2011 Good Sam RV Parks & Resorts 500 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: NASCAR races at Talladega Superspeedway have become synonymous with the word ‘crapshoot’ – making predicting a race winner rather challenging, particularly with this year’s unconventional two-car tandem-style racing.
Race: Good Sam RV Parks & Resorts 500
Date: Sunday, October 23, 2011
Time: 2:19 PM ET (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 2:00 PM ET on ESPN
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When the Cup circuit last visited ‘Dega, Jimmie Johnson came away the winner, but was pushed to victory by the faster car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr. NASCAR is experimenting with some rule changes this time around to try and break up the two-car draft, including a new pressure relieve valve and a larger restrictor plate, but drivers have not reported much of a difference in terms of results on the race track so far. In practice Friday, Greg Biffle paced the first session while David Reutimann led Happy Hour. Qualifying is scheduled for Saturday.
• Safe Bet (odds of less than 10/1):
Kyle Busch (5/1): Kyle has one win at Talladega in 11 starts, in April 2008, and had the fourth-fastest car in Happy Hour. Although he is in a back-up car after cutting tire in Happy Hour, he said Saturday morning that the back-up car is just as fast as the primary car. Busch also had the third-fastest 10-consecutive lap average in final practice. [ad-8757089]
• Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1): Jeff Gordon has one more win at Talladega than Dale Jr., six wins compared to five, but Gordon has made 37 starts at ‘Dega compared to Junior’s 23. Although Earnhardt Jr.’s wins here came earlier in his career, he did finish 4th at Talladega in the spring race this year.
• Dark Horse (odds of greater than 20/1):
Brad Keselowski (22/1): Keselowski has only made five starts at Talladega, but already posted a win here back in April 2009. He finished 10th in this race last year after leading seven laps. Keselowski has been a solid contender since early summer and is currently ranked 6th in Sprint Cup points
Summary: It’s worth noting that Jack Roush announced this week that anyone running a Roush-Yates engine is not to offer help to anyone other than another Ford driver – not only at Talladega, but throughout the remainder of the Chase. It’s an old-school philosophy, but it remains to be seen whether it will prove beneficial over the long haul.
