2011 AAA Texas 500 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: The 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup season may be winding down, but the Chase battle is firing up. After last week’s mayhem at Martinsville, race winner Tony Stewart moved up two spots in the championship standings, now just 8 points behind leader Carl Edwards with three races to go.
Race: AAA Texas 500 – Texas Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, November 6, 2011
Time: 3:16 PM ET (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 3:00 PM ET on ESPN
This week, the circuit heads to the very fast 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway, where both Stewart and Edwards are previous winners. This track has been friendly to Roush-Fenway drivers through the years, with Matt Kenseth the most recent winner here in April. The race will be led to green by three Roush teammates: Greg Biffle (pole), David Ragan, and Matt Kenseth.
• Safe Bet: (odds of 10/1 or less)
Carl Edwards (7/1): In 22 races overall at Texas Motor Speedway, Edwards has made 13 starts and has three wins, making him the winningest active driver here. He swept this track in 2008 and also won the November race in 2005. Edwards finished 3rd here in April after starting 2nd. He starts 7th on Sunday.
• Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
Kurt Busch (16/1): Kurt will start 14th on Sunday and is a previous Texas winner, having won the November race in 2009. Busch finished 10th here in the spring race and rolls off 14th on Sunday. Busch is currently 8th in championship point standings. [ad-8757089]
• Long Shot: (odds of greater than 20/1)
Greg Biffle (22/1): Biffle won at Texas in the spring of 2005 and has posted six straight top-10 finishes heading into Sunday’s race, where he will be starting on the pole. Biffle ran 4th here in the spring and is one of the non-Chase contenders who doesn’t have much to lose by going for a win before the season is out.
Notes: Matt Kenseth has the best average finish at Texas Motor Speedway, followed by Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson.
Kenseth won the spring race here after leading 169 laps. Edwards and Kenseth both go off at 7/1 odds, but Edwards may have the greater motivation as he tries to put gain some distance on Tony Stewart in the Chase standings.
Stewart’s previous Texas win came in this race in 2006.
Kyle Busch, who was tied with Jimmie Johnson as a favorite with 5/1 odds, was parked by NASCAR Saturday morning following a vicious hit on Ron Hornaday in Friday night’s truck race; Busch will not race in either the Nationwide or Cup race this weekend.