Mississippi Rebels (2-5, 0-4 SEC) vs. #23 Auburn Tigers (5-3, 3-2 SEC)
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn AL
Saturday, October 29, 7:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Ole Miss +400, Auburn -500
Spread: Ole Miss +13, Auburn -13
Over/Under: 51
It says a lot about the SEC when the Auburn Tigers can have three losses – and two conference losses – and still be ranked in the Top 25. The Tigers have lost to some good teams, so Ole Miss probably shouldn’t take much solace from the “Ls” on Auburn’s slate.
The Ole Miss Rebels are just not a very good football team. Granted, they gave Arkansas a scare last weekend (the Razorbacks held on, 29-24) but that’s the first time the Rebs have looked even remotely impressive against a good team. The Rebels QB position, which has been flip-flopping between juniors Randall Mackey and Zack Stoudt, seems to finally have Mackey entrenched as the starter. Mackey had a strong performance against the Hogs last week, going for 219 yards and two TDs in a losing cause. The Rebels will need Mackey to re-create a lot more magic if they are to have any chance this Saturday night in Auburn.
The Tigers are coming off an embarrassing 45-10 loss to the LSU Tigers, but LSU has been beating most everyone in that style in 2011. Auburn is a pretty good team once you make peace with the fact it certainly isn’t the squad that won the National Championship with wunderkind QB Cam Newton a year ago. This Auburn team rotates around its running game. Starter Michael Dyer has a very solid 812 yards and eight TDs on the season, he should crack 1,000 yards before all is said and done. Back-up Onterio McCalebb provides some speed and quickness off the bench, with 387 yards and a healthy 5.6 yards per carry average.
Auburn leans on its running game even more lately because of two realities: firstly, stud WR Emory Blake has been out for the past several weeks with a nagging foot injury, he is still listed as “Questionable” for this weekend. Second, Tigers head coach Gene Chizik recently benched starting QB Barrett Trotter in favor of more scrambling-minded Clint Moseley. This certainly makes the Tigers more one-dimensional and while that can burn you against an LSU or Alabama, Ole Miss is probably fledgling enough that it won’t matter.
Starting DE Ladarius Owens is also on the shelf for Auburn, but that is no excuse for the defense’s poor play. The unit gave up 45 points last week and only rank 75th in the nation in total defense – out of character for the Auburn football identity. It is entirely possible, however, that the Rebels are the ointment that get the Tigers’ defense back on track. If the “D” can inhibit Mackey from making plays with his athleticism, they stand a very good chance of beating Ole Miss soundly. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It seems like Ole Miss is in perennial rebuild mode. It has surely been a struggle for the pigskin-mad Mississippians and the fix likely won’t come this week in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Aside from recent flashes of life out of Mackey, the Ole Miss offense has been miserable (the Rebs rank 107th in both passing and rushing) and the defense, while stout at times, will probably yield a lot of rushing yardage to Dyer, McCalebb and Moseley. It will be a great start for Ole Miss just to get a similar effort this week that it did in the Arkansas game, and to just see what happens from there.
For Auburn’s part, it must ensure that it doesn’t get caught looking past the Rebels. It is still a conference game with potentially broad implications. And in all honesty, that is probably the only scenario where the Tigers lose to the visiting Rebels this Saturday night.
Score Prediction: Auburn 35, Ole Miss 13
Over/Under Prediction: 48
