#22 Georgia Bulldogs (5-2, 4-1 SEC) vs. Florida Gators (4-3, 2-3 SEC)
“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Georgia -154, Florida +127
Spread: Georgia -3, Florida +3
Over/Under: 49
Earlier in the regular season, it was looking like the Georgia Bulldogs were the SEC East division pretender and the Gators were the divisional contender. In recent weeks, however, a combination of injuries and teams showing their true colors have shaken it down to be the opposite between these two rivals.
Florida got out to a great start on the campaign, steam-rolling opponents and showcasing a very dangerous and cohesive offense. Yet the Gators have lost their last three games and have had devastating injuries at the quarterback position, with starter John Brantley going down a few weeks ago and freshman back-up Jeff Driskel also dinged up. True freshman Jacoby Brissett has been starting for UF, sharing time with Driskel for the last couple games against Top 25 opponents (Alabama, LSU, Auburn). Brantley is finally listed as “Probable” for this Saturday’s game against Georgia.
In truth, the injuries have been far more pervasive than just under center. Listed as “Questionable” or confirmed “Out” for this coming week are the following starters: RG Dan Wenger, WR Andre Debose, K Caleb Sturgis, super-speedster RB Jeff Demps, DE Ronald Powell and CB Jeremy Brown. This type of attrition obviously has had a lot to do with why Florida has lost three straight games against elite SEC West division teams. Florida has had excellent fortune in the past several years; perhaps it was high time for “the other shoe to drop” in Gainesville. Either way, it seems like that is precisely what’s happening in 2011.
On the other sideline, the Bulldogs are a little banged up themselves – WR Malcolm Mitchell and LB Alec Ogletree are big absences, and a few other defenders will be out for only part of the Florida game, due to personal foul suspensions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Freshman WR Mitchell was Georgia’s leading receiver, but QB Aaron Murray has the skill and the weapons to go elsewhere and still be productive. Tight end Orson Charles is a vital option for Murray, and freshman RB Isaiah Crowell has been a huge help, with 608 rushing yards and four TDs on the year. The Dawgs lost their first two games to Boise State and South Carolina, respectively, but have reeled off five straight wins since then.
With Auburn being the only other ranked team Georgia faces the rest of the season, Georgia has a good chance to finish the season with only two losses and perhaps win the division. However, assuming Brantley is back in the lineup, he instantly brings credibility to a sputtering Florida attack. The absence of Demps will certainly be felt, but Brantley can spread the ball around and the versatile RB/WR Chris Rainey leads the Gators in both rushing and receptions.
This should be a close rivalry game played in the No Man’s Land of Jacksonville (east towards Athens, GA, but still in the Sunshine State), but I give the edge to Georgia because of a few reasons: the continuity Murray has established with his offense, Georgia’s 27th-ranked defense and the blood in the water that opponents doubtlessly smell when they play Florida these days.
Florida will have a better showing than it did against any of its last three opponents, but I don’t think it will be enough to best the rolling Bulldogs right now. Georgia should continue to look like the top Dawg in the SEC East, while Florida seemingly continues its limp to the finish line. Florida has plenty of speed and talent – as it showcased in the first four weeks of the season – but it desperately needs to get healthy.
Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41
