Articles by Cappers Picks related to online NCAA Football betting, and handicapping live CFB matchups.
Nebraska fans have been waiting for their team to play up to its full potential. It finally happened last weekend when Nebraska dominated Michigan State. Northwestern had high hopes coming into the season, but the team is just 3-5 and they are in danger of not making a bowl game.
It is safe to say this season hasn’t gone exactly as planned for the Florida State Seminoles. They are essentially removed from the championship picture in the ACC but even though they have little to really play for they are playing much better with three straight victories.
The lead in the Big East Conference will be on the line this Saturday afternoon when the Louisville Cardinals tangle with the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown.
The Cincinnati Bearcats will try and take another step closer to winning this season’s Big East title when they travel to Heinz Field this Saturday night for a showdown with the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Two straight weeks the Wisconsin Badgers have mounted a big fourth quarter comeback, only to lose the game in the final minute. Wisconsin was squarely in the national title hunt just a couple weeks ago, but now they are fighting for their lives in the Big Ten.
Brady Hoke has certainly had a successful start to his time at Michigan. The Wolverines are 7-1 so far this year, and the defense has been light-years better than last season. Michigan is only 1-1 on the road this year, and they’ll get a tough road test this week at Iowa.
Kinnick Stadium
Saturday November 5, 12:00 PM EST
NCAA Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Michigan (-175) Iowa (+155)
College Football Spread: Michigan -4 (-110) Iowa +4 (-110)
Over/Under: 57
The Hawkeyes are coming off a very disappointing loss at Minnesota. Expect Kirk Ferentz to push the team really hard in practice this week. How will the Hawkeyes respond this Saturday?
Denard Robinson is the main man for the Michigan offense. Robinson actually isn’t having quite the season he did last year, but he is still one of the most dynamic players in football. Michigan will need Robinson to become more accurate throwing the football. He has thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions this year, and he is completing just 55% of his pass attempts. The best news for Michigan’s offense this year has been the emergence of Fitzgerald Touissant at the running back spot. Touissant is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and he is taking some pressure off Robinson.
The primary reason Michigan is 7-1 right now is the much improved play of their defense. The Wolverines defense ranks 28th in the nation in total defense. Michigan is forcing turnovers at such a high rate that opponents are only scoring 14.6 points per game on them this year. Mike Martin is the leader on the defensive front, and Jordan Kovacs has stepped up in the secondary.
The Iowa Hawkeyes were 14.5 point favorites at Minnesota last week, but they managed to lose the game. The Hawkeyes are now 5-0 at home this year, but 0-3 on the road. The bad news is they now face a very talented Michigan football team. The good news is they will be in front of their home crowd at Kinnick Stadium. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
James Vandenburg is having a very good first year as Iowa’s starting quarterback. Vandenburg is completing 62% of his passes, and he has thrown 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions this year. Marvin McNutt is clearly the team’s go to guy on the outside. McNutt has 48 catches and nine touchdowns in 2011. The Iowa offensive line hasn’t been as dominant as normal, and that has hurt the offense quite a bit this year. Marcus Coker is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, but he has struggled against top defenses.
The Iowa defense has been very disappointing this season. They did lose a lot of talent from last year’s squad, but most expected them to still be a strength for this team. Despite having two very solid cover corners; Iowa is just 80th out of 120 teams in pass defense. The Hawkeyes are also allowing 164 yards per game on the ground. This unit needs to play better.
Michigan is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Iowa is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Iowa should be very motivated in this one, and I think they have a solid chance at an outright upset.
Free College Football Pick: Iowa +4
Score Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 21
Minnesota is coming off a shocking home win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. Jerry Kill’s team was a huge 14.5 point underdog in that win. The Golden Gophers will be looking to carry some momentum into a very tough road test against Michigan State.
Spartan Stadium
Saturday November 5, 12:00 PM EST
NCAA Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Off
College Football Spread: Michigan State -27.5 (-110) Minnesota +27.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 46.5
The Spartans are coming off a disappointing loss at Nebraska, and one would imagine they’ll be anxious to get back on track in this one.
Minnesota now has its best play maker healthy once again. MarQueis Gray has struggled with injuries some this year, but he is back at nearly full strength now. Gray is the team’s quarterback, but he is also probably their best runner. Gray has run for 500 yards on just 105 carries this season. He still needs to work on his accuracy in the passing game, but he does have the ability to improvise. The offensive line is very dinged up right now, which could be a big problem against Michigan State’s terrific defensive front. The team needs to find a way to get the ball to Da’Jon McKnight more often, since he is a game-changer at the wide receiver spot.
