The Carolina Hurricanes are among the toughest teams to forecast year-to-year in NHL betting. What’s their identity? They’re a young rebuilding team but they also have a few stars in their primes. They miss the playoffs one year and they make a deep run the next. I can never figure out what these guys are.
Behold, the magic touch of Steve Yzerman! He took over a non-playoff Tampa Bay Lightning team last summer and was expected to gradually improve it with his unique hockey knowledge. But there was nothing gradual about what Tampa Bay did last season.
Each week, the CappersPicks.com fantasy football guru Dave B brings you players you need to be paying attention to – Remember – fantasy football championships are often won by those who live eat and breath fantasy football.
After all of the weekly games are finished be sure to check our waiver wire column, cheatsheets, a who’s hot, and who’s not report plus more in our fantasy football guide.
Preview: It’s race number two in the ten-week Chase for Sprint Cup and the first time that Loudon has been the second Chase race. Last week’s race at Chicago was won by Tony Stewart, posting his first win of the 2011 season and shaking up the early point standings.
In a division that features the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and the “Dream Team” Philadelphia Eagles, few would have guessed that the upstart Washington Redskins would be alone in first place in the NFC East heading in to week three.
Before the NFL regular season got underway, the majority of prognosticators had the New England Patriots and New York Jets clashing for the division title in the AFC East.
The Pittsburgh Steelers wanted to blame their quarterback following a 35-7 loss to the division rival Baltimore Ravens in which they turned the ball over seven times, including three interceptions and two lost fumbles from Ben Roethlisberger.
Through Thursday night, the San Francisco Giants were hanging by a thread in the National League West race.
Losing three of four games through Thursday night, the Atlanta Braves aren’t playing like a team that wants the National League Wild Card.
Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 25 – 1:00PM
Moneyline:
Spread (ATS): Detroit -4
Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of 5DimesDetroitWow, what a performance by the Lions last week. Their hype machine was already humming but when you throttle a team like they did the Chiefs there was no choice for the media to crank it up a notch. After a brief respite at home they are back on the road to face Minnesota, a familiar opponent in an unfamiliar spot against the Lions – home underdog.
The one thing I would like to see Detroit do before I swallow the Kool-Aid is run the ball better. I love their offensive weapons and as long as QB Matthew Stafford is healthy they have a chance to compete with anybody. Their defense is really taking shape although their performance against Kansas City may be hard to repeat with regularity. This is not a smokescreen, the Lions are definitely a team on the come.
The line on this one has already gone up a half point to -4 on the Detroit side. Odds are it will continue to move until kickoff and I would definitely be willing to bet into it until at least -6.5. The Lions will lose eventually but the way they exceeded even last week’s loft expectations indicated this year’s club are the same old Detroit Lions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Minnesota
The Vikings are in a very precarious position right now. At 0-2, especially in the NFC Central, their chances of making the playoffs this year are slim. They are expected to lose on Sunday and when I look at their schedule I am not sure who they can feel confident beating. This is surprising given that they still have Adrian Peterson and added Donovan McNabb in the offseason.
Against San Diego they were dominated and against Tampa they dominated, for a half. It is disappointing that a team like Minnesota wilted the way they did in the second half at home. It was the kind of performance that makes you think things might get worse before they get better…leading to the beginning of the Christian Ponder era.
This could be a real changing of the guard game for these two teams. Minnesota has won 13 straight home games against Detroit – a fact you can be sure the Lions staff are using as motivation. Last year these teams also met in week three a 24-10 victory by the Vikings at home where Adrian Peterson went off for a season high 160 yards. They are going to need some of that and then some to keep their streak going this week.
ATS Pick: Detroit -4
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Detroit 31 – Minnesota 21
Date/Time: Sunday, September 25, 4:15 PM ET
Venue: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Broadcast: FOX
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Betting Lines from betonline.com:
Spread: Cards -3
Moneyline: Cards -190: Hawks +165
Over/Under: 43 points
The Arizona Cardinal travel to Seattle in Week 3 of the NFL season looking to keep the defending NFC West champs winless on the season. Arizona has looked decent this season and could be 2-0 heading into this game if not for a second half collapse against Washington last week. The Seahawks on the other hand have looked dreadful offensively but have been decent on defense. Sunday’s game will go a long way in determining which team is prime to make a run at the NFC West title and which team is destined to underwhelm this season.
