Month: September 2011

New York v Oakland

The undefeated New York Jets mauled the Jaguars in their last outing, and now head to the West Coast take on a fiery Oakland Raiders who be focused on erasing a heart wrenching loss to the Bills their last time out.

Venue/Stadium: Oakland Coliseum in Oakland, CA
Time/Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 25, 2011
NFL Odds From: Bet Online
Spread (ATS): Jets -3 1/2
Over/Under: 41

New York’s success on Sunday came primarily from its defense that dominated the Jaguars, holding them to just 203 total yards while intercepting Jacksonville’s Luke McCown four times and dropping him in the end zone for a safety en route to a 32-3 victory on Sunday.

The Jets collected 15 points off turnovers, while they themselves were held to a measly 283 total yards of total offense.

QB Mark Sanchez led the charge, and 17 of 24 for 182 yards with a pair of touchdown passes and interceptions, while the Jets struggled on the ground picking up just 101 yards.

Shonn Greene did cap off a third quarter drive with a one yard touchdown run.

However , those numbers could rise against a Raiders defense that did all but leave the stadium entirely, blowing a 21-3 halftime lead that included the game-winning touchdown with 14 seconds remaining, as they fell to the Bills 38-35.

The blame can be solely placed on the Raiders defense in this one, surrendering 481 total yards to go along with 35 second half points. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

In the meantime, the offense held up its end of the bargain, scoring 35 points and 454 yards behind a rock-solid performance from QB Jason Campbell who a career game, completing 23 of 33 passes for 323 yards and a trio of touchdowns.

Darren McFadden continued to be Oakland’s go-to guy, rolling up 143 total yards with both a rushing a receiving touchdown.

These types of matchup are always tough on bettors, as you never really know which team will show up, as both the Raiders and Jets have proven this in the past.

But this is a new season, and Oakland looks to be much-improved from where they were a year ago, while the Jets continue to make their own improvements after a remarkable 11-5, campaign in 2010 that included a magical postseason run that included wins over the Colts and Patriots.

Matt’s Prediction: Jets 28, Oakland 21 – New York did very well on the road last year, and while I expect the Raiders to keep the Jets defense on its toes, I expect New York to grind away at the Raiders defense, snatching this one by a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Venue/ Stadium: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Atlanta +110 / Tampa Bay -130
Spread (ATS): Tampa Bay -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

The Bucs have not had much success against the Falcons in the last few years, losers of 5 straight against Atlanta, but they have a ton of confidence after last week’s comeback win. However, the Falcons also had a good comeback against a better team and they are also the defending NFC South champion. NFL lines has Tampa Bay as slight 1.5-point favorites in this game with a total of 45.5 points.

Both teams came back to get their first win if the season last week with the Bucs beating the Minnesota Vikings 24-20 and the Falcons beating the Philadelphia Eagles 35-31.

Tampa and Atlanta both have 1-1 ATS records so far on the season and each also have an Over/Under record of 2-0.

Tampa was totally dominated in the first half against the Vikings being out-gained 284 yards to 62 yards and they must get off to a better start and this is especially the case since the Falcons have such a dynamic offense. Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman came alive in the 2nd half and overall passed for 243 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick. The Bucs have a decent WR corps and at least they will be up against an Atlanta pass defense that gave up 314 passing yards to Philly last week.

One key player in this game is the Bucs’ RB LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 71 yards and 2 key 2nd half TD in the win over the Vikings and for the game averaged a solid 5.5 yards per carry. The Falcons’ defense gave up 133 rushing yards last week, but if they can contain the Tampa rushing offense they will win this game since Freeman will, likely, not carry the Bucs with his arm. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Yeah, the Falcons have had their issues on defense, but their offense is solid and the Bucs keep them from lighting up the scoreboard? Tough call. Matt Ryan has WR’s Roddy White, Julio Jones, and TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Michael Turner, who rushed for 114 yards in the comeback win over the Eagles.

The Bucs rank 19th defending the pass and 31st defending the run and stopping Turner may be more important in this NFC South match up. Why? Well, Ryan has 5 TD and 8 TD in his 6 games against Tampa Bay, but the Falcons have won 5 of those games.

Betting Trends

Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games and in their last 6 road games they have an Over record of 5-0-1.