The Golden Gophers defense has struggled this season. This unit is allowing 34 points per game so far this year. They are particularly bad against the run. Opponents are gaining 202 yards per game on the ground. Troy Stoudemire is the team’s best cover corner, but he is listed as questionable for this game because of a wrist injury. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
How has Michigan State gone 6-2 through such a difficult schedule so far in 2011? It has been the amazing play of their defense. The Spartans rank second in the nation in total defense. The pass defense is first in the nation, and they are only allowing a meager 127 passing yards per contest. Jerrell Worthy is the anchor up front for this defense. Isaiah Lewis leads the team with four interceptions. Michigan State is allowing just 15 points per game.
Kirk Cousins is the senior leader under center for the Spartans offense. This is his third year as the team’s starting quarterback, and he knows the system extremely well. B.J. Cunningham has 48 catches already this year, but none of them came last week against Nebraska. The Spartans will need to get him involved in the offense again this week. Michigan State has a pair of very talented running backs. Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker both have over 400 yards rushing already this year. Expect Michigan State to try to establish the run early on against this weak Golden Gophers rushing defense.
Minnesota had a nice win last week, but I think it will be back to reality this week for the Golden Gophers. They were beaten 58-0 at Michigan, and I think Michigan State will be ready to wallop them this weekend.
Free College Football Pick: Michigan State -27.5
Score Prediction: Michigan State 45 Minnesota 7
The Temple Owls and the Ohio Bobcats have been at the forefront of the race for the Mid-American Conference’s East Division title the last few years.
It is a West verse East showdown in Conference-USA when the Tulsa Golden Hurricane square-off against the Central Florida Knights this Thursday night in Orlando.
Northern Illinois struggled early this season including surprising losses at Kansas and Central Michigan.
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville TN
Saturday, October 29, 7:15 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Carolina -170, Tennessee +150
Spread: Carolina -3.5, Tennessee +3.5
Over/Under: 44
When healthy, the Tennessee Volunteers have some dynamic elements that are developing nicely, but recent weeks have shown that UT is still a long way away from where they need to be in the East division.
The Vols have been shellacked in consecutive weeks by the big boys in the SEC – Alabama and LSU. In those two losses, Tennessee has scored a combined 13 points, while the defense has given up a combined whopping 75. That is a two-week stretch which certainly will not inspire confidence.
To be fair, the Vols have had a couple reasons to belly-ache and make excuses. Injuries have compromised the most skilled region of the team – the passing game. Starting pivot Tyler Bray has been out for several weeks now with a thumb ailment and key target, WR Justin Hunter, is out for the year with a knee injury. Freshman DeAnthony Arnett is doing his best to replace Hunter, but he can’t bring quite the same dynamic Hunter has with his speed. Herman Lathers, a starting LB, is also on the shelf.
The Vols would have been in tough playing ’Bama and LSU even with a perfectly healthy squad – with a diluted vertical passing game, Tennessee was screwed from the word “Go.” Tennessee scored more than 40 points in three of the first four weeks, but since the injuries, the prolific offense has slowed to a trickle. Matt Simms, the veteran charged with replacing Bray under center, has played quite miserably. He’s never lived up to expectations and without the big arm of Bray, the Vols just don’t have the same explosiveness. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It hasn’t always been pretty for South Carolina, but it’s been effective for the most part in 2011. The Gamecocks’ only blemish is a narrow 16-13 loss versus Auburn, and Carolina has persevered through kicking former starting QB Stephen Garcia off the team, sophomore Connor Shaw stepping in to take his place and a ghastly knee injury for starting workhorse RB Marcus Lattimore. Shaw has shown he is up for the job, but losing Lattimore is a major blow for the Gamecocks for the rest of the season. Lattimore had registered 818 rushing yards and 10 TDs on the season, he would have cruised well past 1,000 yards had he stayed healthy. A reliable RB is also all the more vital with a young starting pivot that may experience growing pains.
Carolina will have to rely more on Shaw’s athleticism and his developing ability to hook up aerially with WR Alshon Jeffery – Carolina’s best remaining healthy target – and Ace Sanders. Neyland Stadium – a.k.a. “Rocky Top” – can be a truly daunting place to play, but SC is lucky that Tennessee also has profound injuries to important pieces of its team. The Gamecocks still have #10 Arkansas and #5 Clemson on their schedule, but given Tennessee’s struggling defense and one-dimensional (plus injured) offense, the odds look pretty good for Carolina to steal a win in Knoxville.
If Tennessee is going to get a win at home, Simms must play better and the Vols must also get more production out of RB Tauren Poole; the senior has ability but has been pretty pedestrian (4.0 yards per clip, just two TDs) thus far. Tennessee fans are yearning for a winner, but they probably will have to wait a bit longer.
Carolina, meanwhile, has been imperfect, but it has been good enough. Whether the Gamecocks will finish strong without Lattimore remains to be seen, but head coach Steve Spurrier and his men should expect to travel to Knoxville and grab a win in the hostile confines of Neyland Stadium.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 24, Tennessee 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41
The hapless Buffaloes head into Tempe, Arizona to take on the Sun Devils of Arizona State on Saturday.
