#13 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1, 4-1 SEC) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (3-4, 0-4 SEC)
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville TN
Saturday, October 29, 7:15 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Carolina -170, Tennessee +150
Spread: Carolina -3.5, Tennessee +3.5
Over/Under: 44
When healthy, the Tennessee Volunteers have some dynamic elements that are developing nicely, but recent weeks have shown that UT is still a long way away from where they need to be in the East division.
The Vols have been shellacked in consecutive weeks by the big boys in the SEC – Alabama and LSU. In those two losses, Tennessee has scored a combined 13 points, while the defense has given up a combined whopping 75. That is a two-week stretch which certainly will not inspire confidence.
To be fair, the Vols have had a couple reasons to belly-ache and make excuses. Injuries have compromised the most skilled region of the team – the passing game. Starting pivot Tyler Bray has been out for several weeks now with a thumb ailment and key target, WR Justin Hunter, is out for the year with a knee injury. Freshman DeAnthony Arnett is doing his best to replace Hunter, but he can’t bring quite the same dynamic Hunter has with his speed. Herman Lathers, a starting LB, is also on the shelf.
The Vols would have been in tough playing ’Bama and LSU even with a perfectly healthy squad – with a diluted vertical passing game, Tennessee was screwed from the word “Go.” Tennessee scored more than 40 points in three of the first four weeks, but since the injuries, the prolific offense has slowed to a trickle. Matt Simms, the veteran charged with replacing Bray under center, has played quite miserably. He’s never lived up to expectations and without the big arm of Bray, the Vols just don’t have the same explosiveness. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It hasn’t always been pretty for South Carolina, but it’s been effective for the most part in 2011. The Gamecocks’ only blemish is a narrow 16-13 loss versus Auburn, and Carolina has persevered through kicking former starting QB Stephen Garcia off the team, sophomore Connor Shaw stepping in to take his place and a ghastly knee injury for starting workhorse RB Marcus Lattimore. Shaw has shown he is up for the job, but losing Lattimore is a major blow for the Gamecocks for the rest of the season. Lattimore had registered 818 rushing yards and 10 TDs on the season, he would have cruised well past 1,000 yards had he stayed healthy. A reliable RB is also all the more vital with a young starting pivot that may experience growing pains.
Carolina will have to rely more on Shaw’s athleticism and his developing ability to hook up aerially with WR Alshon Jeffery – Carolina’s best remaining healthy target – and Ace Sanders. Neyland Stadium – a.k.a. “Rocky Top” – can be a truly daunting place to play, but SC is lucky that Tennessee also has profound injuries to important pieces of its team. The Gamecocks still have #10 Arkansas and #5 Clemson on their schedule, but given Tennessee’s struggling defense and one-dimensional (plus injured) offense, the odds look pretty good for Carolina to steal a win in Knoxville.
If Tennessee is going to get a win at home, Simms must play better and the Vols must also get more production out of RB Tauren Poole; the senior has ability but has been pretty pedestrian (4.0 yards per clip, just two TDs) thus far. Tennessee fans are yearning for a winner, but they probably will have to wait a bit longer.
Carolina, meanwhile, has been imperfect, but it has been good enough. Whether the Gamecocks will finish strong without Lattimore remains to be seen, but head coach Steve Spurrier and his men should expect to travel to Knoxville and grab a win in the hostile confines of Neyland Stadium.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 24, Tennessee 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41
