Vanderbilt Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee
Saturday October 29 – 12:20 PMMoneyline: Arkansas -370, Vanderbilt +310
Spread (ATS): Arkansas -10
Over/Under: 52
Odds courtesy of 5DimesArkansas
The Arkansas Razorbacks may be 6-1 but it is hard to tell their level right now. Losing to Alabama was expected but they really struggled at Ole Miss last week and the Rebels are probably the worst team in the SEC this year. Record wise they may be just a hair behind Bama and LSU but their is a real gap when they take the field.
Against the Rebels QB Tyler Wilson was not very effective completing less than 50% of his passes. The game might have gone a different way if backup running back Dennis Johnson hadn’t rushed for 160 yards. Ronnie Wingo might have more physical gifts but Johnson, who is only 5’9”, is tough to bring down, a la Maurice Jones Drew.
These teams met last year with Arkansas winning easily. Vanderbilt has won only one of five previous meetings between the two teams. On paper this should be a huge mismatch but last week on the road the Hogs played down to their competition and bettors lost as a result. Vanderbilt is a better team than Ole Miss this year.
Vanderbilt
With 4 wins already it is looking like Vanderbilt might make it to a bowl game this season…if they win the games they are supposed. Unfortunately for the Commodores, this is not one of them. They had a very solid win against Army last week but it might be a couple of more weeks until they get win #5 at home against Kentucky. This team is improved but still not really SEC good.
If you are trying to figure out how a team like Vandy is 4-3 all you have to do is look at the defense. They give up only 21 points per game which has masked some uncertainty on offense, specifically at the quarterback position. Case in point for the D, Army completed only one pass last week. I know it was only Army but still impressive in my books.
This week Jordan Rodgers (Aaron’s little brother) will be making his second start at QB and we need to see improvement. Against Army he was ineffective and turned the ball over. For the Commodores to have any chance on Saturday he needs to play a clean game. If that happens and the defense is solid than they just might keep it close. I expect the line to climb as game time approaches so keep your eye on it.
ATS Pick: Arkansas -10
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Arkansas 34 – Vanderbilt 21
