Venue/ Stadium: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Atlanta +110 / Tampa Bay -130
Spread (ATS): Tampa Bay -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
The Bucs have not had much success against the Falcons in the last few years, losers of 5 straight against Atlanta, but they have a ton of confidence after last week’s comeback win. However, the Falcons also had a good comeback against a better team and they are also the defending NFC South champion. NFL lines has Tampa Bay as slight 1.5-point favorites in this game with a total of 45.5 points.
Both teams came back to get their first win if the season last week with the Bucs beating the Minnesota Vikings 24-20 and the Falcons beating the Philadelphia Eagles 35-31.
Tampa and Atlanta both have 1-1 ATS records so far on the season and each also have an Over/Under record of 2-0.
Tampa was totally dominated in the first half against the Vikings being out-gained 284 yards to 62 yards and they must get off to a better start and this is especially the case since the Falcons have such a dynamic offense. Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman came alive in the 2nd half and overall passed for 243 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick. The Bucs have a decent WR corps and at least they will be up against an Atlanta pass defense that gave up 314 passing yards to Philly last week.
One key player in this game is the Bucs’ RB LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 71 yards and 2 key 2nd half TD in the win over the Vikings and for the game averaged a solid 5.5 yards per carry. The Falcons’ defense gave up 133 rushing yards last week, but if they can contain the Tampa rushing offense they will win this game since Freeman will, likely, not carry the Bucs with his arm. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Yeah, the Falcons have had their issues on defense, but their offense is solid and the Bucs keep them from lighting up the scoreboard? Tough call. Matt Ryan has WR’s Roddy White, Julio Jones, and TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Michael Turner, who rushed for 114 yards in the comeback win over the Eagles.
The Bucs rank 19th defending the pass and 31st defending the run and stopping Turner may be more important in this NFC South match up. Why? Well, Ryan has 5 TD and 8 TD in his 6 games against Tampa Bay, but the Falcons have won 5 of those games.
Betting Trends
Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games and in their last 6 road games they have an Over record of 5-0-1.
Tampa Bay has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win and in their last 5 home games they have an Over record of 4-0-1.
Jason’s Pick: In an interesting betting trend the road team has covered the spread in 5 straight games between these 2 conference rivals and that trend will continue. The Falcons have given up 9 sacks so far this season, but the Bucs will have trouble getting to him this Sunday and they will also not keep Atlanta from lighting up the scoreboard.