Tampa Bay has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win and in their last 5 home games they have an Over record of 4-0-1.

Jason’s Pick: In an interesting betting trend the road team has covered the spread in 5 straight games between these 2 conference rivals and that trend will continue. The Falcons have given up 9 sacks so far this season, but the Bucs will have trouble getting to him this Sunday and they will also not keep Atlanta from lighting up the scoreboard.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-1) vs. ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-2)

Date/Time: Sunday, September 25, 4:05 PM ET
Venue: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
Broadcast: CBS
Ravens vs. Rams Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Ravens -3 ½
Moneyline: Ravens -195: Rams +170
Over/Under: 41.5 points

Both the Baltimore Ravens and the St. Louis Rams will be looking to rebound from underwhelming performances in losses last week when they square off on Sunday in St. Louis. While the Rams loss wasn’t entirely unexpected, the Ravens loss at Tennessee was shocking to say the least. With redemption on their minds, Baltimore has to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing a Rams team that has been decimated by injuries and has frankly been underwhelming in both of their contests this year.

Baltimore had a bad game last week in Tennessee. The offense gained a total of just 229 yards while committing three turnovers while the defense gave up a staggering 432 yards – 358 through the air. We’ll give them an early season mulligan knowing that Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the Ravens defense will be fired up to take the field and erase the memories of the huge letdown of last week.

The St. Louis Rams are in familiar territory. They have started 0-2 the last five seasons and judging by their play thus far and the injuries that the team has sustained, there is a realistic chance that the team goes 0-3. Both Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams are highly questionable for Sunday’s game leaving Jerious Norwood and Quinn Porter as the only healthy running backs in the organization – ugh!. Danny Amendola is still out and his replacement Greg Salas doesn’t quite look ready for prime time. Sam Bradford is a Stud, make no mistake about it. But without tools to work with, his talents are being wasted. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Injuries will affect the Rams again this week on offense but there is one area in which they can improve. They can stay away from penalties for which they have 17 of this season – 8 for a huge 85 yards last week.

Defensively, the Rams looked OK last week, or maybe it was an out of sync Eli Manning that made them look that way. St. Louis will be without its two starting corners once again this week making for a patchwork group on defense to match that of the offense.

Betting Prediction: The Baltimore Ravens have been incredible in responding to a loss. They have won eight straight games following a defeat. The St. Louis Rams are 4-1 SU at home versus the Ravens and 4-2 ATS in their last six overall versus Baltimore. However the Rams are a miserable 5-17 SU in their last 22 games at home and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on home turf.

To beat a motivated and pissed off Baltimore Ravens squad, a team has to be at full strength and playing at a very high level. The Rams are neither of those. Baltimore’s defense will be strong as ever on Sunday and Ray Rice could potentially have his best game of the year against an undermanned Rams team. This one won’t be close folks! The Rams are in serious trouble.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 ½

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

Time/Date: 8:20 PM EST, September 25, 2011
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Broadcast: NBC
Steelers vs. Colts Gambling Odds from 5Dimes
Spread: Steelers -10.5
Moneyline: Steelers (-510) Colts (+410)
Over/Under: 39.5

When NBC put this game on their schedule before the season started, they certainly would have hoped that Peyton Manning was starting at quarterback for Indianapolis. As it turns out, the Colts are in a state of disarray without Manning. The Steelers were crushed in week one, but they bounced back with a big win last week. Can the Colts play inspired football in front of a national television audience and give the Steelers a tough game this Sunday night?

Ben Roethlisberger, like many of the other Pittsburgh Steelers, had a very rough week one. He played a solid game last week as the Steelers blew out the Seahawks. Mike Wallace has clearly become Big Ben’s top target on the outside. Wallace has 16 catches and 233 yards receiving in just two games. Rashard Mendenhall has turned into a reliable running back for the Steelers. The biggest problem that the Steelers offense has right now is the continued poor play of the offensive line. Roethlisberger is taking too many hits, and the line must improve as the season moves along.

