Saturday MLB Betting – Indians vs Rays Preview & Pick
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Date: May 28, 2011
Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Broadcast: STO, SUN
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Rays -178
Over/Under: 7.5 (-105)
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Cleveland Indians (30-17 through May 26)
Carlos Carrasco (3-2, 5.16)
The Indians have made it almost a third of the way through the 2011 season without faltering. We think. The consecutive losses to Boston are a mild concern but not enough to signal a crash back to Earth just yet. The Indians still have the majors’ No. 2 offense even though some of their best hitters, especially Carlos Santana, haven’t truly awakened.
Asdrubal Cabrera continues to lead the charge. Batting .306 with 10 homers already, he’s played like the AL’s answer to Troy Tulowitzki.
Perhaps he’ll help get Carlos Carrasco some run support on Saturday afternoon. That seems to be the key to his success; he has a winning record despite an ERA north of five. He’s had seven or more runs scored for him in half his starts and 12 runs twice.
Tampa Bay Rays (26-23 through May 26)
James Shields (5-2, 2.00)
If Carrasco needs run support to win, he has to be sweating a little with James Shields taking the mound for Tampa on Saturday.
Shields has been absolutely locked in this season, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts and tossing three complete games already.
Shields is just 1-4 against the Indians in his career but he beat them in his last start. He has a 1.19 WHIP and 53 strikeouts in 44.2 innings against them, so his record was clearly just unlucky.
MLB Trends:
Over is 11-5-1 in CLE last 17 overall.
CLE are 8-17 in their last 25 games on astroturf.
Under is 38-13-1 in TB last 52 home games.
Under is 8-3 in TB last 11 on astroturf.
TB are 41-16 in their last 57 Sat. games.
CLE are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.
The pick:
Saturday feels like a no-brainer. Shields is piping hot, the Indians have shown some slight chinks in the armor of late and Carrasco has not been as good as his record indicates. The last time he faced the Rays, they tagged him for four runs and six hits in five innings. Go with the home team here.
Indians vs Rays prediction: Rays 5, Indians 2
