The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.
Mississippi State is undefeated but that is likely to change this weekend. This week marks the start of a brutal stretch that includes road game at Alabama and LSU sandwiched around a home date with Texas A&M. Odds are this is a 7-3 team heading into the final stretch.
It is hard to tell how good this Texas A&M team is as both times they took on heavyweights it was clear that this team still has some training to do.
The Buckeyes snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last week against Purdue. With QB Braxton Miller out of the game with a head injury they were able to get the touchdown they needed to force overtime and then win it with another TD.
It was close but no cigar for Tampa Bay last Sunday. Against a desperate New Orleans squad they almost pulled out a win late.
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) vs Carolina Panthers (1-4)
Sunday October 21
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
1:00PM
Moneyline: Dallas -133, Carolina +115
Spread: Dallas -2.5
O/U: 46
Dallas
Dallas is in last place in the NFC East so it has only taken 5 games for things to ride off the rails. Last week they came off their bye week with a spirited loss (with ATS cover) at Baltimore and they desperately need this one because the next three games will be very tough: @Giants, @Falcons and home to Philadelphia. This team has talent but makes way too many costly mistakes. I also don’t like the coach.
Dallas is 6th in yards but just 24th in points so clearly there is a disconnect. There is plenty of blame to go around but you have to start in the pivot with Tony Romo. Romo has more interceptions than TDs which makes it tough to play winning football. It also puts their defense in tough spots as evidenced by the fact that they are second in yards allowed while 20th in points allowed. The numbers just don’t add up but it is Dallas.
Based on talent level the Cowboys should be able to come into Charlotte and get a victory on Sunday. If they do they should easily cover the number and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a blowout because Carolina is not all that good. Still you have to be leary of the Cowboys who could just as easily lay an egg (we have seen it before). If you are going to bet them do it sooner rather than later for maximum value.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
Carolina
The promise of last year’s season hasn’t really played out in 2012. Cam Newton hasn’t looked as sharp and the defense which was supposed to be reinforced by the draft and players returning from injury hasn’t been all that good either. The only positive note so far was a surprising win hosting New Orleans in week 2. Though that might have backfired in terms of setting up some expectations that were hard to live up to.
The Panthers are as close to a one man team as their is in the NFL. Cam Newton is a beast but his passing has been off this year and they are probably running him too much – he leads the team in rushing. Newton may have to scramble even more than expected now that All-Pro centre Ryan Kalil has been placed on IR. Linebacker Jon Beason is also not likely to suit up, weakening an already limping defense.
Carolina had a bye last week so maybe they come out more focused and ready than we have seen this season…its possible. Still they are going to have a hard time stopping the Cowboys while their own attack does not command much respect. Newton is always the wild card, able to make the kind of plays to win games and steal covers when least expected. If you like the Panthers at least wait until it jumps to 3…it will.
Spread Pick: Dallas -2.5
O/U Pick: 46
Score Prediction: Dallas 30 – Carolina 19
Baltimore Ravens (5-1) vs Houston Texans (5-1)
Sunday October 21
Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX
1:00PM
Moneyline: Houston -275, Baltimore +235
Spread: Houston -7.5
O/U: 48
Baltimore
The Ravens got a clutch victory last week but paid the price losing defensive starters corner Lardarius Webb and the omnipresent linebacker Ray Lewis. Those losses will put into even sharper focus how much this team has changed its identity this season. There will be more pressure on the offense but they should be ready to handle it regardless of how things look this week on the road against maybe the best team in the league.
Baltimore is one of the most balanced offenses in the league this year. RB Ray Rice is having another fine season and Joe Flacco has shown glimpses of greatness when called upon. As good as the offense has been though they may want to slow down the pace to help their defense out. Even before the injuries they were giving up a ton of yards – close to 400 a game. But the defense stiffens when it needs to, ranking in the top third in points allowed.
This is such a tempting line to bet into as the oddsmakers might be overemphasizing the defensive losses in terms of their contribution, especially Lewis. I think the Ravens will put together some drives against Houston, enough to keep them in the game until the last drive. Not sure if this one will move much running up to kickoff though.
Houston
Even after losing to Green Bay last week you can make a reasonable argument that the Houston Texans are the league’s most complete team. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
They have a defense that holds opponents down, a great running game and a QB that can make plays when they need to. Sounds like a good combination for making a Super Bowl run…it also sounds like what we used to say about the Ravens.
Defensive end J.J Watt has emerged as one of the most fearsome defensive players in the league this season. In just his second season has has already nearly doubled his sack total from his rookie season. With the defense playing so strongly the Texans can be nice and patient on offense, pounding away at opponents with Arian Foster and Ben Tate. They haven’t been as explosive this year but they are getting the job done.
This is a tricky line as it will be interesting to see how the Texans respond to last week’s loss. Does it linger with them or are they able to put it behind them like good teams do. The Ravens won’t give an inch and won’t be intimidated so Houston will have to stand up. I like the Texans to win but I don’t think they will be able to bury Baltimore by the TD plus that is out there now.
Spread Pick; Baltimore +7.5
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Houston 24 – Baltimore 23
The Saints finally got a win under their belt and then the bye week hit, seemingly stirring up more suspension and Bountygate stories. If they are going to do the impossible and get back in this thing they can afford two more losses by estimation.
Don’t look now but Kansas State is ranked third in the nation, with a chance to improve their positioning big time if they can win on the road on Saturday.
Things have been pretty bad for the Colorado football program…and they are about to get much worse. This is the first game of a brutal stretch of game.
UNLV is one of the least successful programs in the FBS. Their talent level is low because it seems that nobody wants to play there initially, though they do gather some transfers that have washed out of other big time schools.
Another year, another disappointing streak of games for USF. The Bulls are travelling to Louisville trying to halt a 4 game losing streak by beating the best team in the conference.
It has to be sack watch in Chestnut Hill these days, as in how many days until they sack the coach. Everyone knew this wasn’t going to be a vintage season for the Eagles but 1-5 including a loss to Army is below even those low preseason expectations.
This is not your father’s BYU Cougars team. Normally flush with one of the best passing attacks in the nation this year BYU is a stalwart defensive squad with a pair of the game’s best linebackers.
Things aren’t going as planned in Big D (do they ever). After an important win against New York to start the season the Cowboys have been pretty lifeless losing ugly against Seattle and Chicago and beating only Tampa Bay.
The Kansas City Chiefs were supposed to bounce back this season. To date their only win was against a New Orleans squad that was in a funk until just recently.
Last week’s win by the Colts over Green Bay might have been the most shocking result of the season – even more so than the Vikings win against San Francisco.
