NFL Week 11 Parlay Picks – Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5)
Sunday, November 22 – 1:00 PM ET
(O/U) 43
The Bill fired head coach Dick Jauron on Tuesday, a move that came about 12 weeks too late if you ask me.
Buffalo has been so inept this season that not even controversial wide receiver Terrell Owens can get worked up to his normally divisive standards.
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The only thing on Owens’ agenda these days is likely hopping on the first plane out of Buffalo as soon as the Bills’ regular season comes to a screeching halt.
The organization has named defensive coordinator Perry Fewell as the team’s interim head coach – and Fewell has made a smart move in my estimation by immediately naming veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick as the team’s starting quarterback over former starter Trent Edwards.
Now, riding a two-game losing streak, the reeling Bills will visit a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has won two consecutive games and three of four coming into this matchup.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Bills are 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jaguars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
Jaguars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
What the Bills Need to do to win
Buffalo needs to force a few turnovers if they are to have any chance of beating a Jacksonville team that appears to be gathering a bit of momentum after an inconsistent start.
In the team’s last win, a 20-9 victory over the Carolina Panthers, the Bills picked off Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme three times and got a solid effort from Fitzpatrick as well.
Buffalo’s offensive line also needs to come to play in this contest. Fitzpatrick needs time to throw the ball and the Bills need to open up some holes for running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has not gained over 69 yards in any of the six games he’s played in this season.
Last but certainly not least, the Bills need to bottle up Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew who comes into this matchup having rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games.
What the Jaguars Need to do to win
Jacksonville simply needs to continue doing what they have done in each of their last two games – give the ball to Jones-Drew and block like crazy for the ‘bowling ball’ back.
If David Garrard can avoid throwing any interceptions and Jacksonville’s defense can keep Owens, Lee Evans and Lynch out of the end zone for the majority of the game, the Jags will be in good shape.
Analysis: I like the Jacksonville Jaguars to win this contest and extend their modest two-game winning streak – I just don’t like them to cover the high 8.5-point NFL point spread.
The Jaguars have a winning record coming into this matchup, but have recorded only one of their five wins by more than seven points this season and that came over a reeling Titans team back in Week 4.
Buffalo has gone a respectable 2-2 ATS over their last four and I believe the change in head coaches will reinvigorate them in this contest and help them cover the spread against a Jaguars team that isn’t very explosive on offense.
I also like the fact that the Bills have gone an impressive 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games while the Jags have gone a dismal 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
More ATS trends that point to a Bills NFL point spread payday are the facts that Buffalo has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings between these teams while the underdog in this series has gone a consistent 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
The Bills may not win this matchup, BetUS NFL pro football bettors, but I say they cover the spread while the final score plays Under the 43-point O/U total.
NFL Free Picks: Bills +8½ Points/Over 43 Total Points
