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NCAA Football

Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Longhorns Free Predictions

Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Longhorns

Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX
Saturday October 29Moneyline:  Texas -7200, Kansas +3250
Spread (ATS): Texas -28.5
Over/Under: 64.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Kansas

There is a very good chance that Kansas is the worst team within the BCS conferences this year.  They may have two wins but all five of their losses have been by 11 points or more and in every single one of them they have given up more than 45 points.  I am not sure what the reasonable expectations were for coach Turner Gill but he is not coming close to them.

I may have been underselling how bad the Jayhawks are on defense above.  They are dead  last in yards allowed and points allowed per game with an astonishing 50.  That’s a FG worse than New Mexico by comparison.  The Kansas program used to be competing in the Big 12 but it has really bottomed out over the last few years.  Texas, even in down cycle is still favoured by more than 4 TDs.

Kansas has not beaten the Longhorns since the Big 12 was formed out of the ashes of the Big 8 and Southwest Conferences.  The closest they have come was back in 2004 when they lost by just 4 points, the only time they have covered the spread in this series.  Kansas has always had the lesser talented team and was lucky to not have to face Texas every season in the old divisional format. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Texas

Can anyone really explain what has happened to Texas?  I know that quality QB play is essential to winning football but it seems like more than that is going on at a program which, if you can believe recruiting rankings, is about as talented as anybody in the country.  This week is the best chance they will have this year to make a statement and have some fun doing it.

One of the problems at Texas is that they can’t seem to make up their mind at QB.  I fully subscribe to the theory that if you are playing two QBs you really don’t have one.  Last time out David Ash got all of the snaps in a loss to Oklahoma State.  He wasn’t very good but assuming they used their off week effectively he should show much better against Kansas.  Plus it is Kansas right!

This week Texas should be able to get by with a mediocre performance and still win by 20.  however, this team is so skittish right now that I would be hesitant to get behind them in a major way.  It might be time for Mack Brown to shuffle off and let someone else inject some enthusiasm into the program.  Sorry if this preview isn’t as focused on the game as others but I find the Texas situation so interesting and it is not as if Kansas/Texas is a real game anyway.  Sorry Jayhawk fans.

ATS Pick:  Texas -28.5
Over/Under Pick:  Under
Score Prediction:  Texas 42 – Kansas 7

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NCAA Football

Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 20 Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAAF Lines

Venue/ Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium, LUBBOCK, TX

Time/Date: 7 PM EST Saturday, October 29, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Iowa State +500 / Texas Tech -640
Spread (ATS): Texas Tech -15
Over/Under: 67

Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 20 Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview

Texas Tech (5-2) is coming off a HUGE win beating Oklahoma on the road, which snapped the Sooners 39-game home winning streak. Iowa State (3-4) is on the other side of the spectrum, as after starting the season 3-0 they have lost their last 4 games and have yet to win a Big 12 game. NCAAF lines have Texas Tech as big 15-point home favorites with a total of 67.

In their last games Iowa State lost to Texas A&M 33-17 while Texas Tech beat Oklahoma 41-38.

The big question in this game is do Iowa State and their 74th ranked pass defense have any chance against a Texas Tech pass offense that ranks 3rd in the nation?

Tech and their dynamic passing offense is led by QB Seth Doege, who passed for 441 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT in the win over Oklahoma, and WR’s Alex Torres (39 rec 475 yards 4 TD) and Eric Ward (44 rec 430 yards 8 TD). The Cyclones gave up 263 passing yards last week and in their last 3 losses, which were all blowouts, they lost to teams that have a great passing offense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Even though the aerial attack is the main weapon for the Red Raiders they can run the ball ranking 59th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Not only do the Cyclones have a weak pass defense, but also their run defense is even worse ranking 114th in the nation.

For Iowa State to have any chance to win this game they will need QB Jared Barnett and RB James White to play stellar. This is especially the case since the ISU defense has really struggled in the last few games. Still, White has only rushed for over 100 yards in 1 game this season and freshman Barnett is only making the 1st start of his career. The one thing the Cyclones have going for them is that the Red Raiders only rank 105th in the nation in run defense and 53rd in pass defense.

White will not get any help in the backfield since RB Shontrelle Johnson, who rushed for 102 yards last season against Texas Tech, is out for this game with an injury.

Betting Trends

This season Iowa State is 3-4 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3 and Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 6-1.

Iowa State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, and has an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 road games.

Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games facing a team with a losing record and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Jason’s Pick: Seriously? Texas Tech ranks 9th in the nation in scoring while Iowa State ranks 115th giving up almost 36 points per game? Yeah, take Tech to easily win and cover and the Over is the pick with all the points on the scoreboard that will be put up in this Big 12 match up.

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NCAA Football

Missouri Tigers vs. No 16 Texas A&M Aggies NCAAF Lines

Venue/ Stadium: Kyle Field, COLLEGE STATION, TX

Time/Date: 12 PM EST Saturday, October 29, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Missouri +365 / Texas A&M -440
Spread (ATS): Texas A&M -11
Over/Under: 62.5

Missouri Tigers vs. No 16 Texas A&M Aggies Preview

Texas A&M (5-2) has gotten over their 2 close losses this season with 3 straight wins and their offense, which ranks 13th in the nation in scoring, has kept on rolling. Missouri (3-4) is under .500 and the underdog in this game, but the Tigers are solid on both sides of the ball and all of their losses this season have come to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25. NCAAF lines has Texas A&M as 11-point favorites in this Big 12 game with a total of 62.5.