Arizona did what it had to do in the offseason – they acquired the franchise quarterback that had been lacking since the retirement of Kurt Warner. Kevin Kolb has been good – completing 61% of his passes, throwing for 560 yards, four touchdowns and only one interception so far this year. Beanie Wells has been a great surprise as well. He has averaged 5.7 yards per carry, has 183 yards rushing on the season to go with two scores. Larry Fitzgerald caught 7 passes last week for 133 yards and a touchdown. What does all this mean? The Cardinals have a reliable, balanced offensive attack for the first time in years.
Arizona’s defense has been a major issue so far. They are 29th in the NFL allowing 466 yards per game and they have the 29th ranked pass defense allowing Cam Newton to throw for 422 yards in Week 1 and Rex Grossman to amass 291 yards passing last week. Strangely, the Cardinals are 11th ranked in points allowed so far.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
There is not a whole lot to like about the Seattle Seahawks so far this year but one glimmer of good news could change their fortunes. Sidney Rice appears on track to play his first game of the season on Sunday. He should help Tavaris Jackson and an offense that is dead last in the league with an average of 191.5 yards per game and last in scoring with an average of 8.5 points per game. The running game is stuck in the mud as well. The running backs have averaged just 47.5 yards per game this season thanks to underwhelming play and a lack of a quality offensive line. That O-line will be without Robert Gallery for 4-6 weeks – not a good sign for a team that has given up an incredible 10 sacks so far.
Seattle’s defense has been their only bright spot and could give the Arizona offense a challenge. They are 10th in the NFL allowing 313 yards per game and are 5th against the run allowing just 3.1 yards per carry so far. This unit hasn’t generated a turnover yet – an interesting stat considering how much that they have been on the field.
Betting Prediction: The Seattle Seahawks are traditionally good at home – Seattle is a tough building to conquer. The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home game but are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the NFC West including 2 SU and ATS losses last season versus Seattle. The Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as favorite.
Arizona is competitive for the first time in a few seasons, something the Hawks have not been able to show just yet. But at home, in their home opener, Seattle could be a different team. If the defense plays true to their form and the crowd is as big a part of the game as they have been, Seattle could be in line for their first win. Seattle’s offense gets a chance to right the ship against a brutal Cardinals defense in what should be a very close game at very least. The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 games in this series – I like the trend to continue!
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3
Date/Time: Sunday, Sept.25 1 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
Broadcast: FOX
Giants @ Eagles lines by BetOnline.com
Point spread: Eagles -7
Over/Under: OFF
The New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles square-off this Sunday afternoon in a huge early-season NFC East showdown. Kick-off from the Linc is slated for 1 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
New York started the season on a bad note with a 28-14 loss to Washington as a 2.5-point road favorite, so this game becomes all that more important to avoid a 0-2 hole in the division. It bounced back last Monday night with a 28-16 victory over St. Louis as a seven-point home favorite, but is still looking for better consistency on both sides of the ball.
The Giants’ passing game took a major hit against the Rams when Mario Manningham was knocked-out of the game with a concussion and Domenik Hixon went down with a knee injury. Manningham is listed as questionable, but Hixon is gone for the year with a torn ACL. The game plan on Sunday will shift heavily towards a rushing attack that features both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, who should have success against an Eagles’ defense that has been extremely porous against the run so far.
The line on this game remains ‘OFF’ as we await word on whether or not Michael Vick will be ready to go after receiving a concussion in last Sunday night’s game against Atlanta. The Eagles came in as 2.5-point road favorites, but ended up falling 35-31 in a game that went ‘over’ the 48.5-point line. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
As of now Vick is expected to play, but if he cannot go then third-string quarterback Mike Kafka should make his first NFL start as Vince Young is still recovering from a sore hamstring. Kafka looked sharp against the Falcons, completing 7-of-9 attempts for 72 yards and almost pulled this game out late in the fourth, but if he does get the start you can expect Philadelphia to actually open as a mild underdog in this game.
Being the underdog in this series might not be the worst thing in the world as they are 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 games, but Philadelphia’s best chance to extend its current winning streak over the Giants to seven games is with Vick at the helm. The Eagles have not only won the last six games straight-up but against the spread as well. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four games.
Assuming that Vick is ready to go, look for Philadelphia to win this game, but if the spread is eventually set at 4.5 points or more, take the Giants to cover with the points.
