#15 Florida Gators (3-0) at Kentucky Wildcats (2-1)
Kentucky doesn’t like the Florida Gators (though it is fair to say that none of the programs in the enmity-filled SEC East do) and is coming off a tough loss to in-state rival Louisville, 24-17. It is certain that the home-side Wildcats will throw everything and the kitchen sink at the Gators this Saturday night in Lexington.
Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington KY
Saturday, Sept. 24, 7:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Bodog.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Florida -20, Kentucky +20
Over/Under: OFF
Though Florida had question marks last year and going into this season, UF has looked pretty darn good in its games so far. A solid 33-23 win versus an upstart Tennessee team last week emphasized that the Gators could be for real in 2011 and are a very viable challenger to South Carolina for the division crown. The Florida offense has dumped points on any and all comers to this point, so the Kentucky defense must prepare for a daunting challenge. Gators QB John Brantley has thrown for 637 yards so far and do-everything offensive sparkplug Chris Rainey has been getting it done toting the rock and catching it (48 carries for 306 and two TDs, 11 receptions for 214 yards and another pair of scores). When Rainey isn’t carrying the ball, fellow speedster Jeff Demps is averaging nearly seven yards a carry. The 33 points versus the Vols last week was Florida’s lowest scoring output so far; opponents are learning that these 2011 Gators can strike quickly. For his part, Brantley has done an excellent job at silencing the many critics he had going into the season; he’s shown he has the chops to start under center for one of the SEC’s strongest programs. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
For a chance at the upset, Kentucky must keep feeding the ball to junior WR La’Rod King. He has a smooth chemistry with QB Morgan Newton and his three receiving TDs so far show that he is prone to the big plays. The Wildcats have also been respectable defensively, as they rank 18th in the nation in points allowed (albeit the first two games came against Western Kentucky and Central Michigan). If the Kentucky defense plays its best game to date, it has a shot at creating some turnovers, perhaps harassing the statuesque Brantley and feeding off the energy at Commonwealth Stadium. Those elements will be intrinsic if Florida is to leave Kentucky saddled with a loss.
Ultimately, Florida has looked too strong thus far to doubt its ability to come into Lexington and grab a win from Kentucky. Tennessee proved last week that the speedy Florida defense can be scored on, though it is a tall order to exploit the Florida “D” while at the same time keeping Brantley and the offense under wraps.
Kentucky has some talent and has already shown some moxie this season, with a 27-13 comeback win over Central Michigan. The Wildcats are probably stinging after last week’s failure against Louisville and head coach Joker Phillips needs to get his troops to respond with vigor this week against a stronger opponent rather that just lie down and take a beating. If the Wildcats play spirited football, it will go a long way, though there are many tangibles to cross off the list if you want to beat Florida, even when the Gators travel to your turf.
Look for Kentucky to be in this game until a couple of big plays, either some dynamism from the impact player Rainey or some rangy head-turners from the defensive back seven, swing this one too far out of reach for the home side.
Score Prediction: Florida 35, Kentucky 19
Over/Under Prediction: 54
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