Handicapping The 4 Remaining March Madness Teams’ Futures
Well we are down to the Final Four of what has been a pretty staid tournament. On the very first day it looked like we were going to be in for a wild ride but things stabilized pretty quickly and other than Michigan State representing the East region it all played to form, right?
FINAL 4 Lines & Matchup Insight
We have three top seeds and a team from a major conference with one of the best coaches in the business that makes it this far with regularity.
Even though they may not have looked like Final Four material all season long I don’t think you can say they are a shock…the Spartans are not Northwestern.
Final 4 Odds: Kentucky -150
It is hard to know how to evaluate what we have seen from the Wildcats in the Tournament. Sure they have dominated but Notre Dame should have beaten them, right?
If you were hot on Kentucky you should have put your money down at the start of the tournament when you could have got something like -110 or even +100.
Now, even though they are only a couple of games away from cutting down the nets the value is much less but the task is still very significant given we now know that they will likely have to get through a couple of top seeds to win.
Let alone all the pressure to complete a perfect season. Thats a lot for not much payoff.
Final 4 Odds: Duke +300
The Blue Devils knocked off my top pick coming in, Gonzaga, in the last round and are looking good to make the Finals as they take on the least impressive team remaining in Michigan State. Duke is very, very good.
Like Kentucky they are leaning heavily on some very young players but they also have a guy like Quinn Cook on the floor plus it is hard to argue that anyone has a better coach on the sidelines. At their current value you have to like them a lot.
The odds say they will get by the Spartans and if they do they will be facing either a Wisconsin team that they handled earlier in the season and would be in the ultimate letdown situation or a Kentucky team with the weight of the world on their shoulders.
Under normal circumstances they could beat either under these you have like their odds even better.
Final 4 Odds: Wisconsin +400
Originally I though Wisconsin was a little too trendy a pick and that we would be dissecting Arizona hear instead of them. But the Badgers got by the Wildcats to set up their tilt with UK, armed with a nice blueprint on how to beat them provided by Notre Dame.
The Badgers do not have a Jerian Grant clone but I think they can execute what the Irish did to Kentucky with similar efficiency and a lot more size and depth. As a result I like their chances a lot and if they can climb that mountain they would likely take on Duke.
If they are focused they can be better against the Blue Devils than they were in November…and if they are lucky they could get Sparty a team they have beaten twice already this season. At these odds it is very inviting.
Final 4 Odds: Michigan State +1000
I don’t have the numbers but I don’t think that a team that gets to this stage is usually offering such a great payout but this is what you get when you are MSU, a seventh seed and the presence of three top seeds including maybe the best team in a decade or so.
I have a hard time justifying making this investment but the Spartans are no fluke to be here. They have beaten good teams and maybe if they get Wisconsin they follow that adage that it is tough to beat a team three times in a season.
Backing the Spartans would definitely be in the gambling, not expected value line of thinking.
Field other than Kentucky +120
Kentucky is the favourite which creates some interesting proposition opportunities.
For this one you have a chance to take the field at a very promising rate of return. As expressed above I think there is a very good chance that Wisconsin dumps the Wildcats on Saturday but essentially you get a chance to fade Kentucky for a couple of games to more than double your money.
Have they been exposed?
Are they just not good enough?
I do think that either Duke or Wisconsin are pretty good bets on their own (for the payoff) but this one lets you hedge it a little more, with a decent return.
Check out our Updated College Basketball Betting Odds.