The Pittsburgh defense is definitely one of the best in the NFL. It’s tough to beat a linebacker corps of Harrison, Woodley, Farrior, and Timmons. Troy Polamalu is probably the best safety in the NFL, and he is playing at full strength right now. The defensive line is deep and first round draft pick Cameron Heyward gives them another talented run stuffer. It is very tough to run the football against this front seven. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Kerry Collins was brought in right before the season started to take over the starting quarterback spot while Manning is injured. Collins hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been a disaster. He has only completed 51% of his passes, but the Colts can’t be upset with the fact that he has only thrown one interception thus far. It certainly doesn’t help that the Colts don’t have much of a running game at all. The lack of firepower that Indianapolis is showing on offense right now is definitely a sign of just how great Manning is, and Colts fans can’t wait to get him back. Reggie Wayne has 11 catches for 172 yards already this year, so he is off to another fast start.

This defense has been a bit of a liability over the last few years, but the Colts absolutely need them to step up now that the offense has taken a big step backward. The secondary is solid and the pass rush is very good, but the front seven is terrible against the run. Indianapolis is allowing 137 rushing yards per game so far this year, and they have been one of the worst run defenses in the league each of the last four or five years.

I’m typically not a fan of laying a lot of points in the NFL, especially on the road, but I can’t see the Colts keeping this one very close. There is huge disparity in talent between these two teams right now. The Steelers should win comfortably here.

Free NFL Pick: Steelers -10.5

Kansas City vs San Diego

The San Diego Chargers will show no mercy on a Kansas City Chiefs team that has lost three key players to their starting lineup, when the two division rivals meet at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday.

Venue/Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 25, 2011
NFL Odds From: 5 Dimes
Spread (ATS): Chargers -16
Over/Under: 45

Kansas City has gone from first to worst in just one year, and the news from the locker room is that tight end Tony Moeaki and Pro Bowlers – safety Eric Berry and running back Jamaal Charles – are all out for with season-ending left ACL injuries.

That is good news for a Chargers’ team that has all the right ingredients to regain their roost atop the AFC West.

However, they have yet to show it , and their four-turnover performance against the New England Patriots proves the Bolts still have a ways to go.

The Pats simply pushed the San Diego defense around, scoring drives on all four of their possessions before halftime, en route to a 35-21 win.

The lone bright spot for San Diego was Vincent Jackson who had 10 receptions for 172 yards and two TDs for San Diego, while Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates did not have a single reception for the first time in 34 games.

Rivers will need to do a better job of distributing the rock if San Diego is going to make a serious postseason charge. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

And it all starts this weekend against the Chiefs who have lost four straight and have been outscored 130-27 in those games, including 89-10 this season after matching the worst loss in franchise history, 48-3 at Detroit last Sunday. This just one week after suffering their worst season-opening loss, 41-7 to Buffalo.

The Chiefs committed six turnovers against the Lions, including three interceptions and a fumble by quarterback Matt Cassel.

Can it get any worse?

Well, without Charles, the already poor play Cassel will only be magnified.

He has throw for just 256 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions this season, after averaging 207.7 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2010.

Hopefully for the Chiefs, running back Thomas Jones, arguably the best backup running back in the NFL, can help fill the void left by the injured Charles and shoulder the majority of the offensive load until Cassel finds his game.

Wherever it is.

But at age 33, the Chiefs must be careful not to overwork Jones, so RB Dexter McCluster will also likely see more time in the backfield. McCluster moved from receiver to running back this season but he’s still seeing time at both positions.

This year, through just two games, he has nine receptions and 12 rushing attempts, but has fumbled twice already this season. McCluster could definitely compliment Jones by creating some confusion for the defense, but only if he holds onto the ball.

Matt’s Prediction: Chargers 40, Chiefs 13- The Chargers won four straight AFC West titles before the Chiefs dethroned them in 2010. However, in the past six games overall against the Chiefs, San Diego QB Phillip Rivers has completed 68.3 percent of his passes with 13 TDs en route to a 5-1 record. I expect Rivers to lead his team to a big win in this one as the Charger cover.

Venue/ Stadium: Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: Houston +17 / New Orleans -200
Spread (ATS): New Orleans -4
Over/Under: 53

Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints Preview

The Texans (2-0) are looking for their first ever 3-0 start in their short history, but getting there will not be easy against a Saints’ offense that ranks 5th in the league. The Texans have the league’s top-ranked defense under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but they played the Colts without Peyton Manning in their 1st game and the Dolphins last week.NFL Llines have the Saints as 4-point home favorites with a total of 53.

