2011 CBB Predictions & Gambling Preview: Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten)
The Wisconsin Badgers are always good but seldom great. This seems like another one of those teams with Jordan Taylor leading the way.
Author: The Wiesguy
The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.
2011 CBB Predictions & Gambling Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores (SEC)
When Vanderbilt’s three top players elected to return to campus this season the expectations for this team exploded.
2011 CBB Predictions & Gambling Preview: Louisville Cardinals (Big East)
It looks like it might be a top heavy season in the Big East. Most polls have Syracuse and UConn in the top five with Louisville and Pitt in the top 15 too.
2011 CBB Predictions & Gambling Preview: Florida Gators (SEC)
I was higher than most on Florida heading into last year. I liked that they returned all five starters and the Gators had a strong season all the way into the NCAA tournament.
2011 CBB Predictions & Gambling Preview: Connecticut Huskies (Big East)
Last year the Huskies were picked to finish 9th in the Big East. If they hadn’t won the Big East tournament they might have sat out the Madness leaving someone else to become champs. This year, even without Kemba Walker, the expectations are much higher, but justifiably so.
2011 CBB Predictions & Gambling Preview: – North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC)
There isn’t a poll I have seen that doesn’t have North Carolina at the very top. It is difficult to argue with that positioning too because even though there are some other very talented teams out there, this one is primarily relying on experienced players who have shown that they are very good at the collegiate level already.
Green Bay Packers vs San Diego Chargers
The Green Bay Packers have sliced through the competition this season. Their last win against Minnesota was the closest any team has come (6 points) although that is a misleading statistic as the Vikings had to score 10 straight in the fourth quarter to close the gap.
Houston Cougars vs UAB Blazers
The Houston Cougars are still perfect, slowly climbing that BCS ladder. They are still a long shot to make it to one of the big games but it would be interesting to see if a top defense like that played in the SEC could stop this Cougars attack.
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NFL Week 9 Power Rankings
Power Ratings
Each week during the heart of the NFL season, and once or twice during the NFL Preseason, we’ll gather the troops around the roundtable and hash out the NFL Power rankings. We check out the stats, looks at the records, and, most importantly, we take a close, close look at the heart of each team.
Seminoles vs Eagles Free Pick
It is safe to say this season hasn’t gone exactly as planned for the Florida State Seminoles. They are essentially removed from the championship picture in the ACC but even though they have little to really play for they are playing much better with three straight victories.
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NFL Week 8 Game Capsules
NFL Betting – Week 8 Roundup
Week 8 in the NFL. The Weisguy takes over for Matt and offers up these recaps for your NFL viewing pleasure.
Toledo Rockets vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois struggled early this season including surprising losses at Kansas and Central Michigan.
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
LP Field – Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday October 30 – 1:00Moneyline: Tennessee -445, Indianapolis +355
Spread (ATS): Tennessee -10
Over/Under: 43.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts are one of three winless teams in the NFL; and if recent performance was the only indicator they are the worst one. The only hope for this team is the old adage that you are never as bad as your worst game, which was a 62-7 hammering by New Orleans last weekend. This team has to still be reeling a bit but the Titans are definitely feeling a little wobbly too.
Everything went wrong last week for the Colts – EVERYTHING. This week will pose a challenge too but the defense should be able to catch their breath against a Tennessee team that was pretty awful last week. The key will be keeping their running game in check. As bad as they have been this team has been close to winning on multiple occasions. They need somebody, anybody to step up and make a play at winning time.
When Peyton Manning was at the helm the Colts had little trouble with Tennessee, winning 5 in a row against their division rivals. Perhaps some of that familiarity will be helpful on Sunday. At +10 I think there is some value on Indy but you have to be comfortable betting with a team that might be the worst in football this season. That is a fair amount of faith. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Tennessee
Tennessee’s performance last week against Houston was surprising. Not that they lost the game but that they were never really in it. This team is sitting at 3-3 but it is hard to gauge their level. Are they the team that hammered Baltimore in week 2 or the team that got throttled last week? One question that is easy to answer is whether investing in Chris Johnson was smart. Nope.
After holding out for big bucks, and getting them, running back Chris Johnson has been a complete bust this year. Tennessee is not blessed with a lot of weapons and now that star receiver Kenny Britt is out for the season they need Johnson more than ever. He has had only one game all season long where he has averaged more than 4 yards per carry. If he can’t get it done against Indy than his and the team’s problem become even bigger.
If Tennessee wants to stay in the playoff race they have to win on Sunday. If they want to avoid the embarrassment of losing to a horrible team they have to win on Sunday. You wouldn’t think it given the opponent but there is actually some pressure on them in this spot. I think they are going to wilt but not collapse. They will win but it will be closer than it should be.
ATS Pick: Indianapolis +10
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Tennessee 27 – Indianapolis 24
Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Longhorns
Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX
Saturday October 29Moneyline: Texas -7200, Kansas +3250
Spread (ATS): Texas -28.5
Over/Under: 64.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Kansas
There is a very good chance that Kansas is the worst team within the BCS conferences this year. They may have two wins but all five of their losses have been by 11 points or more and in every single one of them they have given up more than 45 points. I am not sure what the reasonable expectations were for coach Turner Gill but he is not coming close to them.
I may have been underselling how bad the Jayhawks are on defense above. They are dead last in yards allowed and points allowed per game with an astonishing 50. That’s a FG worse than New Mexico by comparison. The Kansas program used to be competing in the Big 12 but it has really bottomed out over the last few years. Texas, even in down cycle is still favoured by more than 4 TDs.