The Pick: Philadelphia 28 New York 24
Date/Time: Monday, Sept.26 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington. TX
Broadcast: ESPN
Redskins @ Cowboys lines by BetOnline.com
Point spread: Cowboys -5.5
Over/Under: OFF
The Washington Redskins will look to put some early distance between themselves and the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East when the two square-off under the prime-time lights at Cowboy Stadium on Monday Night Football. Game time is set for 8:30 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Washington is off to a surprising 2-0 start and currently sits alone in first-place in the division with the other three teams knotted at 1-1. The Redskins up-ended another division rival, the Giants, 28-14 on opening day as 2.5-point home underdogs and squeaked by Arizona 22-21 as 4.5-point home favorites this past Sunday. The total went ‘over’ the 39.5-point line against New York, but stayed ‘under’ the 44.5-point line against the Cardinals.
Rex Grossman has stayed true so far on his prediction that the Redskins would win the division despite their +2000 odds by directing an offense that has been perfectly balanced between the pass and the run. Washington is averaging 270.5 yards per game through the air and 123 yards a game on the ground.
Tony Romo was goat in Dallas’s 27-24 loss to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point road underdog after two fourth quarter turnovers cost his team the game. Last week he was the hero after leading the Cowboys to a fourth-quarter comeback in a 27-24 overtime victory over San Francisco as three-point home favorites despite breaking a rib that actually punctured his lung. Both games went ‘over’ the total. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
While it appears that Romo will be able to start on Monday night, the line on this game is currently ‘OFF’ until it is made official. Even if he cannot go and John Kitna gets the start, Dallas has some other injury concerns in its receiving corps with Miles Austin definitely out and Dez Bryant questionable with a bruised thigh. Running back Felix Jones and cornerback Terrence Newman are also listed as questionable for this one.
The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Cowboys overall and a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Big D. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the last five meetings, but has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five games in Dallas.
Regardless of Romo’s status, this is shaping up as another three-point game for the Cowboys, so if the line creeps higher than that, take the Redskins and the points.
The Pick: Dallas 23 Washington 20
Time/Date: 1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2011
Venue: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Dolphins vs. Browns Gambling Odds from BetOnline
Spread: Browns -2.5
Moneyline: Browns (-140) Dolphins (+120)
Over/Under: 41
The Miami Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 home games, so maybe they should be glad to hit the road for the first time this season. The Dawg Pound isn’t what it once was, but Cleveland Browns Stadium still isn’t an easy place to play. The Browns lost at home against the Bengals in week one, but they rebounded with a win at Indianapolis last week. Can the Dolphins get into the win column or will the Browns beat them for a second straight year?
Miami allowed 612 yards of total offense in week one against the Patriots. The defense played much better last week, but the offense only gained 306 total yards against the Texans. The Dolphins have just one takeaway over the first two games, but they have committed three costly turnovers. The offense has struggled when they get into the red zone, and that has really held this team back.
Chad Henne is the starting quarterback again this year, despite the fact that he isn’t popular at all with the fan base in Miami. Henne was very good in the opener against New England, but he was a little shaky last week. Daniel Thomas had a breakout game last week against the Texans. He and Reggie Bush will share time in the backfield this season. Brandon Marshall is still one of the best wide receivers in football, and the Dolphins need to get him the ball more often. The defense has some stars, but they need to perform more consistently.
Peyton Hillis is in the cover of this year’s Madden NFL game, and he continues to show just how good of a runner he is on a weekly basis. Hillis is faster than most people realize, and he fights for every last yard better than any other back in the league. Colt McCoy is the signal caller for the Browns. McCoy did a nice job in his rookie campaign with the team, and he is off to a pretty good start this year as well. The team would like to see him improve on his completion percentage, which sits at just 56.9%, but he is doing a good job taking care of the football. Josh Cribbs is the Browns best play maker, and the team needs to find more ways to get the ball in his hands.
D’Qwell Jackson leads the team with 16 tackles so far this year. Phil Taylor is second on the team with 7 tackles. Taylor was the Browns first round draft pick in this year’s draft, and he has looked good in his first two games with the team. The Browns secondary is young, but they are very talented. Cleveland currently ranks second in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. The front seven needs to improve against the run. As a whole, this defense seems to be slowly improving.
Both teams will try to run the football as much as possible in this one. Last year’s game finished at 13-10, and I think this year’s matchup will be another low scoring contest.
Free NFL Pick: Dolphins/Browns under 41
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
Time/Date: 1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2011
Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Broadcast: FOX
49ers vs. Bengals Gambling Odds from 5Dimes
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Moneyline: Bengals (-145) 49ers (+125)
Over/Under: 40.5
Jim Harbaugh was the biggest coaching name to join the NFL this year. Harbaugh will take his San Francisco 49ers on the road for the first time this year to face Marvin Lewis and the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday. Neither team is expected to be very good this year, but both have quite a bit of young talent. Which team will come out on top this Sunday?