In their last games Texas A&M beat Iowa State 33-17 and Missouri lost to Oklahoma State 45-24.

Something has got to give in this game, as Texas A&M is giving up 79.9 rushing yards per game, which is the fewest in the Big 12, while Missouri is averaging 238.1 rushing yards per game.

Ryan Tannehill leads the Aggies and their 19th ranked passing offense and he has several solid targets and will be facing a Mizzou pass defense that ranks 86th in the nation and gave up 338 passing yards to Oklahoma State last week. The Tigers have a decent pass rush with 15 sacks on the season and getting to Tannehill is key since their secondary is sketchy. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Aggies have the nation’s 14th ranked rushing offense and the RB duo of Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray have combined to rush for over 1,350 yards this season. Mizzou has the nation’s 41st ranked run defense and it is pretty simple for them, as they have to play good all around D against a high scoring offense of A&M and if they do not their offense will have to bail them out.

The Texas A&M defense is Jekyll and Hyde, as they have the nations worst pass defense, but the 5th best run defense. Their D has one goal in this game and that is to contain duel threat Missouri QB James Franklin and RB Henry Josey. The Aggies have the advantage since the strength of the Mizzou offense is running the ball, but stopping Posey will not be easy, as he has averaged 8.6 yards per carry this season and has rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games.

Franklin may have to do it all if A&M stuffs the run and the duo of T.J. Moe and TE Michael Egnew will have to make some big plays down the field.

Mizzou’s offensive line must play well, as Texas A&M has the most sacks in the nation this season.

On the season Missouri is 4-3 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3 and Texas A&M is 2-5 ARS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3.

Betting Trends

Mizzou is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more and has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games facing a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 home games.

Jason’s Pick: I Like Mizzou, but have to go with Texas A&M in this game, as they are simply too good on offense and they have a great run defense. Take the Aggies to win and cover and since Mizzou will score some points I think the Over is the way to go.

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NCAA Football

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 8 Kansas State Wildcats NCAAF Lines

Venue/ Stadium: Bill Snyder Stadium, MANHATTAN, KS

Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Saturday, October 29, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Oklahoma -500 / KSU +405
Spread (ATS): Oklahoma -13.5
Over/Under: 59.5

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 8 Kansas State Wildcats Preview

Last week Oklahoma (6-1) had their 39-home winning streak snapped with a shocking loss to Texas Tech and to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 title they will have to beat Kansas State (7-0). The Wildcats are undefeated and the next few games will show if they are a legit Big 12 title and BCS contender, as after Oklahoma they face the ranked teams of Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Texas. NCAAF lines have Oklahoma as big 13.5-point away favorites with a total of 59.5.

In their last games Oklahoma was a 4-TD betting favorite, but lost to Texas Tech 41-38 and Kansas State crushed rival Kansas 59-21.

The Sooners’ defense failed to show up last week in the loss to Texas Tech giving up 452 passing yards and 120 rushing yards. They will likely not give up a ton of passing yards, as the Wildcats are all about the run ranking 19th in the nation in rushing yards per game, but only 110th in passing yards per game. For the Sooners’ defense their goal is to contain rushing QB Collin Klein (637 rushing yards 14 TD) and RB John Hubert (637 yards 2 TD). If they can keep these guys from racking up a ton of rushing yards they will easily win this game.

Oklahoma ranks 28th in the nation in run defense. Klein did have 195 passing yards with 1 TD in the win over Kansas, but if he has to carry the offense with his arm KSU will be in trouble. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Oklahoma and their nation’s 4th ranked passing offense is led by Landry Jones, who threw for 412 yards with 5 TD and 1 INT in the loss to Texas Tech. He has a solid WR corps, especially NCAA’s all time reception leader WR Ryan Broyles, and the main reason OU is a big favorite is that KSU only ranks 87th in the nation defending the pass.

Sooners’ lead RB Dominique Whaley (627 yards 9 TD) did not play in the Tech game, but he will play this Saturday. While the Wildcats do not have a good pass defense their run defense ranks a solid 13th in the nation. Still, if they cannot keep Jones from lighting up the scoreboard KSU will suffer their first loss of the season.

Betting Trends

This season Kansas State is 6-1 ATS and has an Over/Under record of 4-3 and Oklahoma is 4-3 ATS and also has an Over/Under record of 4-3.

Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Jason’s Pick: I think KSU is overrated and because their pass defense is weak Jones is going to light them up, as the Sooners will win and cover the 11.5-point spread. Take the Over as well, as KSU will not get blanked and OU will score a ton of points.

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NFL

Week 8: Patriots vs. Steelers Preview & Free NFL Pick

New England Patriots (5-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST, October 30, 2011
Venue: Heinz Field
Broadcast: CBS
Patriots vs. Steelers Gambling Odds from 5Dimes
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Moneyline: Patriots (-140) Steelers (+120)
Over/Under: 52

It’s a matchup of the top two teams in the AFC this Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Steelers and the Patriots have both won three straight games. New England has had two weeks to prepare for this one, but it will be a difficult environment for the Patriots at Heinz Field. This could easily be a preview of the AFC Championship Game. This is the best game on the schedule this weekend.

