Bears vs Red Raiders Betting Free pick
Texas Tech (5-6) looked like a lock to make a bowl game a few weeks back when they shocked Oklahoma beating the Sooners in Norman, but they have lost 4 straight since then and must beat Baylor (7-4) to be bowl eligible.
Venue/ Stadium: Floyd Casey Stadium, WACO, TX
Time/Date: 7 PM EST Saturday, November 26, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Texas Tech +390 / Baylor -475
Spread (ATS): Baylor -12
Over/Under: 78
No. 22 Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview
That is easier said than done since the Bears have won 3 straight including upsetting Oklahoma last week. NCAAF lines have Baylor as a 13-point favorite with a high total of 78.
Last week Baylor beat Oklahoma 45-38 and Texas Tech lost to Missouri 31-27.
The Red Raiders did score 27 points last week, but their once dynamic offense has struggled, as in their 4-game losing streak they are only averaging 15 ppg.
One of the main reasons Baylor are double-digit favorites is that they rank 5th in the nation in passing yards per game and they are the nation’s 11th highest scoring team. On top of that the Red Raiders only rank 115th in the nation on defense.
Baylor’s great duel-threat QB Robert Griffin III was stellar in the win over Oklahoma passing for 479 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT and he also rushed for 72 yards. WR Kendall Wright is his main target and has almost 1,300 receiving yards on the season, 10 TD, and had 208 receiving yards last week against Oklahoma. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Red Raiders are better defending the pass than the run, as their run defense ranks 119th in the nation out of 120 FBS teams. Baylor RB Terrance Ganaway joins Griffin in the backfield and he has 949 rushing yards and 12 TD this season.
With the defense the Red Raiders have their offense will have to score a ton of points. In the loss to Missouri last week they had 315 passing yards and 142 rushing yards. QB Seth Doege must have a HUGE game and while Baylor only ranks 94th in the nation defending the pass the Red Raiders may be without 2nd leading WR Alex Torres because of an injury.
Doege may have to do it all, as lead RB DeAndre Washington may miss this game with an injury.
Betting Trends
Baylor is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-1-1 and Texas Tech is 6-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-4.
Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record and has an Under record of 9-4 in their last 13 games as an underdog.
Baylor is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record and has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
Jason’s Pick: Baylor is riding high and Tech is slumping and I think that will continue, as Griffin will have another big game while the Red Raiders’ offense will not be able to keep up. Take Baylor to win and cover and this game should be another barnburner so take the Over as well.
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