Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1)
When: 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, October 30, 2011
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: FOX
Browns vs. 49ers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: 49ers -9 1/2
Moneyline: Browns +385: 49ers -470
Over/Under: 38.5 points
The Cleveland Browns travel West in Week 8 to take on the surprising San Francisco 49ers. Cleveland is coming off an utterly underwhelming win over Seattle last week while the 49ers are coming off their bye looking to build on an impressive four game winning streak. Cleveland has taken a step in the right direction this season but the oddsmakers don’t seem to think that they will have any luck against a 49ers team that is finally emerging as a top flight organization.
Cleveland is certainly nothing special offensively – they own the 22nd ranked passing game, the 29th ranked running game and they are 27th in the NFL in scoring. Injuries have hit the team hard in recent weeks – Peyton Hillis is still highly questionable with a groin injury and wideout Mohamed Massaquoi sustained a concussion along with Ben Watson last week – all are questionable for this week. Montario Hardesty who is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season will likely handle the rushing duties on the back of a 33 carry 95 yard effort last week.
Colt McCoy will have to be the best Brown on the field this Sunday – San Francisco owns the 2nd best run defense in the league and is giving up just 74.67 yards per game. It will be up to McCoy to exploit San Francisco’s 22nd ranked pass defense and will have to do it with Greg Little as the only healthy starter. McCoy isn’t exactly on fire – he passed for just 178 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception last week.
Cleveland’s defense has been great against the pass this season (2nd in the NFL) but has been vulnerable versus the run (19th in the league). With Frank Gore coming at them, it is difficult to imagine the Browns defense having any success at all. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The San Francisco 49ers has the second best record in the NFL after seven weeks – believe it! Coach John Harbaugh has totally changed this franchise around. The Niners have been able to do what all good teams do – run the ball and stop the run!
The 49ers bring the 31st ranked passing game into Sunday’s match. It is hard to imagine that Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Braylon Edwards are going to win the game for San Francisco. Their job is simply to limit mistakes – something that they have done exceptionally well this season. It will be up to San Francisco’s 6th ranked running game to get it done against Cleveland’s sketchy run defense. Frank Gore has been on a mission and after a slow start is 8th in the NFL in rushing with 541 yards.
Defensively, San Francisco has been superb this season – an unflattering 22nd against the pass but an incredible 2nd against the run. They will pose more than enough problems for the injury riddled Browns offense this week for the Niners to seize victory.
Betting Prediction: The Cleveland Browns are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games and are 2-3-1 ATS in their last six on the road. They are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games on the road and are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games overall. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in their last five as an underdog. The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games at home. The 49ers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall but are a miserable 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after a bye.
San Francisco is simply in a different category than the Cleveland Browns. The 49ers running game should be able to dominate this game from beginning to end. Cleveland is banged up offensively and they are brutal on the road. With San Francisco playing at a high level in every aspect of the game, this has all the makings of the blowout of the weekend. 9 ½ points don’t scare me at all!
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 ½
