New Mexico State Aggies (3-5, 1-3 WAC) vs #18 Georgia Bulldogs (6-2, 5-1 SEC) Handicapping Preview
The Bulldogs have an eye-popping vacancy on their team this week that would be crippling were they to play a conference foe or another considerable team.
Sanford Stadium, Athens GA
Saturday, Nov. 5, 12:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: NM St. +33.5, Georgia -33.5
Over/Under: 56
Against an unintimidating side from the WAC, however, the Dawgs might still be OK.
Thanks to a slew of suspensions, Georgia loses virtually every RB on the depth chart this Saturday. Starting freshman Isaiah Crowell, as well as depth guys Ken Malcome and Carlton Thomas are out due to suspension. According to head coach Mark Richt, the players “didn’t exhibit Georgia behavior.” Second-leading rusher Richard Samuel had ankle surgery this week, so he is obviously also out. This leaves sophomore Brandon Harton as the lone RB on the depth chart; Harton has one appearance all season and has amassed a whopping 33 yards (note the sarcasm).
Richt has mentioned giving certain cornerbacks on the roster whom possess RB-like traits a long look at playing both ways this weekend. A player like CB Brandon Boykin is apt to not come off the field very often versus New Mexico State. Corner Branden Smith could also get a long look, as Harton is a pint-sized former walk-on player that won’t instill fear in many defenses (as much as Georgia players’ “circle the wagon” press conferences try to tell you otherwise).
The Aggies would love to exploit this handicap, though the fact is that the talent of Boykin in the backfield the odd time he is called to do so is probably still more than any NM State tailback on the roster. New Mexico State has a decent, gutsy win earlier in the regular season against Minnesota (28-21 W), but that is really its lone notable accomplishment in 2011. The Aggies possess a pretty good passing attack (ranked 16th in the nation, in fact) but they go up against a Georgia team with a very respectable defense – in the SEC. A further hope might be that starters Boykin and Smith are gassed with all the extra duty they see in this match-up. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
We cannot forget that Georgia still has QB Aaron Murray. True, dynamic freshman WR Malcolm Mitchell is out with a hamstring ailment, but Murray can adapt and still has an array of targets, including TE Orson Charles, which has proven to be an excellent connection for the Bulldogs’ attack. On top of that is a Dawgs defense that is Top 25-ranked and the deafening “12th Man” of Sanford Stadium. It is entirely possible the Aggies get rattled in this hostile territory game when they hit some turbulence and Murray will have the wherewithal to distribute the pigskin when and where he needs.
Regardless, this is a pretty major setback for the home side. Crowell had been having a breakout year, and Samuel also provided a dangerous additional threat. All these simultaneous suspensions (potentially related to the failing of drug tests?) really decimates a unit on offense and the overuse of an important player like CB Boykin may leave him vulnerable to fatigue and injury. Georgia has such strong momentum going lately (six straight victories) that it must get creative in order to keep the good times rolling. Really, it is much better these players are suspended now, rather than next week versus #22 Auburn.
New Mexico State might get some aerial gains in this match-up, especially if the Georgia secondary is a little out of sorts thanks to the necessary double-duty of Boykin and Smith. Yet, the gulfs in talent between these two programs are just too wide; that coupled with the confidence of playing Between the Hedges should still see surging Georgia cruising to a fairly easy home win.
Score Prediction: Georgia 29, NM State 14
Over/Under Prediction: 43
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