Sunday Night NFL Betting – Injuries Keep Packers Trending Downwards
When Brett Favre returned to Lambeau Field last season, the visit couldn’t have gone better. Favre threw for 244 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions, en route to a 38-26 win.
What’s in store for Favre’s return visit to the Frozen Tundra? Maybe an easier test against a banged up Packers squad.
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Week 7: Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Betting Matchup
Date/Time: Sunday, October 24, 8:20 PM ET
Venue: Lambeau Field
Broadcast: NBC
Vikings at Packers Betting Lines from JustBet.com
Spread: Vikings +3, Packers -3
Moneyline: OFF
Over/Under: 44 points
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How Can Minnesota Win?
Run the ball, play defense and keep Brett Favre from making any mistakes.
Last week, the Vikings took advantage of the Dallas Cowboys mistakes. This week, they have to take advantage of the Green Bay Packers injuries.
The Packers are without running back Ryan Grant and since he succumbed to injury, the Packers have had no semblance of a running game. They’ve been all pass, all the time, and that has resulted in much simpler game planning for their opponents. The Vikings have the league’s sixth-ranked pass defense and Jared Allen and Ray Edwards should be able to pin their ears back and rush the passer all day long. Playing pass coverage will also be easier considering tight end Jermichael Finley is out for the season and Donald Driver is less than 100% with a bad hamstring.
On defense, the Packers are without stud linebacker Nick Barnett for the season, and that’s in addition Justin Harrell and Morgan Burnett already being lost as well. Throw in Brady Poppinga, who is out indefinitely and Clay Mathews, who should play but is battling a bad hamstring, and the Packers will be without their best run stopper, their best pass rusher, their best receiving weapon in the red zone and the middle of the football field, and their best rusher.
Against the Vikings, that’s a lot to overcome.
How Can Green Bay Win?
Protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers and harass Favre.
Rodgers is holding on to the football too long again and took a season-high five sacks last week, and that’s mostly because he has no help from his backfield and teams aren’t threatened. As a result, they are dropping more men into coverage.
The Packers need a game plan that gets the ball out of Rodgers hands quickly and if they can’t actually run the ball – which they probably won’t be able to do against the Vikings – they need to mimic the run with quick passes and short screens.
The Vikings are shorthanded at cornerback, so the Packers will surely go after them. The Dallas Cowboys picked on Asher Allen last week all game long, and Lito Sheppard gave up three touchdown passes. The other options are Antoine Winfield, who the Packers will likely avoid, and rookie Chris Cook, who missed last week’s contest.
On defense, the return of Clay Mathews, the team’s best pass rusher, would be a welcome sight. He has 8.5 sacks this season despite missing a game last week. The Packers need him in the lineup and they need him menacing Favre all game long because when they happens, turnovers happen.
Outlook
Very quietly, the Green Bay Packers have faded in the last month. First, there was the season-ending injury to running back Ryan Grant. Then there was the loss to Chicago. Then a near-loss to the Detroit Lions, followed by losses to Washington and Miami. With a slew of other injuries now in play, the Packers just don’t have the solutions to the problems right now.
Meanwhile, the Vikings got a big win last week and they’ll carry the momentum. Playing at Lambeau won’t be easy but as an underdog, the Vikings will get the cover and win.
Minnesota vs Green Bay Gambling Trends:
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota’s last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Pick: Vikings +3
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