF, sharing time with Driskel for the last couple games against Top 25 opponents (Alabama, LSU, Auburn). Brantley is finally listed as “Probable” for this Saturday’s game against Georgia.
In truth, the injuries have been far more pervasive than just under center. Listed as “Questionable” or confirmed “Out” for this coming week are the following starters: RG Dan Wenger, WR Andre Debose, K Caleb Sturgis, super-speedster RB Jeff Demps, DE Ronald Powell and CB Jeremy Brown. This type of attrition obviously has had a lot to do with why Florida has lost three straight games against elite SEC West division teams. Florida has had excellent fortune in the past several years; perhaps it was high time for “the other shoe to drop” in Gainesville. Either way, it seems like that is precisely what’s happening in 2011.
On the other sideline, the Bulldogs are a little banged up themselves – WR Malcolm Mitchell and LB Alec Ogletree are big absences, and a few other defenders will be out for only part of the Florida game, due to personal foul suspensions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Freshman WR Mitchell was Georgia’s leading receiver, but QB Aaron Murray has the skill and the weapons to go elsewhere and still be productive. Tight end Orson Charles is a vital option for Murray, and freshman RB Isaiah Crowell has been a huge help, with 608 rushing yards and four TDs on the year. The Dawgs lost their first two games to Boise State and South Carolina, respectively, but have reeled off five straight wins since then.
With Auburn being the only other ranked team Georgia faces the rest of the season, Georgia has a good chance to finish the season with only two losses and perhaps win the division. However, assuming Brantley is back in the lineup, he instantly brings credibility to a sputtering Florida attack. The absence of Demps will certainly be felt, but Brantley can spread the ball around and the versatile RB/WR Chris Rainey leads the Gators in both rushing and receptions.
This should be a close rivalry game played in the No Man’s Land of Jacksonville (east towards Athens, GA, but still in the Sunshine State), but I give the edge to Georgia because of a few reasons: the continuity Murray has established with his offense, Georgia’s 27th-ranked defense and the blood in the water that opponents doubtlessly smell when they play Florida these days.
Florida will have a better showing than it did against any of its last three opponents, but I don’t think it will be enough to best the rolling Bulldogs right now. Georgia should continue to look like the top Dawg in the SEC East, while Florida seemingly continues its limp to the finish line. Florida has plenty of speed and talent – as it showcased in the first four weeks of the season – but it desperately needs to get healthy.
Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41
Virginia Cavaliers (4-3, 1-2 ACC) vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (4-3, 2-2 ACC)
Sun Life Stadium, Miami FL
Thursday, Oct. 27, 8:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Virginia +420, Miami-Fl -588
Spread: Virginia +13.5, Miami-Fl -13.5
Over/Under: 48
“The U” doesn’t have the same bite to its reputation that it had in the late 1980s or at the turn of the last decade, but the Hurricanes are still a better team than their record suggests. The Cavaliers have at least matched expectations with their play, but do they have enough talent to keep up with Miami?
The ’Canes are coming off two nice wins against conference foes, 30-24 at North Carolina and 24-7 versus Georgia Tech. Embattled QB Jacory Harris is playing within himself this season and has an efficient 12-4 TD/INT ratio in 2011. The senior needed to cut down on his turnovers and he’s done exactly that. The Miami offense is diversified thanks to RB Lamar Miller, the sophomore has just under 800 rushing yards on the year to go with six majors.
For Virginia’s part, it’s been a bit of a see-saw affair. The Cavs have a nice win over Georgia Tech, but have come up short against UNC, Southern Miss and NC State. Sophomore pivot Michael Rocco is learning under fire this year and the offense has been only average. The bulk of the production comes from the RB duo of Perry Jones and freshman Kevin Parks. Considering Virginia has been at the bottom of the ACC table for several seasons now, its record is not too shabby. For the season to be a real success, however, the Cavs must get a couple wins against legitimate conference and divisional foes.
This will be a tall order playing the Hurricanes, unless Harris reverts back to his 2010 self (he threw more interceptions, 15, than touchdowns, 14, last season). The ’Canes have been one of several college programs to have a litany of infractions and violations with the NCAA lately but new head coach Al Golden is trying to navigate the stormy waters and get Miami back to national prominence. Injuries have also plagued The U – the team expects starting CB Brandon McGee back for this Thursday’s game, but starters Marcus Forston (DT) and Ramon Buchanan (LB) are out for the year with ailments, and starting WR Aldarius Johnson has been suspended indefinitely for violating “team rules”.
There is no doubt that the road has been bumpy for Miami, especially lately. Former coach Randy Shannon was not able to deliver on his promises, and Golden was perhaps left with a steaming pile of crud in his lap. Yet the talent is still present on the roster, and Miami only narrowly missed its last two losses to Kansas State (28-24 L) and conference giant Virginia Tech (38-35 L). If Harris continues to play intelligent football, the talent and speed is enough on both sides of the ball for the ’Canes to again be an ACC competitor.
Miami’s defense has been pretty stout even with the attrition, so Jones and Parks may find it tough sledding on the ground and Rocco could well be prone to errors (it doesn’t help that starting WR Matt Snyder is out with a foot injury). Rocco is progressing well as a starting pivot and it certainly hasn’t gone as bad as it could have thus far for the Cavaliers, but the less talented visitors from Charlottesville will probably be exposed by the home side.
Virginia may be moving out of the conference basement and as far as Miami is concerned, things are far from perfect in Coral Gables. But grabbing another conference win is a further baby step for the ’Canes and they should do it in front of a TV audience Thursday night.
Score Prediction: Miami 31, Virginia 16
Over/Under Prediction: 47
Southern Cal had been dominating this match-up in recent seasons, until the Golden Domers exacted some revenge last season, pulling out a 20-16 victory.
In a cutthroat conference like the SEC, there just isn’t any room for “getting-there’s” and “nice try, buts…” The Tennessee Volunteers showed a lot of good things earlier in the regular season, but a combination of injuries and a lack of well-roundedness has the Vols staring down the barrel of an 0-4 conference start.
In recent seasons, “The Battle of the Tigers” has been a can’t-miss for SEC fans and college football fans alike. Conventional wisdom would say that some of the pinch has been taken out of the match-up with the departure of all-world Auburn QB Cam Newton, but Auburn is notoriously testy in big games.
As far as SEC West division match-ups go, this one seems to break pretty well for the visiting team. The home side Rebels haven’t looked good at all in 2011, poor play has been highlighted by no steadying presence under center and a slew of injuries and suspensions to important contributors.
Both of these SEC strongholds have hit turbulence in recent weeks. The Florida Gators have lost consecutive games – badly to West division stalwarts Alabama and LSU. Auburn, meanwhile, is coming off a 38-14 spanking at the hands of Arkansas.
