New England Patriots (5-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST, October 30, 2011
Venue: Heinz Field
Broadcast: CBS
Patriots vs. Steelers Gambling Odds from 5Dimes
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Moneyline: Patriots (-140) Steelers (+120)
Over/Under: 52
It’s a matchup of the top two teams in the AFC this Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Steelers and the Patriots have both won three straight games. New England has had two weeks to prepare for this one, but it will be a difficult environment for the Patriots at Heinz Field. This could easily be a preview of the AFC Championship Game. This is the best game on the schedule this weekend.
Tom Brady has a 6-1 career record against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year the Patriots went into Heinz Field and won 39-26. Brady leads the AFC with 2,163 passing yards this year. He has an impressive quarterback rating of 104.5. Wes Welker has been an absolute beast in the slot receiver spot for the Patriots this year. Welker has 785 receiving yards in just six games. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez give the Patriots the best tight end tandem in all of football. They have combined for eight touchdown catches. The Patriots running game has been better than most expected, which has definitely kept opposing defenses honest. New England is first in the NFL in total offense.
The Patriots front seven has done a nice job against the run this year. Vince Wilfork clogs up the middle nicely, and the linebackers are quick to the football. The issue for New England has been their terrible pass coverage. It is never a good sign when your leading tacklers are in the secondary. New England’s top three tacklers are all in the secondary. The Patriots are dead last in the NFL in pass defense. Expect Pittsburgh to test the secondary this weekend. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Pittsburgh’s passing offense has gotten off to a much better start this year since it has had Ben Roethlisberger available since day one. Roethlisberger has a solid quarterback rating of 95.3, and he has already thrown 12 touchdown passes. He benefits from an impressive group of pass catchers. Mike Wallace has turned into one of the best deep threats in the NFL. Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and Antonio Brown all have at least 23 catches so far this year. Rashard Mendenhall had a breakout year last season, and he is having another solid season in 2011. The offensive line is the weak spot for this offense. If they can improve, this offense will be much more dangerous.
Dick Lebeau’s defense is once again one of the best in the NFL. Casey Hampton has missed the last three games, but he should be back to clog up the middle of the defense. James Harrison is out with an injury, but this group of linebackers is still great. Troy Polamalu is arguably the best defensive play maker in the NFL. The Patriots have had a lot of success in the past against the Steelers defense, so it will be interesting to see what kind of changes Pittsburgh makes this weekend.
The Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games. I like Brady’s track record against the Steelers defense, and I like that they have had two weeks to prepare for this one.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots -2.5
