Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Boston Red Sox vs N.Y. Yankees
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It’s hard to believe it, but the Red Sox and Yankees series this weekend is almost irrelevant. Boston still has a faint glimmer of hope in the American League Wild Card race but trails Tampa Bay by seven games through Thursday. So the Sunday nighter on ESPN is more about the Yankees trying to widen their AL East lead than anything else.
Sunday, September 26, 8:05 p.m. ET
Boston Red Sox (84-68, 3rd place in AL East)
New York Yankees (92-61, 1st place in AL East)
The pitching matchup features two talented hurlers who have fallen upon hard times of late.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-6, 4.86)
Phil Hughes (17-8, 4.31)
Daisuke Matsuzaka is just two years removed from an 18-3 season but now he barely deserves the title of innings eater. Dice-K has allowed at least four earned runs in seven straight starts and has walked four-plus batters in three straight outings. Given his 6.31 lifetime ERA against the Yankees – and13.50 this season – it appears he’s in for another long night this Sunday.
It’s not like he can pitch around any one Yankee either. Of the current New York regulars, five of them hit better than .400 off Matsuzaka in their careers: Curtis Granderson (.545), Derek Jeter (.438), Jorge Posada (.500), Mark Teixeira (.429) and Lance Berkman (.500), though Berkman is just one for two. 
Dice-K’s only saving grace is that he’s been better on the road than at home this year, going 5-2.
With 17 wins to his name, Phil Hughes’ first full season as a big-league starter has to be viewed as a success. But his other numbers are a bit disappointing considering how strongly he started 2010. He was 11-2 with a 3.65 at the All-Star break but has gone 6-6 with a 5.27 ERA in six starts since. He’s posted an ERA over 5.00 in three of his last fourth months.
Though Hughes is 11-4 at home, his ERA at Yankee Stadium is 4.84 versus 3.52 on the road. He’s allowed a vicious 20 homers at home as well. David Ortiz and J.D. Drew have both taken him deep in the past and should both get the start on Sunday night.
Hughes is struggling. Matsuzaka is struggling more. That tells me the best bet of all is OVER the run total. If you want to pick a winner, the Yankees make sense. However, considering I’ve gotten nine of my last 10 Sunday night picks wrong, you should bet the opposite of what I really think. Proper logic suggests the Yankees are the better play, so I’ll pick Boston.
Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 9-14)
Pick: Boston Red Sox
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