Tom Brady has a 6-1 career record against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year the Patriots went into Heinz Field and won 39-26. Brady leads the AFC with 2,163 passing yards this year. He has an impressive quarterback rating of 104.5. Wes Welker has been an absolute beast in the slot receiver spot for the Patriots this year. Welker has 785 receiving yards in just six games. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez give the Patriots the best tight end tandem in all of football. They have combined for eight touchdown catches. The Patriots running game has been better than most expected, which has definitely kept opposing defenses honest. New England is first in the NFL in total offense.

The Patriots front seven has done a nice job against the run this year. Vince Wilfork clogs up the middle nicely, and the linebackers are quick to the football. The issue for New England has been their terrible pass coverage. It is never a good sign when your leading tacklers are in the secondary. New England’s top three tacklers are all in the secondary. The Patriots are dead last in the NFL in pass defense. Expect Pittsburgh to test the secondary this weekend. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Pittsburgh’s passing offense has gotten off to a much better start this year since it has had Ben Roethlisberger available since day one. Roethlisberger has a solid quarterback rating of 95.3, and he has already thrown 12 touchdown passes. He benefits from an impressive group of pass catchers. Mike Wallace has turned into one of the best deep threats in the NFL. Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and Antonio Brown all have at least 23 catches so far this year. Rashard Mendenhall had a breakout year last season, and he is having another solid season in 2011. The offensive line is the weak spot for this offense. If they can improve, this offense will be much more dangerous.

Dick Lebeau’s defense is once again one of the best in the NFL. Casey Hampton has missed the last three games, but he should be back to clog up the middle of the defense. James Harrison is out with an injury, but this group of linebackers is still great. Troy Polamalu is arguably the best defensive play maker in the NFL. The Patriots have had a lot of success in the past against the Steelers defense, so it will be interesting to see what kind of changes Pittsburgh makes this weekend.

The Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games. I like Brady’s track record against the Steelers defense, and I like that they have had two weeks to prepare for this one.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -2.5

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NCAA Football

#22 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Game Preview

#22 Georgia Bulldogs (5-2, 4-1 SEC) vs. Florida Gators (4-3, 2-3 SEC)

“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Georgia -154, Florida +127
Spread: Georgia -3, Florida +3
Over/Under: 49

Earlier in the regular season, it was looking like the Georgia Bulldogs were the SEC East division pretender and the Gators were the divisional contender. In recent weeks, however, a combination of injuries and teams showing their true colors have shaken it down to be the opposite between these two rivals.

Florida got out to a great start on the campaign, steam-rolling opponents and showcasing a very dangerous and cohesive offense. Yet the Gators have lost their last three games and have had devastating injuries at the quarterback position, with starter John Brantley going down a few weeks ago and freshman back-up Jeff Driskel also dinged up. True freshman Jacoby Brissett has been starting for UF, sharing time with Driskel for the last couple games against Top 25 opponents (Alabama, LSU, Auburn). Brantley is finally listed as “Probable” for this Saturday’s game against Georgia.

In truth, the injuries have been far more pervasive than just under center. Listed as “Questionable” or confirmed “Out” for this coming week are the following starters: RG Dan Wenger, WR Andre Debose, K Caleb Sturgis, super-speedster RB Jeff Demps, DE Ronald Powell and CB Jeremy Brown. This type of attrition obviously has had a lot to do with why Florida has lost three straight games against elite SEC West division teams. Florida has had excellent fortune in the past several years; perhaps it was high time for “the other shoe to drop” in Gainesville. Either way, it seems like that is precisely what’s happening in 2011.

On the other sideline, the Bulldogs are a little banged up themselves – WR Malcolm Mitchell and LB Alec Ogletree are big absences, and a few other defenders will be out for only part of the Florida game, due to personal foul suspensions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Freshman WR Mitchell was Georgia’s leading receiver, but QB Aaron Murray has the skill and the weapons to go elsewhere and still be productive.  Tight end Orson Charles is a vital option for Murray, and freshman RB Isaiah Crowell has been a huge help, with 608 rushing yards and four TDs on the year. The Dawgs lost their first two games to Boise State and South Carolina, respectively, but have reeled off five straight wins since then.

With Auburn being the only other ranked team Georgia faces the rest of the season, Georgia has a good chance to finish the season with only two losses and perhaps win the division. However, assuming Brantley is back in the lineup, he instantly brings credibility to a sputtering Florida attack. The absence of Demps will certainly be felt, but Brantley can spread the ball around and the versatile RB/WR Chris Rainey leads the Gators in both rushing and receptions.

This should be a close rivalry game played in the No Man’s Land of Jacksonville (east towards Athens, GA, but still in the Sunshine State), but I give the edge to Georgia because of a few reasons: the continuity Murray has established with his offense, Georgia’s 27th-ranked defense and the blood in the water that opponents doubtlessly smell when they play Florida these days.

Florida will have a better showing than it did against any of its last three opponents, but I don’t think it will be enough to best the rolling Bulldogs right now. Georgia should continue to look like the top Dawg in the SEC East, while Florida seemingly continues its limp to the finish line. Florida has plenty of speed and talent – as it showcased in the first four weeks of the season – but it desperately needs to get healthy.

Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41

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NFL

Week 8: Cardinals vs. Ravens NFL Preview & Free Pick

Arizona Cardinals (1-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

Time/Date: 1:00 PM EST, October 30, 2011
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Broadcast: FOX
Cardinals vs. Ravens Gambling Odds from Bookmaker
Spread: Ravens -12.5
Moneyline: Ravens (-800) Cardinals (+600)
Over/Under: 43.5

The Arizona Cardinals started the season with a win, but they have lost five straight since then. Baltimore is 4-2, but they are coming off an embarrassing loss at Jacksonville in front of a national television audience. The Ravens are heavily favored to get back on track in this one. Can Arizona make a game of this one or will it be a Ravens rout?

Kevin Kolb was brought in over the offseason to be the starter at quarterback for Arizona. Kolb has struggled with inconsistency thus far in 2011. He has seven touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he is only completing 57.8% of his passes. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the league’s best wide receivers, but Kolb and Fitzgerald have yet to get the level of chemistry needed. Beanie Wells is having a breakout season at the running back, but he is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game due to a knee injury. The team no longer has Tim Hightower, and Alphonso Smith will likely get most of the carries this week.

Arizona’s defense has been disappointing this season. Patrick Peterson is an extremely talented rookie cornerback, but this secondary has really struggled against good quarterbacks. It certainly doesn’t help that the front seven has struggled to get pressure on the quarterback without bringing a blitz. Can this unit improve their play and keep the Cardinals in this game?

Baltimore’s defense is currently ranked number one in the NFL in total defense. While Ray Lewis might get the most attention, I believe Haloti Ngata and Terrance Cody in the middle of the defensive line are the anchors of this defense. It is really difficult to find a weakness on this defense now that they have improved depth in the secondary. This team has speed at the linebacker spots, and they certainly have strength and size on the line. Baltimore’s defense is first in the NFL in third down defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Opponents are converting on just 29.9% of their third down conversion attempts. This is a dominant defense that should keep the Ravens in just about every game they play this year.

The Baltimore offense has plenty of talent, but they can be extremely confusing at times. The Ravens ran Ray Rice just eight times this past Monday, while Joe Flacco threw 38 passes. Rice is clearly one of the best runners in the NFL, and he definitely needs to touch the ball more often. This talented Baltimore offense finished with less than 175 yards of total offense against a lowly Jacksonville team. The knock on Joe Flacco has been that he isn’t consistent enough at the quarterback spot. Flacco is completing only 52% of his passes in 2011. Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin are both having better seasons than last year, but they need to get the ball a little more often.

Arizona’s offense will really miss Beanie Wells, and this Baltimore defense is extremely good. I’m not sure the Cardinals score much at all here.

Free NFL Pick: Cardinals/Ravens under 43.5

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NFL

NFL Week 8 – Cincinnati vs. Seattle

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4)

When: 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, October 30, 2011
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Broadcast: FOX
Bengals vs. Seahawks Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Bengals -3
Moneyline: Bengals -155: Seahawks +135
Over/Under: 38 points

The Seattle Seahawks, fresh off one of the worst offensive performances of any team all season long welcome the upstart Cincinnati Bengals to town this weekend. Seattle was absolutely dreadful in a 6-3 loss to Cleveland last week but could get Tavaris Jackson and Marshawn Lynch back in the fold. Cincinnati, coming off their bye will be playing without Cedric Benson who will sit the game out due to suspension.

Cincinnati has rightfully taken their place as a “team of the future”. They have won three straight games and have one of the most exciting young offensive corps. in the NFL. Offensively they are much farther along than most could have predicted and defensively, they are near the top of the league in nearly all defensive statistical categories. Cincinnati is no joke as they have been in the past and they find themselves in the thick of the AFC North division race. It is hard to believe but Cincinnati has a lot to play for this weekend.

Offensively, the Bengals will be without their workhorse running back Cedric Benson. It’s a good thing for Bernard Scott whose running style lends itself well to the Bengals game plan. He will surely be OK. But the onus will definitely be on Andy Dalton, a rookie that has flown under the radar because of some guy named Cam Newton. He has passed for 1311 yards, seven touchdown and five interceptions on the season and is coming off a game in which he threw for 164 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. AJ Green is the real deal at Wide Receiver and Jermaine Gresham is one of the brightest Tight End prospects in the game. Cincinnati appears set on offense and should be a great challenge for Seattle’s banged up 20th ranked pass defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Defense is another unexpected strength of the Bengals. They are 5th against the pass, 5th against the run and are they allow the 4th least points per game in the NFL. Seattle had a difficult time with Cleveland last week – Cincinnati is better!

The Seattle Seahawks better hope to get Tavaris Jackson (game-time decision) and Marshawn Lynch (questionable – back) back in the fold this week. This is a team that only gained 137 total yards last week in Cleveland. Seattle is a much better team at home than they are on the road – CenturyLink Field is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play.

Seattle’s offense has been largely dreadful this season but the game before their bye against the Giants gave Hawks fans some reason for optimism. Then injuries, the bye and their game in Cleveland happened and undid all of the positives.

The Hawks have some work to do on offense if they want to be competitive on Sunday and for the rest of the season. Seattle currently owns the worst scoring offense, the 28th ranked passing game and the 30th ranked rushing offense in the league. Injuries took all of the wind out of Seattle’s sails – health is critical this week against Cincinnati.

