2011 Jeff Byrd 500 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: Bristol is celebrating its 50th anniversary of NASCAR racing this year, with the first Cup race held here back in 1961.
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Race: Jeff Byrd 500 – Bristol Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, March 20, 2011
Time: 1:13 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 1:00 PM EST on FOX
Historically, the track has produced some of the sport’s most exciting races, though a 2007 repaving project changed the character of the racing by creating more grooves on the track.
Only a half-mile in length, the close quarters on the track and pit road lead to impatience and mistakes.
The right-side tire that Goodyear brought to the track Friday was deemed to be wearing too quickly, so a decision was made to change tires prior to Sunday’s race, creating a lot of drama as teams hustle to handle the change. “Anytime you change the tire the second day into the weekend, it’s going to be a pretty major change, and it has been,” said five-time Bristol winner Jeff Gordon.
“The car balance is completely different, the grip level is completely different.”
Friday’s qualifying session took place on the old tire, so it’s probably better to look to Happy Hour speeds to assist in your wagering decisions.
Safe Bets:
1. Kurt Busch (9/1): Kurt Busch is off to a strong start in 2011, currently tied for the points lead with Tony Stewart, and is tied with Jeff Gordon for the most wins at Bristol with five each. Although he qualified 20th for Sunday’s race on the old right-side tire, he was up to 10th in Happy Hour.
Busch led 278 laps in this race last year before finishing 3rd.
2. Tony Stewart (10/1): Stewart’s team seemed to be one of best at handling the tire change this weekend. He qualified 13th for the race, then ran 5th in Happy Hour.
Stewart has one win at Bristol (2001), but finished second in this race last year.
Dark Horse:
1. Ryan Newman (35/1): In four trips to Bristol with Stewart-Haas racing, Newman has finished outside the top 10 just once. He qualified 21st for the race on the old right-side tire, but was 11th-fastest in Happy Hour Saturday. 
Summary
: The unknowns are higher than usual heading into Sunday’s race because of the tire change. Teams only had one set of new tires to use for both Saturday practices, with most opting to save them for Happy Hour.
Mark Martin paced final practice with a 124.018 mph lap, followed by Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and current Sprint Cup points leader (tied with Kurt Busch) Tony Stewart.
Odds to Win the Jeff Byrd 500
David Ragan 50-1
David Reutimann 40-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Greg Biffle 10-1
Jamie McMurray 40-1
Jeff Burton 30-1
Jeff Gordon 10-1
Jimmie Johnson 7-1
Joey Logano 40-1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60-1
Kasey Kahne 30-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Kurt Busch 15-1
Kyle Busch 5-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Mark Martin 30-1
Martin Truex Jr 30-1
Matt Kenseth 12-1
Paul Menard 50-1
Regan Smith 100-1
Ryan Newman 30-1
Tony Stewart 15-1
Trevor Bayne 200-1
zx Field (Any Other Driver) 200-1
AJ Allmendinger 100-1
Bobby Labonte 300-1
Brad Keselowski 100-1
Brian Vickers 100-1
Carl Edwards 4-1
Clint Bowyer 30-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 30-1
David Gilliland 300-1
Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
