MLB Playoff Betting – Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Game 5 Preview & Pick – 2010 ALCS
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MLB Playoff Betting – Rangers vs Yankees Game 5 Preview & Pick
The New York Yankees are officially on the ropes. They couldn’t keep up with the Rangers’ power last night, they lost Mark Teixeira (hamstring) for the playoffs and they got steamrolled 10-3 on their own turf to fall behind 3-1 in the American League Championship Series. A loss at home this afternoon means it’s all over. Can Texas punch its first-ever ticket to the World Series?
AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
Game 5: Today, 4:07 p.m. ET
C.J. Wilson (1-0, 2.02) vs C.C. Sabathia (1-0, 7.20)
MLB odds: Rangers +154, Yankees -164
When the Yankees struggle, they can be really tough on bettors. We get burned because we tend to ignore what’s in front of us and bet with a bias toward their history of greatness; we shove aside the stats and say “these are the Yankees and my gut tells me they’ll find a way to win.”
We find ourselves in that situation today. Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia hasn’t been very good in these playoffs. Over two starts, he’s allowed nine runs, eight earned, and walked seven batters in 10 innings. The Rangers beat the heck out of him in Game 1 of this American League Championship Series last Friday, tallying five runs in four innings. The damage started quickly, too, as Josh Hamilton set the tone with a three-run homer in the first inning.
Hamilton hasn’t slowed done one bit; he has four homers in four ALCS games. While it may seem strange that a lefty beat up Sabathia like Hamilton did, left-handed hitters were actually more successful (.261) against C.C. than right-handed hitters were (.232 this year), so the threat remains. 
Nelson Cruz and Bengie Molina both went yard along with Hamilton (twice) last night and are proving to be equally clutch. That doesn’t even factor in Vladimir Guerrero, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. These Rangers are mashing and playing with amazing confidence right now. They’re 5-0 on the road in the 2010 playoffs and have outscored opponents 30-5 in those games. The numbers and series history thus far overwhelmingly favor Texas for today’s matchup. Do the Yankees have a chance?
Let’s dig deeper. Sabathia reportedly spent extra time in his bullpen session this week, not leaving until he was convinced he had worked out his kinks. He also proved resilient during the 2010 regular season. Sabathia allowed five or more runs in seven starts. But how did he respond after those poor outings? Six times, he bounced back to allow three runs or fewer. In five of those rebound starts, he allowed one run or fewer. In three of those starts, he tossed a shutout.
Sabathia’s ERA this year after allowing five or more runs in his previous start: 1.73. Now we know that betting on him today isn’t just a “hunch” on the ace; it’s an educated pick. Sabathia bounces back extremely strong almost every time after a poor start. To top it off, he was 8-3 with a 2.67 ERA in day games this year.
But what about Texas’ C.J. Wilson? He was quite competent in Game 1, holding the Yankees to three runs in seven innings. However, he did serve up a homer to the red-hot Robinson Cano, who hasn’t slowed down one bit. Also, even though the Yankees won’t have Mark Teixeira tonight, it’s not like he was contributing much anyway; Texas was 0 for 14 in this series. Lastly, C.J. Wilson doesn’t go deep into games. Including the regular season and playoffs, he’s pitched fewer than seven innings in six of his last eight starts. That means he’ll give way to the Rangers’ bullpen relatively early. When he exited after seven innings in Game 1, the Texas pen blew the game. They were better last night but got bailed out by what should’ve been a hit batter with the bases loaded (a ball grazed Nick Swisher’s pant leg).
I wasn’t convinced the Yankees could survive but, after crunching the numbers, I am now. Pick New York to win one more game.
ALCS Betting Trends:
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas’s last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees’s last 8 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees’s last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 7 games at home
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees’s last 9 games when playing at home against Texas
Pick: Yankees -164
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