Seattle’s 11th ranked run defense will not have to face Cedric Benson this week but still faces a tough test in Bernard Scott. If the run defense is able to do its part, the battered 20th ranked pass defense may be presses into action which may not be the best thing for the Hawks – they lost another starting DB in last week’s game. Seattle’s defense has been OK overall and was responsible for 5 sacks, one interception, on forced fumble and two blocked field goals last week.

Betting Prediction: The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-13 SU in their last 19 games but are 4-2 SU in their last six. They are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road and are 2-4 SU in their last six trips to Seattle. Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorite. Seattle is 2-5 SU in their last seven games but is 4-2 SU in their last six games at home. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games versus Cincinnati but are an impressive 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.

Health is the biggest question mark for the Seahawks heading into Week 8. If Tavaris Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are unable to go, this game could get ugly. Even if the two starters return, Cincinnati will be a handful offensively and defensively. This aint the Bengals of a few years ago – they are young, talented and complete on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati is one game out of first in their division for a reason – they are good.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3

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NFL

NFL Week 8 – Cleveland vs San Francisco

49ers Super Bowl Lines & Predictions

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1)

When: 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, October 30, 2011
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: FOX
Browns vs. 49ers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: 49ers -9 1/2
Moneyline: Browns +385: 49ers -470
Over/Under: 38.5 points

The Cleveland Browns travel West in Week 8 to take on the surprising San Francisco 49ers. Cleveland is coming off an utterly underwhelming win over Seattle last week while the 49ers are coming off their bye looking to build on an impressive four game winning streak. Cleveland has taken a step in the right direction this season but the oddsmakers don’t seem to think that they will have any luck against a 49ers team that is finally emerging as a top flight organization.

Cleveland is certainly nothing special offensively – they own the 22nd ranked passing game, the 29th ranked running game and they are 27th in the NFL in scoring. Injuries have hit the team hard in recent weeks – Peyton Hillis is still highly questionable with a groin injury and wideout Mohamed Massaquoi sustained a concussion along with Ben Watson last week – all are questionable for this week. Montario Hardesty who is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season will likely handle the rushing duties on the back of a 33 carry 95 yard effort last week.

Colt McCoy will have to be the best Brown on the field this Sunday – San Francisco owns the 2nd best run defense in the league and is giving up just 74.67 yards per game. It will be up to McCoy to exploit San Francisco’s 22nd ranked pass defense and will have to do it with Greg Little as the only healthy starter. McCoy isn’t exactly on fire – he passed for just 178 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception last week.

Cleveland’s defense has been great against the pass this season (2nd in the NFL) but has been vulnerable versus the run (19th in the league). With Frank Gore coming at them, it is difficult to imagine the Browns defense having any success at all. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The San Francisco 49ers has the second best record in the NFL after seven weeks – believe it! Coach John Harbaugh has totally changed this franchise around. The Niners have been able to do what all good teams do – run the ball and stop the run!

The 49ers bring the 31st ranked passing game into Sunday’s match. It is hard to imagine that Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Braylon Edwards are going to win the game for San Francisco. Their job is simply to limit mistakes – something that they have done exceptionally well this season. It will be up to San Francisco’s 6th ranked running game to get it done against Cleveland’s sketchy run defense. Frank Gore has been on a mission and after a slow start is 8th in the NFL in rushing with 541 yards.

Defensively, San Francisco has been superb this season – an unflattering 22nd against the pass but an incredible 2nd against the run. They will pose more than enough problems for the injury riddled Browns offense this week for the Niners to seize victory.

Betting Prediction: The Cleveland Browns are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games and are 2-3-1 ATS in their last six on the road. They are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games on the road and are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games overall. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in their last five as an underdog. The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games at home. The 49ers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall but are a miserable 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after a bye.

San Francisco is simply in a different category than the Cleveland Browns. The 49ers running game should be able to dominate this game from beginning to end. Cleveland is banged up offensively and they are brutal on the road. With San Francisco playing at a high level in every aspect of the game, this has all the makings of the blowout of the weekend. 9 ½ points don’t scare me at all!

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 ½

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Fight Club

Free UFC 137 Predictions and gambling Picks

How To Bet On UFC 144

UFC 137 Preview and Picks

UFC 137 takes place this weekend in Vegas and before it even starts there is a certain amount of disappointment. Georges St. Pierre was forced out of his title fight this weekend with a knee injury. Carlos Condit will reportedly get his shot at GSP somewhere down the line.

The UFC 137 Fight card is still littered with quality bouts – every one of which is broken down below with updated odds and picks.

UFC 137: St. Pierre vs. Condit
Date/Time: October 29, 2011, 9pm ET/6pm PT
Location: Manadalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view

Main Card

Welterweight (170lbs)

BJ Penn (16-7-2): -135
Nick Diaz (25-7-0): +105

Two very well rounded fighters meet in the main event of the evening when BJ Penn takes on Nick Diaz. Both men are terrific boxers and both own Black Belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Penn is a legend but is a bit of a fading star that will have all sorts of trouble with the height and reach of Diaz. I like the unorthodox striking and rugged nature of Diaz’s style to prevail in this one. Diaz will reclaim his place in line at his shot at GSP.

