Army Black Knights (3-5) vs Air Force Falcons (4-4) Handicapping Preview
As is so common with the football programs of the Academies, expect this game between Army and Air Force to be a ground-oriented affair. Army has the top rushing attack in the FBS, and the Falcons are right behind with the third-best run game.
Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs CO
Saturday, Nov. 5, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Army +17, Air Force -17
Over/Under: 60
Yet just because Army ranks number one in an offensive category, doesn’t mean it is a very successful football team. The Knights and the Falcons have similar records, but Air Force has fared much better against superior opponents in 2011. The Falcons have four losses, but they’ve given some very good teams a decent game. Air Force hung with #25-ranked TCU and only lost to #5 Boise State by 11.
The Falcons have a more cohesive passing game than the other service academies (Army and Navy) led by senior QB Tim Jefferson. The veteran has eclipsed 1,000 passing yards and eight TDs to go along with 300 rush yards and seven rush TDs. Air Force’s effective running game is spearheaded by senior Asher Clark (654 yards) and junior FB Matt DeWitt (410). Jefferson injured his nose last week, but he is listed as Probable and should be ready to go this weekend.
This formula has been pretty useful at putting points on the board; Air Force ranks 27th in the nation in points for. The Falcons have dropped some points on talented teams, including Notre Dame and Boise State. Air Force is also coming off a 42-0 thumping of New Mexico last week.
Army has a win over the Big Ten’s Northwestern in Week Three, but that is the lone accomplishment it can boast about this year. Army’s other pair of wins have come against flaccid competition (Tulane and FCS Fordham, to be exact) and the Knights rank dead-last in passing offense (less than 50 yards per game!) and 68th in total defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
To its credit, Army has developed a good RB in sophomore Raymond Maples. The Philadelphia, PA native has 759 rushing yards on the campaign, with a very healthy 7.3 yard per carry average. Needless to say, Knights QB Trent Steelman is more of a running threat than a passer.
The Knights too are coming off a decisive win, though their triumph was against lowly Fordham. It also came at a cost: Steelman, who has started every game of his college career, left the Fordham game with a high ankle sprain. He was replaced by senior Max Jenkins and he is expected out this week as well. Losing Steelman removes a major part of the Knights’ offensive game-plan; he has the most carries on the team to go with double-digit TDs (11, to be exact).
Air Force is just a little deeper top to bottom than the Knights, particularly with the loss of Steelman. Jefferson is far too savvy a veteran to have the Army Black Knights, of all teams, come onto his turf and spoil his plans – especially when they are minus their starting pivot. Air Force has a more balanced, well-oiled offensive attack and it has proven it can work against some mighty competition.
These factors meld together to make a formula that spells doom for the Army Black Knights this Saturday afternoon in Colorado Springs.
Score Prediction: Air Force 45, Army 21
Over/Under Prediction: 66
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