Kansas has not beaten the Longhorns since the Big 12 was formed out of the ashes of the Big 8 and Southwest Conferences. The closest they have come was back in 2004 when they lost by just 4 points, the only time they have covered the spread in this series. Kansas has always had the lesser talented team and was lucky to not have to face Texas every season in the old divisional format. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Texas
Can anyone really explain what has happened to Texas? I know that quality QB play is essential to winning football but it seems like more than that is going on at a program which, if you can believe recruiting rankings, is about as talented as anybody in the country. This week is the best chance they will have this year to make a statement and have some fun doing it.
One of the problems at Texas is that they can’t seem to make up their mind at QB. I fully subscribe to the theory that if you are playing two QBs you really don’t have one. Last time out David Ash got all of the snaps in a loss to Oklahoma State. He wasn’t very good but assuming they used their off week effectively he should show much better against Kansas. Plus it is Kansas right!
This week Texas should be able to get by with a mediocre performance and still win by 20. however, this team is so skittish right now that I would be hesitant to get behind them in a major way. It might be time for Mack Brown to shuffle off and let someone else inject some enthusiasm into the program. Sorry if this preview isn’t as focused on the game as others but I find the Texas situation so interesting and it is not as if Kansas/Texas is a real game anyway. Sorry Jayhawk fans.
ATS Pick: Texas -28.5
Over/Under Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Texas 42 – Kansas 7
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Duke Blue Devils
Wallace Wade Stadium – Durham, NC
Saturday October 29 – 12:30Moneyline: Virgina Tech -650, Duke +475
Spread (ATS): Virginia Tech -15
Over/Under: 54
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Virginia Tech
The Virginia Tech Hokies have won three straight since being embarrassed by Clemson. They are in control in the Coastal Division of the ACC provided there are no hiccups, which seem unlikely. This is a team that is good and should continue to get better as quarterback Logan Thomas gets more experience. This is the first of back to back road games so as long as the team is focused Duke should not be much of a concern.
When you have an inexperienced QB it is nice to have the most productive tailback in the country. David Wilson is finally getting his chance and making the most of it – he is the only back with 1000 yards this season. Duke is solid against the run statistically but I can easily see the Hokies wearing them down up front. They can make this a very easy day for Thomas if they want to by keeping it simple.
It is no surprise that the Hokies have dominated the Dookies since joining the ACC. VT is a perfect 7-0 but just 3-4 ATS so it might be said that Duke gets up for Tech. I think it is more that coach Frank Beamer has never been one to embarrass opponents for style points. 4 times in seven games Duke hasn’t even scored double digit points. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Duke
After winning three in a row the Duke Blue Devils have dropped their last two. Even though they don’t have a winning record they can be a thorn in your side, just ask Wake Forest who escaped Durham with a 1 point victory last week. Duke dominated that game, controlling the ball for almost two thirds of the game but they lost the turnover battle and that might have been the difference.
Duke entered the season expected to have one of the better passing offenses in the ACC. They had one of the few experienced QBs in Sean Renfree and a couple of decent receiving threats in Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner. This week will be in tough because on every play one of those is likely to be covered by Jayron Hosely, likely the best cover corner in college football. Renfree is going to have to make smart reads to give Duke a chance.
The problem for Duke seems to always be defense. They are second worst in the ACC in points per game allowed at nearly 30 and may just get bulldozed by the Hokie running game. Not only do they need to stop David Wilson and Co. but they need to get some pressure on Logan Thomas as he is prone to making errors when pressured. I think that is asking a bit too much for a defense without great talent or even athleticism.
ATS Pick: Virginia Tech -15
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 38 – Duke 24
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee
Saturday October 29 – 12:20 PMMoneyline: Arkansas -370, Vanderbilt +310
Spread (ATS): Arkansas -10
Over/Under: 52
Odds courtesy of 5DimesArkansas
Vanderbilt Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee
Saturday October 29 – 12:20 PMMoneyline: Arkansas -370, Vanderbilt +310
Spread (ATS): Arkansas -10
Over/Under: 52
Odds courtesy of 5DimesArkansas
The Arkansas Razorbacks may be 6-1 but it is hard to tell their level right now. Losing to Alabama was expected but they really struggled at Ole Miss last week and the Rebels are probably the worst team in the SEC this year. Record wise they may be just a hair behind Bama and LSU but their is a real gap when they take the field.
Against the Rebels QB Tyler Wilson was not very effective completing less than 50% of his passes. The game might have gone a different way if backup running back Dennis Johnson hadn’t rushed for 160 yards. Ronnie Wingo might have more physical gifts but Johnson, who is only 5’9”, is tough to bring down, a la Maurice Jones Drew.
These teams met last year with Arkansas winning easily. Vanderbilt has won only one of five previous meetings between the two teams. On paper this should be a huge mismatch but last week on the road the Hogs played down to their competition and bettors lost as a result. Vanderbilt is a better team than Ole Miss this year.
Vanderbilt
With 4 wins already it is looking like Vanderbilt might make it to a bowl game this season…if they win the games they are supposed. Unfortunately for the Commodores, this is not one of them. They had a very solid win against Army last week but it might be a couple of more weeks until they get win #5 at home against Kentucky. This team is improved but still not really SEC good.
If you are trying to figure out how a team like Vandy is 4-3 all you have to do is look at the defense. They give up only 21 points per game which has masked some uncertainty on offense, specifically at the quarterback position. Case in point for the D, Army completed only one pass last week. I know it was only Army but still impressive in my books.
This week Jordan Rodgers (Aaron’s little brother) will be making his second start at QB and we need to see improvement. Against Army he was ineffective and turned the ball over. For the Commodores to have any chance on Saturday he needs to play a clean game. If that happens and the defense is solid than they just might keep it close. I expect the line to climb as game time approaches so keep your eye on it.
ATS Pick: Arkansas -10
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Arkansas 34 – Vanderbilt 21