Alex Smith was the first overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. It’s pretty amazing that he is still with the Niners given that he has underperformed for so long, but it seems Jim Harbaugh has faith in him. Smith has had underwhelming numbers in the team’s first two games, but he has done a solid job of taking care of the football. Frank Gore missed a lot of time last year with an injury, and he has started the season slowly in 2011. Gore is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry through the first two games. Ted Ginn Jr. returned a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown in the 49ers week one win, and the team will likely try to get the ball in his hands more often this week. Braylon Edwards is listed as doubtful and Michael Crabtree as questionable for this game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The 49ers defense is currently ranked first in the NFL against the run. Ray McDonald does a great job plugging the gap in the middle. Patrick Willis is one of the best linebackers in the league. The secondary is a bit of a question mark, and the 49ers will likely miss Nate Clements, who now plays for the Bengals.
Andy Dalton has been very good in his first two NFL starts. The rookie has thrown three touchdowns and no interceptions in the first two games of the season. The Bengals are really counting on Dalton being a solid quarterback for many years to come, and fans have to be encouraged by his early success. Cedric Benson is averaging 4.4 yards per carry in the Bengals first two games. A big key to the Bengals offensive success or failure this year will be the running game.
Cincinnati is really counting on the defense to lead the way this year. The Bengals have a very talented group of linebackers as well as some impressive talent at the cornerback spots. Nate Clements is now a Bengal, and Leon Hall is one of the better corners in the league. This defense was mediocre last year, but if the Bengals want to be competitive this year the defense will have to rise toward the top of the NFL.
The Bengals and 49ers are not very good at this point, and both defenses are ahead of the offenses. I think both teams will stop the run well and keep this one low scoring.
Free NFL Pick: 49ers/Bengals under 40.5
The Tennessee Titans proved to the football world that they are more than ready to challenge for this year’s AFC South title, and will get another chance to prove they are capable when they host a beat up Denver Broncos on Sunday in Music City.
Venue/Stadium: LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee
Time/Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 25, 2011
NFL Odds From: 5 Dimes
Spread (ATS): Titans -7.5
Over/Under: 42.5
With the Colts out of the way and probably out of contention for the rest of the season, the Titans followed up its awkward 16-14 loss at Jacksonville, with an extraordinary 26-13 victory over Baltimore last weekend that made the Ravens vaunted defense look like a Pop Warner team.
Quarterback Matt Hasselback proved that there’s still some gas left in the tank, throwing for 358 yards and a touchdown, while Kenny Britt followed up last week’s big performance with nine more catches for 135 yards and a touchdown reception.
Hasselbeck has thrown for 621 yards – third in the AFC behind Tom Brady and Philip Rivers – with three touchdowns and two interceptions. (take that Pete Carroll)
In the meantime, the Titans are still looking to get their running game back in order, as preseason holdout Chris Johnson, rushed for only 53 yards on 24 carries against Baltimore.
The Titans defense outplayed the Ravens forcing two interceptions and collecting three sacks to further establish themselves a formidable foe.
Meanwhile over in Denver, the Broncos also rebounded after losing at home to the Raiders in the season’s first Monday Night Football matchup, sweating out a narrow 24-22 win over the Bengals. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Five Denver starters missed the game, including wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. That left just three receivers, including Eddie Royal, who left the game with an injury in the first half. Denver backup quarterback Tim Tebow was called upon to come in as an emergency wide receiver but did not make any catches in his season debut.
Despite the Broncos dropping like flies, the good news is that running back Willis McGahee, who started in place of the injured Knowshon Moreno, posted 101 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.
The Broncos will need a repeat performance from McGahee, who will likely shoulder most the load as Moreno, if he returns, will not be 100 percent.
The Denver defense has also suffered its share of knocks, as Pro Bowl corner Champ Bailey is expected to miss his second straight game. They unit has endured however, with a solid rushing defense that allowed just 72 yards against Cincinnati just one week after holding Oakland to under 200.
Matt’s Prediction: Tennessee 21, Broncos 17 – Denver has won three straight over the Titans, including a 26-20 victory at Tennessee for their only road win in 2010. However, I look for Johnson to get back on the rails, making the difference as Tennessee establishes the running game and wears down Denver’s defense.
