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Yankees vs. Rangers Betting Pick / Game 1 Preview (Oct. 15)

Shea weighs in with his MLB Predictions for Game 1 of the 2010 ALCS and the New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers. Texas is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees…

MLB Playoff Betting – N.Y. Yankees vs Texas Rangers Game 1 Preview & Pick – 2010 ALCS

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AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
Game 1: Tonight, 8:07 p.m. ET
C.C. Sabathia (1-0, 4.50) vs C.J. Wilson (1-0, 0.00)
MLB odds: Yankees -145, Rangers +135

ALCS Gambling Yankees vs Rangers Game 1 Matchup

Most bettors expected to see the Yankees playing in the American League Championship Series. After all, they’re the defending world champs and they faced a Minnesota lineup missing Justin Morneau in the ALDS. But far fewer people picked the Texas Rangers to get this far.

On the strength of solid pitching and clutch hitting, they upset the Tampa Bay Rays.

Starting with Game 1 of the ALCS in Texas tonight, we’ll see if they can repeat the feat against New York. The Rangers took down power lefty David Price.

Can they do the same to C.C. Sabathia?

Though C.C. Sabathia is like an older David Price in many ways, he’s still a far tougher challenge for the Texas Rangers tonight. He came up huge during the Yankees’ championship run last year, going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in five playoff starts, and he followed suit with a victory over the Twinkies in Game 1 of the ALDS.

Sabathia also has a solid track record against Texas. He beat them the only time he faced them this season, holding them to one run over six innings and striking them out nine times. He’s 8-3 over 14 career starts against Texas, though his 4.29 ERA and 1.42 WHIP against them suggest he’s been a bit lucky.

On paper, the Rangers still have plenty of guys who could hurt him. Righties like Nelson Cruz and Vladimir Guerrero were monsters against Tampa; Michael Young is a .316 career hitter with five RBI over 38 at-bats against Sabathia; Kinsler has taken him deep twice in nine career at-bats.

Could Rangers starter C.J. Wilson surprise in Game 1 just as he did when he shut down Tampa in Game 2 of the ALDS? The Yankees had some noteworthy struggles against lefthanded pitchers this season. Curtis Granderson hit .234 off them and Alex Rodriguez hit .217 off them. Wilson was also 11-3 at home in 2010 with a 3.70 ERA.

But let’s not get carried away. Just as there was no reason to bet against Cliff Lee in Game 5, there’s no reason to bet against Sabathia tonight. He’s just so darned proven in the playoffs that it makes sense to bet on the Yankees whenever he pitches until he proves otherwise. Also, even though he looked great against Tampa, Wilson hasn’t been strong against the Bronx Bombers in his career. They rocked him for four runs and chased him after three innings the last time he faced them. The mental battle of facing the Yankees is still unlike facing any other team and I’m not totally convinced Wilson is experienced enough to overcome it.

Go with the champs tonight. But Rangers fans shouldn’t panic; this will be a back-and-forth series.

ALCS Betting Trends:

NY Yankees are 15-7 SU in their last 22 games when playing on the road against Texas
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 7 games
Texas is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Texas is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Texas is 7-15 SU in their last 22 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

Pick: Yankees -145

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.