Week 12: Tigers vs Razorbacks Odds
College football Week 12 betting action sees the #17 LSU Tigers taking on the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday November, 15th at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville. Cappers Picks provides free NCAA football handicapping tips all season long.
It hasn’t been a pretty season for either LSU or Arkansas so far.
College Football Lines
#17 LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC) @ Arkansas (4-5, 0-5 SEC)
Saturday, October 25th 8:00 PM ET @ Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium – Fayetteville
NCAA Football Gambling Spread: Arkansas -2
NCAA Football Gambling O/U: 47.5
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Despite the 7-3 record, LSU has already dropped 3 conference game, which could have them already doomed come conference playoff time. Arkansas is still trying to win its first SEC game under Bret Bielema.
With both the Tigers and the Razorbacks losing very close games last week, this week’s matchup should be very interesting. LSU came close to knocking off Alabama, taking them to Overtime before succumbing to them. Arkansas took it to #1 in the country, Mississippi State, losing by a touchdown.
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It’s been a series of close calls for Arkansas this season, who are favored in this game despite not earning a single victory in the SEC in the team’s last 17 conference games. It has also been a series of close calls in this particular series, with 4 of the last 5 games going to LSU by 7 points or less.
#17 LSU
Despite the three losses this season, the Tigers are looking to make some very important late-season noise in the SEC. While their hopes aren’t gone yet, they have a long hill to climb to be able to make a run at a conference title berth.
The Tigers were blown out by Auburn, but lost by a touchdown to Alabama in overtime and lost by 5 to top-ranked Mississippi State early on in the season. Now being the underdog in their third straight game, LSU needs to make a statement with a big road victory against a tough team.
The offense has leaned on two key offensive players: running back Leonard Fournette and receiver Travin Dural.
Fournette has been a force on the ground, rushing the ball 152 times for 736 yards and 7 touchdowns. He also has 7 receptions for 127 yards. Behind him is the duo of Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard. Magee has 81 carries for 447 yards and 3 scores while Hilliard has amassed 431 yards and 6 touchdowns on 87 carries.
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Getting the ball to Dural this season is sophomore quarterback Anthony Jennings, who has stepped into Zach Mettenberg’s shoes nicely. Jennings is 80 of 170 passing on the season with 1,266 yards, 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Travin Dural has over half of Jennings’ yards this season, racking up 701 yards and 7 touchdowns on 30 receptions. The only other receiver over 200 yards is Malachi Dupre, who has 12 catches for 271 yards and 5 scores.
On defense, the team has recorded a total of 55 tackles for loss this season. Jermauria Rasco is leading the team with 3 sacks while there are three different players each with 2 interceptions on the season. 6 different players have forced fumbles this season, with half of those causing multiple fumbles.
Arkansas
It’s been a rough time for Bret Bielema since taking over the head coach position for the Razorbacks. Not only is his team winless in SEC games under his tutelage, but the team’s 5 losses this season have come at the hands of top-10 ranked teams.
With the Razorbacks coming so close in so many games, many think this is game where the program can turn the corner – against LSU who just came off a very close loss to Alabama.
In order for Arkansas to pull this one off, they will need their defense to put in work against the potent Tiger offense, much like they did against Alabama last week.
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On the flip side, Arkansas’ tandem of Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins have literally run the ball down opponents’ throats. On the season, Williams has 137 carries for 877 yards and 10 scores while Collins has an almost identical line of 134 carries, 840 yards, 10 touchdowns.
Brandon Allen will be looking to improve upon his numbers this season at quarterback: 144 of 249 passing, 1,726 yards, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions.
Allen’s biggest target has been Keon Hatcher. Hatcher has 32 grabs this season for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Not far behind is Hunter Henry, who has 26 grabs for 363 yards and 2 scores. AJ Derby is the team’s only other receiver over 200 yards this season, with 17 grabs for 253 yards and 3 touchdowns.
NCAA football handicapping trends
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November
- Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
- Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Week 12 NCAA Football Prediction
I tend to pick against any team who hasn’t proven themselves – in this situation, Arkansas, who keeps coming close but falling JUST short of some huge wins.
The Razorbacks, though, have a lot going for them – if that even makes sense. LSU has won 4 of the last 5 but but less than a touchdown.
Free NCAA 4* Betting Pick: Arkansas -2
Arkansas has been playing ranked opponents very tough this season, but have fallen JUST short so far.
Final Week 12 Score: #17 LSU 27 – Arkansas 33
With this potential momentum going for Arkansas and it being a home game, I am going against my own rule of thumb and choosing Arkansas to get their first conference win of the season in this one.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 12 Odds.
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