Month: August 2008

Saturday NFL with the Bills at the Skins

BetUS NFL odds: WASHINGTON -5.5, Total 36
NOTABLE STAT: Bills were 30th in NFL in scoring in 2007 (15.8 ppg)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 pre-season

The Washington Redskins (9-7 SU, 7-7-2 ATS in 2007 regular season) will have a “game in hand” when they take to the field on Saturday (August 9) to tackle the Buffalo Bills (7-9, 10-6 ATS) in a pre-season matchup that is scheduled for 7 PM ET kickoff at FedEx Field in Landover, MD, just outside the nation’s capital.

In the BetUS NFL pre-season betting odds, the Redskins are listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with the total posted at 36 points.

Here are some NFL football wagering trends as they relate to this NFL betting matchup:

* BUF has lost five of its last seven games SU
* BUF has lost six of its last nine road games SU
* BUF has covered four of its last six road games
* BUF has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
* WASH has won and covered four of its last five games SU
* WASH has won four of its last six home games SU
* WASH has played eight of its last 12 games OVER the total
* BUF has played nine of its last 12 pre-season games UNDER the total
* WASH has lost nine of its last 13 pre-season games SU

There’s perhaps a little edge for the Redskins here, as they have played a pre-season game, beating the Colts 30-16 at the Hall of Fame Game in Canton on Sunday. So they have already had a look at their draftees, undrafted free agents, and other newcomers, have given Jason Campbell a taste of what their new West Coast offense will feel like under fire, and the league has given brand-new head coach Jim Zorn a baptism of sorts.

But two of the rookies are not going to make an impact in this game. Malcolm Kelly, drafted out of Oklahoma, just had arthroscopic surgery on his knee, and fellow wide receiver Devin Thomas of Michigan State has a hamstring problem. That thins out the options, but it didn’t seem to have a big effect last Sunday. James Thrash is making a bid to be the main man in the three-WR sets, and people like Billy McMullen and Maurice Mann are hungry, and those will be a guys to watch in this game.

There really is no quarterback controversy in Washington – yet. Campbell was 5-for-5 with a TD pass in last week’s game. But Todd Collins, who completed 64% of his passes in leading the ‘Skins to the playoffs and signed for $9 million over three years in the off-season, will be ready nonetheless. And Colt Brennan, out of Hawaii, might be a decent fit in Zorn’s offense.

Buffalo is looking for improvement in its passing game and that is why the Bills drafted big (6’6″) receiver James Hardy out of Indiana, but Hardy may see limited time here because he sat out five days of camp with hamstring problems. For a team that is already holding out Josh Reed, and will be taking it easy with Lee Evans, that might cut down on the options for Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman, not to mention the other QB’s who may see time, Matt Baker and Gibran Hamdan. It will be interesting to see how much time first-round pick Leodis McKelvin gets, especially with Donte Whitmer being likely held out of action.

These aren’t the days of Marv Levy, when the Bills used to literally crawl through pre-season games. But Buffalo still doesn’t try especially hard. Let’s go with Washington, the 5.5-point favorite in the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: WASHINGTON -5.5 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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