Pick: Nick Diaz +105

Heavyweight (265lbs)

Cheick Kongo (15-7-2): +110
Matt Mitrione (5-0-0): -140

In what is the most intriguing fight of the evening, rising star Matt Mitrione will look to use his superior athleticism against the huge and powerful Cheick Kongo. Kongo has all the tools for success but Mitrione has one enormous advantage in this fight – speed. I think Mitrione`s vastly improved footwork will be too much for Kongo. Quickness will open things up for Mitrione’s powerful hands and emerging kicks. It will be a battle with Mitrione extending his unbeaten streak.

Pick: Matt Mitrione -140

Heavyweight (265lbs)

Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic (27-9-2): +225
Roy Nelson (15-6-0): -300

This is perhaps the easiest fight of the night to call. Cro Cop has lost all of the luster that made him the most feared striker in MMA – he is slower, less powerful and can’t take a punch anymore. Nelson isn’t great but he is proficient enough in every aspect of MMA to get it done on Saturday.

Pick: Roy Nelson -300

Bantamweight (135lbs)

Scott Jorgensen (12-4-0): -450
Jeff Curran (33-13-1): +325

Jeff Curran returns to the Octagon after some time away to take on Scott Jorgensen, a fighter that has been close in the past but can`t seem to get over the hurdle. Curran brings experience decent boxing and a tremendous ability to fight off his back while Jorgensen has wrestling, insane conditioning, and tremendous ground control on his side. Expect Jorgensen to grind out a win in typical style and to put his name in the hat once again as a challenger to Dominick Cruz.

Pick: Scott Jorgensen -450

Featherweight (145lbs)

Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2): -350
George Roop (11-6-1): +250

Hioki is extremely well respected – a former Shooto and Sengoku champion. He makes his UFC debut against George Roop who is 2-3 in his last five fights. We have seen it before, over and over – Japanese fighters have a very difficult time in their UFC debuts – I think the same happens again. Roop will be wary of Hioki’s superb submission game (14 subs) and will use his height to keep this fight standing. Roop is exciting and unpredictable – I like the upset in this one! [ad-3573245]

Pick: George Roop +250

Preliminary Card

Lightweight (155lbs)

Bart Palaszewski (34-14-0): +250
Tyson Griffin (15-5-0): -350

Bart Palaszewski makes his UFC debut on Saturday and brings a good all around game with him. However, Palaszewski has shown in the past that he has trouble with high level grapplers. Enter Tyson Griffin who will not only outclass Palaszewski when the fight hit the mat but also in the standup as well. Griffin gets it done!

Pick: Tyson Griffin -350

Lightweight (155lbs)

Dennis Siver (19-7-0): +200
Donald Cerrone (15-3-0): -260

Dennis Siver was supposed to face Sam Stout but now has the tough task of facing the very well rounded Donald Cerrone. Siver is a tremendous striker that has won four straight fights but Cerrone will have a distinct size and reach advantage in this one. Once this fight goes to the ground (and it will), Cerrone will dominate.

Pick: Donald Cerrone -260

Light Heavyweight (205lbs)

Eliot Marshall (9-2-0): +375
Brandon Vera (11-6-0): -550

The Ultimate Fighter alum Elliot Marshall will be fighting for his UFC career on Saturday when he takes on a fighter that once was a prodigy but hasn’t quite lived up to expectation – Brandon Vera. After 3 straight losses (1 was overturned with the positive drug test of Thiago Silva), Brandon Vera is due. He should get it done against the underwhelming Marshall.

Pick: Brandon Vera -550

Middleweight (185lbs)

Clifford Starks (7-0-0): -110
Dustin Jacoby (12-4-0): -120

Dustin Jacoby is riding a six fight win streak but in far lesser organizations – Clifford Starks is undefeated and has fought in decent organizations like Rage in the Cage and Shark Fights. . Look for the youth, aggression and energy and 6 inch height advantage of Jacoby to show up in this fight and to win the battle of the debuts.

Pick: Dustin Jacoby -120

Lightweight (155lbs)

Danny Downes (7-2-0): +180
Ramsey Nijem (4-2-0): -230

Ramsey Nijem, a TUF 13 contestant hits the Octagon with decent wrestling and boxing experience but with limited MMA experience. Danny Downes doesn`t have much more experience in the Octagon but he does have some rounds under his belt against some top tier MMA talent – Chris Horodecki and Jeremy Stephens). Downes is simply the better fighter and brings more experience – that`s good enough for me!

Pick: Danny Downes +180

Middleweight (185lbs)

Francis Carmont (16-7-0): -120
Chris Camozzi (15-4-0):-110

Chris Camozzi is simply one of the more overrated fighters in the UFC – he was cut and brought back for some reason. On Saturday he takes on French fighter and GSP training partner Francis Carmont. Carmont destroyed a very tough Jason Day in his last fight – I expect the same will ring true with Camozzi.

Pick: Francis Carmont -120

Categories
Fantasy Football

Start and Sit – Week 8

Dave B’s Fantasy Matchups – Start and Sit Week 8

Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets and Tampa Bay are all on byes this week. So who are some good options to take the place of the Studs on those teams? Who will fill in admirably for the rash of injured players from the last week or two?

