2011 5-Hour Energy 500 – Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: It’s time for the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit to visit the “Tricky Triangle” – Pocono Raceway – a 2.5-mile tri-oval with three different corners and three different straightaways. Jeff Gordon calls it the “tricky scalene” because of its irregular shape, while Jeff Burton notes, “I don’t get why every racetrack we go to has four corners and Pocono has five, yet it really has three.”
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Race: 5-Hour Energy 500 – Pocono
Date: Sunday, June 12, 2011
Time: 1:15 PM EST (scheduled green flag)
TV: 1:00 PM EST on TNT
To add to the confusion, NASCAR introduced new gear ratios this weekend at Pocono, designed to encourage shifting for those who want to, but creating new challenges for both drivers and teams as they attempt to integrate this option into their race strategies.
Among active drivers, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin are tied with four wins each at Pocono, though Hamlin’s wins came in less than half the number of starts as Gordon.
Safe Bet: (odds of 10/1 or less)
• Denny Hamlin (7/2): As noted above, Hamlin has been the hot shoe at Pocono the past few years, winning two of the last three outings. He won this race last year after leading the most laps (88) and qualified for Sunday’s race on the outside of Row 2. Hamlin has the best average finish here (6.1) and has been to victory lane four times in ten total starts with seven top-5s.
Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
• Kurt Busch (18/1): Busch had to go to a backup car Friday after a practice spin, but that didn’t stop him from scoring the pole Saturday morning. Busch is one of a group of two-time Pocono winners (others include Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and Carl Edwards), though both of his wins came in the second Pocono race of the year in 2005 and 2007. Busch started 4th in this race last year and finished 6th.
Both Penske Dodges – Busch and teammate Brad Keselowski, who won at Kansas last weekend – are on an upswing right now.
Long Shot: (odds of 20/1 or greater)
• Marcos Ambrose (75/1): Though he’s had two straight DNFs at Pocono, Ambrose has finished as high as 6th here (June 2009) and qualified 7th for Sunday’s race. As an accomplished road racer, the new gear ratios at Pocono this year, which encourage drivers to use shifting to their advantage, may prove beneficial to drivers like Ambrose.
Summary:
There were weather concerns for qualifying Saturday morning, but rain held off long enough to get the full qualifying session in, though the forecast for Sunday calls for a 60% chance of precipitation. Look for engine wear and fuel strategy to both play a role in Sunday’s results, as well as the possibility of inclement weather becoming a factor.
Teams will also be taking careful notes on what happens here this weekend, as the circuit makes a return visit to Pocono in August.
NASCAR – 5-Hour Energy 500 – Odds To Win
Hamlin, Denny 3-1
Busch, Kurt 5-1
Edwards, Carl 6-1
Gordon, Jeff 7-1
Johnson, Jimmie 8-1
Stewart, Tony 10-1
Busch, Kyle 12-1
Kahne, Kasey 20-1
Harvick, Kevin 20-1
Montoya, Juan 20-1
Earnhardt Jr., Dale 20-1
Bowyer, Clint 25-1
Newman, Ryan 25-1
Menard, Paul 30-1
Ragan, David 30-1
Kenseth, Matt 30-1
Biffle, Greg 30-1
Ambrose, Marcos 50-1
Keselowski, Brad 50-1
McMurray, Jamie 50-1
Smith, Regan 50-1
Vickers, Brian 50-1
Lagano, Joey 50-1
Burton, Jeff 60-1
Martin, Mark 100-1
Reutimann, David 100-1
Allmendinger, A.J. 100-1
Labonte, Bobby 500-1
Against the Field (any other driver) 100-1
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
