Vanderbilt Commodores (3-0) at #12 South Carolina (3-0)
Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia SC
Saturday, Sept. 24, 7:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Bodog.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Vanderbilt +15.5, South Carolina -15.5
Over/Under: OFF
It is downright bizarre to see a Week 4 battle of two SEC unbeaten teams, where one of the participants is the Vanderbilt Commodores. But that’s exactly what’s happened thus far for Vandy, which procured two nice wins so far versus Connecticut and Ole Miss. The Cinderella story may be ending this Saturday in the Palmetto State, however.
Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks haven’t been winning games in an overly convincing fashion, in fact Carolina have been grinding it out against the likes of East Carolina (56-37 win), Georgia (45-42 win) and Navy (24-21 win). With as good as the Commodores looked last week versus Ole Miss, you can’t even predict the Commodores – usually a bottom-dwelling SEC outfit – as a back pocket win, either. Though the Gamecocks “D” has been rather dreadful (save super-athlete D-lineman Melvin Ingram) the offensive game-plan has produced enough to secure wins.
Veteran quarterback Stephen Garcia, and do-everything skill stars RB Marcus Lattimore and WR Alshon Jeffery should carry the offense for Carolina, as usual. The trio should have a productive weekend against Vandy. True, Vandy only surrendered a touchdown to Ole Miss last week, but the Rebels have looked awful and were without their top RB and a starting WR. With a Gamecocks team that has a cupboard much better stocked, look for the offensive talent to get an appropriate yield from the visiting Commodores.
To be fair, you have to give Vanderbilt credit where credit is due. The running platoon of junior Zac Stacy and freshman Jerron Seymour has been really effective, with both backs averaging over 5.5 yards per carry (9.0 yards per clip for Stacy). Senior QB Larry Smith – whom didn’t inspire confidence in anyone before the season – has played well and stayed within himself.
Perhaps most impressive and most crucial to Vandy’s 2011 success thus far is the turnover-hungry defense. The Commodores’ secondary picked off Ole Miss QB Zack Stoudt five times last week and we know how vital turnovers are for the sudden swings in momentum. Garcia is a savvy vet, though, and while it is true he was prone to INTs earlier in his career, he won’t be as easy a mark as Ole Miss’s scuffling pivot. Vanderbilt’s defense has definitely exceeded expectations, but Jeffery and others downfield (sophomore WR Ace Sanders also comes to mind) will create match-up problems for the visitors.
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Very few people would have predicted Vanderbilt to be unbeaten this long; if it can somehow keep the magic intact, South Carolina hasn’t looked too convincing at times – especially on defense. Getting multiple touchdowns dropped on you from East Carolina and Navy will not cut it for an SEC East program that considers itself the top-dog contender this season. This trend makes it look possible that Vandy could get downfield and perhaps drop a few scores on the home team. If Stacy and Seymour keep running well and Vandy’s unheralded offensive line keeps doing its job, Carolina has shown that it isn’t the stingiest outfit this side of the Missouri River.
Yet the same is true for Vanderbilt and the most pertinent detail is that Garcia, Lattimore and Jeffery are far more imposing than anyone the Commodores can roll out. Those guys should do enough for the Gamecocks to snag this home contest, and a convincing win over Vanderbilt – perpetrated on both sides of the ball – would do a lot for Carolina’s confidence moving forward into the teeth of the regular season schedule, despite its cushy #12 national ranking.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 31, Vanderbilt 14
Over/Under Prediction: 45
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