Continue reading “Start and Sit – Week 8”
Categories
NFL

Week 8 Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick & Prediction

NFC East Game Previews- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Date/Time: Sunday, Oct. 30 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
Broadcast: NBC
Cowboys @ Eagles lines by BetOnline.com
Point spread: Eagles -3.5
Over/Under: 50.5

The Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles square-off this Sunday night in front of a prime-time audience at Lincoln Financial Field in a crucial NFC East showdown between two teams trying to desperately stay in the division race. Kick-off is slated for 8:20 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Dallas is off to a 3-3 start straight-up (3-2-1 against the spread) but it could easily be 5-1 or 1-5 given that five of its first six games have been decided by four points or less. Last week was the Cowboys first convincing win as they pummelled St. Louis 34-7 as 14-point home favorites. The total has gone 3-3 in the six games.

Much of the praise and criticism heaped on Dallas this season has been directed squarely at Tony Romo. He has been directly responsible for a couple of ugly losses and one dramatic come-from-behind victory already this year. His costly interceptions as well as his gutsy performance with a broken rib have formed the perfect love-hate relationship with Cowboy fans.

Philadelphia’s 2-4 start both SU and ATS has accented the hate part of its relationship with its fans as this team has woefully underperformed so far this year. The Eagles started the season with a 31-13 victory over the Rams as four-point road favorites and went into their bye last week with a 20-13 win over Washington as three-point road favorites, but everything in between has been forgettable.

The biggest problem with this team, along with a defense that cannot stop the run, is a turnover ratio of -8 that has proved costly in its four losses. If Michael Vick starts taking better care of the ball, the Eagles will get back to their winning ways. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog and the total has gone ‘over’ in 12 of their last 15 games against the NFC.

The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a bye week and the total has gone ‘over’ in 13 of their last 19 games overall.

Head-to-head in this series, Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last five games in Philadelphia and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the previous seven meetings.

Andy Reid is a perfect 12-0 SU coming off a bye in his tenure with the Eagles and keeps the streak intact with the outright win, but stick with Dallas to cover with the 3.5 points.

The Pick: Philadelphia 27 Dallas 24

Categories
NFL

Week 8 Washington Redskins vs. Buffalo Bills Free Pick & Prediction

NFC East Game Previews- Washington Redskins vs. Buffalo Bills

Date/Time: Sunday, Oct. 30   4:05 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Broadcast: FOX
Redskins @ Bills lines by BetOnline.com
Point spread: Bills -6
Over/Under: 46.5

The Washington Redskins and the Buffalo Bills head north of the border this Sunday afternoon for an inter-conference matchup at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The game is slated for a 4:05 p.m. start and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

Washington jumped out to a surprising 3-1 start, but two straight losses have dropped it to .500 on the year straight-up and 3-3 against the spread. Last week, it lost to Carolina 33-20 as a 1.5-point road underdog. This followed a 20-13 setback to Philadelphia as a three-point home underdog. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its first six games.

Injuries are starting to pile-up on a Redskin team that was not that deep to begin with. Running back Tim Hightower and tight end Chris Cooley have been placed on the IR list and are done for the year, while wide receiver Santana Moss is out until mid-November with a hand injury. The list does not end there as a few other key starters remain questionable for this game.

Buffalo is another team that jumped out to a fast start with three straight wins, but after two losses in its last three games, it is 4-2 SU (3-2-1 ATS) overall. This will be the Bills third-straight game against the NFC East after beating Philadelphia 31-24 as three-point home underdogs and losing to the Giants 27-24 as three-point road underdogs before last week’s bye.     [soliloquy id=”82219″]

While Buffalo’s defense is still suspect, giving-up an average of 24.5 points a game, its offense is ranked third in the NFL in scoring, with an average of 31.3 points a game. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a good job managing the game and Fred Jackson’s 601 yards on the ground has the Bills ranked fourth in rushing offense.

The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of their last seven road games.

The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss. The total has now gone ‘over’ in their last seven games overall.

Buffalo has never won a regular season game in the Rogers Centre but coming off a bye against a decimated Redskins’ offense, this Sunday will be its first. Stick with the Bills to win and cover the six points in front of our neighbours to the north.

The Pick: Buffalo 31     Washington 17

Categories
NFL

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants Free Pick & Predictions

Giants Patriots parlay

NFC East Game Previews – Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants

Date/Time: Sunday, Oct.30   1 p.m. (ET)
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Broadcast: CBS
Dolphins @ Giants lines by BetOnline.com
Point spread: Giants -10
Over/Under: 43

The winless Miami Dolphins will try and halt the losing streak at six when they face-off against the New York Giants this Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Kick-off is slated for 1 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.

The turmoil in South Florida has reached fever pitch as Miami’s 18-15 overtime loss to Denver as a one-point home underdog dropped it to 0-6 straight-up on the year. The Dolphins have not even been competitive as they have failed to cover the spread in five of their games with one ending as a ‘push’. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the six games.

The problems with this team are numerous and across the board. Miami’s offense ranked is 19th overall in the league and 30th in scoring with an average of 15 points a game and its defense is ranked 23rd overall and 22nd in points allowed.

New York has had some shaky moments this season, but overall it is clearly the best team right now in the NFC East with an overall record of 4-2 SU (3-2-1 ATS). It is coming off a bye after knocking-off Buffalo 27-24 its last time out as a three-point home favorite. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its six games.  [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The one thing that has held true this season for the Giants is that when Eli Manning takes care of the ball they tend to win the game. He has  completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 11 touchdowns, but has also thrown five interceptions and fumbled twice. Overall the team has a turnover ratio of +4.

The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of their last five games as road underdogs.

The Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as home favorites and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of their last 14 games against a team with a losing record.

The 10 point spread could be tempting given New York’s home trends ATS, but this is a very bad Miami team that has yet to cover this year. Stick with the Giants to add to the Dolphins misery with a big win on Sunday.

The Pick: New York 27      Miami 13

Categories
NCAA Football

Week 9: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Preview & Free Pick

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

Ohio Stadium
Saturday October 29, 8:00 PM EST
NCAA Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Wisconsin (-280) Ohio State (+235)
College Football Spread: Wisconsin -7 (-115) Ohio State +7 (-105)
Over/Under: 50.5

Wisconsin had hopes of winning a national title, but last week’s loss at Michigan State likely ended those dreams. This week the Badgers travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. Ohio State isn’t the team they have been the last few years, but a game in the Horseshoe is never an easy task for an opponent. Expect an electric atmosphere on Saturday night.

The Badgers may have lost last weekend, but this is still one of the best teams in the nation. Russell Wilson has been tremendous at the quarterback position for Wisconsin. Wilson gives the team a quarterback with a big arm and the ability to keep plays alive with his legs. He is completing 73% of his passes so far this year, and he has 16 touchdowns and just three interceptions. While the passing game is very good, it is the Badgers ground game that makes them tick on offense. Montee Ball averages 6.1 yards per carry, and he has already amassed an amazing 19 touchdowns this year. Wisconsin is fifth in the nation in scoring offense at 47.2 points per game.

The Badgers defense has been very good this year. Coming into the season there were some questions about this unit, but up until last week’s loss they had been nearly perfect. Kirk Cousins exposed the secondary a bit last week, and that will be an area to watch in the future. Wisconsin needs to gear up for a heavy dose of the running game this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Ohio State is coming off a bye week, so they have had plenty of time to prepare for Wisconsin. The Buckeyes got a little bit of momentum back with their 17-7 win over Illinois two weeks ago. Braxton Miller has shown flashes of his play making ability, but he is very one-dimensional right now. As a whole, this Ohio State offense is one-dimensional in 2011. The Buckeyes really don’t have anyone who can throw it very well, and they are very weak at the wide receiver spot as well. On the other hand, Ohio State does have a good offensive line and a very talented backfield of runners. Dan Herron is eligible once again, and he is one of the conference’s best runners. If Ohio State is going to win this game, they’ll likely need to get some increased production out of the passing game.

Ohio State’s defense has been the strength of the team over the last few years. The Buckeyes defense isn’t dominating this year, but they are still very solid. This unit has given up large chunks of yards on the ground a couple times this year, but for the most part they have been pretty good. They will face a great running game this week, so it will be a huge test for the front seven.

Wisconsin is the better team here, and as long as they come out ready to go they should win this one and cover the spread. I think Ohio State plays hard and keeps it respectable, but Wisconsin should wear them down with their rushing attack.

Free College Football Pick: Wisconsin -7
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 30 Ohio State 17

Categories
NCAA Football Sports

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Duke Blue Devils Free Predictions

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Duke Blue Devils

Wallace Wade Stadium – Durham, NC
Saturday October 29 – 12:30Moneyline:  Virgina Tech -650, Duke +475
Spread (ATS): Virginia Tech -15
Over/Under: 54
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Virginia Tech

The Virginia Tech Hokies have won three straight since being embarrassed by Clemson.  They are in control in the Coastal Division of the ACC provided there are no hiccups, which seem unlikely.  This is a team that is good and should continue to get better as quarterback Logan Thomas gets more experience.  This is the first of back to back road games so as long as the team is focused Duke should not be much of a concern.

When you have an inexperienced QB it is nice to have the most productive tailback in the country.  David Wilson is finally getting his chance and making the most of it – he is the only back with 1000 yards this season.  Duke is solid against the run statistically but I can easily see the Hokies wearing them down up front.  They can make this a very easy day for Thomas if they want to by keeping it simple.

It is no surprise that the Hokies have dominated the Dookies since joining the ACC.  VT is a perfect 7-0 but just 3-4 ATS so it might be said that Duke gets up for Tech.  I think it is more that coach Frank Beamer has never been one to embarrass opponents for style points.  4 times in seven games Duke hasn’t even scored double digit points. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Duke

After winning three in a row the Duke Blue Devils have dropped their last two.  Even though they don’t have a winning record they can be a thorn in your side, just ask Wake Forest who escaped Durham with a 1 point victory last week.  Duke dominated that game, controlling the ball for almost two thirds of the game but they lost the turnover battle and that might have been the difference.

Duke entered the season expected to have one of the better passing offenses in the ACC.  They had one of the few experienced QBs in Sean Renfree and a couple of decent receiving threats in Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner.  This week will be in tough because on every play one of those is likely to be covered by Jayron Hosely, likely the best cover corner in college football.  Renfree is going to have to make smart reads to give Duke a chance.

The problem for Duke seems to always be defense.  They are second worst in the ACC in points per game allowed at nearly 30 and may just get bulldozed by the Hokie running game.  Not only do they need to stop David Wilson and Co. but they need to get some pressure on Logan Thomas as he is prone to making errors when pressured.  I think that is asking a bit too much for a defense without great talent or even athleticism.

ATS Pick:  Virginia Tech -15
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  Virginia Tech 38 – Duke 24