The Saints looked solid on both sides of the ball in getting their first win last week and they have dominated opponents in winning 5 of their last 6 games at home.
The Saints beat the Chicago Bears 30-13 and the Texans beat the Dolphins 23-13.

Both teams are 1-1 ATS and the Texans have an Over/Under record of 0-2 and the Saints have an Over/Under record of 1-1.

Houston’s Matt Schaub has played well this season and a Saints’ pass defense that ranks 18th in the league must pressure him and keep him from hooking up with star WR Andre Johnson, who has 14 catches for 188 yards and 2 TD this season.

The Saints have been solid against the run this season, as they rank 18th in the league in run defense. Even with last season’s leading rusher Adrian Foster unlikely to play backup Ben Tate has rushed for over 100 yards in the first 2 games. The Saints were tore up by Tate in a preseason loss and if he can run the ball well it will not only quite the hostile New Orleans crowd, but help keep Drew Brees and the great offense of the Saints off the field. Last week the Saints only allowed the Bears to rush for only 60 yards. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

WR Marques Colston is Brees’ main target, but he is out for this game, but the Saints still have many receiving options and last week Brees passed for 270 yards with 3 TD and no picks. The Houston pass defense is the top-ranked unit in the league, but they have not really faced a great passing attack yet this season.

New Orleans rushed for 118 yards last week and Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles are up against a Houston run defense, which gave up 153 rushing yards last week. Mario Williams, Brain Cushing, and rookie DE J.J. Watt not only have to keep the Saints from piling up the rushing yards, but they must pressure Brees in the backfield, as if they do not he may torch the Houston secondary.

Betting Trends

The Texas are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games as an underdog and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Jason’s Pick: The Texans have gotten off to a great start, but facing the Saints they will find out thy are not yet an elite team. Brees will have a big game and the New Orleans’ defense will keep Schaub from doing the same. Take the Saints to win this game and cover the 4-point spread and while Schaub won’t have a huge game he will still lead the Texans to a few scores so the total will go Over.

Venue/ Stadium: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: JAX +165 / Carolina -190
Spread (ATS): Carolina -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers Preview

Cam Newton has gotten off to a fast start to the season becoming the first QB ever to throw for 400 yards games in his first couple starts, but the Panthers are still 0-2 because of defensive issues. The Jaguars are 1-1, but because of inconsistent QB play rookie Blaine Gabbert will get the first start of his young career. NFL lines have the Panthers as 3.5-point home favorites in this game with a total of 42.5.

In their last games the Panthers lost to the Green Bay Packers 30-23 and the Jaguars lost badly to the Jets 32-3.

Both of these teams joined the NFL in 1995 and in 5 all time meetings the Jaguars have won 4 times.

On the season both teams are 1-1 ATS and the Jags have an Over/Under record of 0-2 and the Panthers have an Over/Under record of 2-0.

Newton has over 850 yards passing in his first 2 games with WR’s Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell combining for 453 receiving yards with 3 TD’s. The Jags’ pass defense ranks 14th in the league and they have to pressure Newton up front and keep Smith and Lafell from making the big play down the field since each is averaging over 14 yards per reception.

Newton has not gotten much help from RB DeAngelo Williams, who has only rushed for a grand total of 43 yards averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Newton is also the leading rusher for the Panthers and it has been shown that he cannot do it all. It is also important that Newton cuts down on his INT’s, as that killed him last week when the Packers picked him off 3 times.

With rookie QB Gabbert under center the Jags will look to pound the ball on the ground and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (185 yards 1 TD 4.4 yards per carry), who will be counted on to have a good game.[soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Panthers defense has not played well this season ranking 26th defending the pass and 19th defending the run. Containing Jones-Drew is their biggest issue in this game and their front line D has to pressure Gabbert and make him look like the rookie that he is.

While all the focus has been on the rookie QB’s starting in this game the outcome may come down to which team plays better defense.

Betting Trends

The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and has an Over record of 8-2 in their last 10 road games.

The Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win, and has an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Jason’s Pick: Newton has looked great in his first 2 games, but I still think Gabbert will be a better NFL QB. While both QB’s will play well the key will be Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville defense, as the Jags will win this game and cover the spread. Take the Under as well, as this will not be a high scoring game.