Buffaloes v Sun Devils
When: Saturday, 6:30 PM EST
Where: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
TV: N/A
LINE: -31 (Arizona State), O/U 56.5
Colorado is coming off of yet another loss of 20 or more points. That makes three in a row now, and four games out of the last five.
Their only points a week ago were a result of a misplayed punt. They forced a safety on that play and that is the only thing that saved the Buffaloes from being shut out a week ago in their 45-2 loss. To boot that game was at home and things probably won’t get any better anytime soon.
After last week’s performance, Colorado is now 1-7 , with an 0-4 mark in conference play. Good for last in the PAC12 south unsurprisingly. They rank near the bottom in most statistical categories, which is where you would expect a 1-7 team to be.
They sit at 113th in rushing yards, 107th in points per game, then 117th in points allowed. The latter number is over 37 points per game. Not a good sign when going up against a top 50 offense.
The one semi bright note is that they can sling the ball around on occasion. They average over 225 yards through the air per contest. If Arizona State has a weakness that can be exploited in this one, it is their passing defense that ranks in the bottom half of the country. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Sun Devils meanwhile, are coming off of a tough loss in Eugene against Oregon. If not for a back breaking interception at the end of the first half, we could be looking at a top 15, one loss team here.
Sophomore quarterback Brock Osweiler had another solid day at the office, throwing for nearly 300 yards and two scores. What killed the Sun Devils though, were the two picks that he threw in crucial situations. When you have a rushing game that ranks in the bottom third of the country, you have to limit those mistakes against top flight competition.
What the Sun Devils lack on the ground, they more than make up for it in the passing department. They have a top 20 passing attack, which should be more than enough to secure a win in this one.
This week they are fortunate to face Colorado in their one break at home amidst a run of four of five road games. Osweiler should be able to exploit this horrendous Buffalo defense into a few scores.
Matt’s Prediction: Colorado 13 Arizona State 34- This one is going to get out of hand in a hurry. This Colorado team just isn’t ready for Pac 12 play, or any BCS league play for that matter. You combine that with an Arizona State team that is on the upswing and you get a game that is destined to be a blowout from the opening kickoff.
The Stanford Cardinals look to stay unbeaten as they travel into Southern California to take on the Trojans pm Saturday night.
Cardinal v Trojans
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM EST
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
TV: ABC, ABC Regional, ESPN3
LINE: +7.5 (USC), O/U 60
The Cardinals got here a little differently than usual, as Andrew Luck threw for a season low 169 yards a week ago. Although he still managed to put up two touchdowns.
Nevertheless, it was the running game that took the reins against Washington. They had three halfbacks that rushes for at least 93 yards, and all three had at least one touchdown as well. Anthony Wilkerson upped the ante a bit by adding two.
Stanford tallied a total of five touchdowns on the ground against the Huskies. That number is one quarter of their total number of rushing scores on the season, so it was a pretty marquee day for the Cardinal ground attack.
The Cardinals are a top ten team for a reason. They rank up near the top in most offensive and defensive categories. They are generally known for their passing attack, but it has been the running game that is more highly touted of late.
They average just under 220 yards a game on the ground. That number is good for 17th in the country. However, it isn’t to say that the passing game isn’t excellent. It is up in the top 25 nationally.
The other two Stanford stats that jump out at you have to be their point per game averages. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule to this point, but they have still put up almost 50 points a game. Good for second in the country. While their defense has allowed less than 15 per contest. Also in the top 5.
As for the Trojans, they are also coming off of a win. The difference is their win happened to come against the biggest rival that USC has in Notre Dame, so they will be riding high headed into this one. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
QB Matt Barkley is coming off of another top notch performance as well. He tossed for over 200 yards, while adding three touchdowns in the process to vault the Trojans to a 6-1 record. Sophomore Robert Woods seemed to be the target of choice for Barkley. He racked up twelve catches for 119 yards, including two scores.
While the Trojans have a nice record on the year, they don’t really have the stats to back up their 6-1 mark. In fact, in this match-up, they only have an advantage in one area. That is passing yards, and they only hold that edge by 2.2 yards per game.
They fall outside of the top 35 for all of the major stats outside of passing yards. Not really the recipe to take down a top ten juggernaut like Stanford.
Matt’s Prediction: Stanford 38,USC 24–The Trojans have benefited from an incredibly weak schedule thus far. They may possess the best win between the two teams in this one though with their win a week ago against the Irish. The stats on paper obviously favor the Cardinals., who I expect to win this one rather convincingly. Even on the road.
Oregon, coming off of a huge win in Colorado, are looking to do the same thing as they did a week ago back at home against the Cougars of Washington State.
Annihilate their opponent.
Cougars v Ducks
When: Saturday, 3:00 PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: N/A
LINE: -35 (Oregon), O/U 69
Washington State are coming off a game in which they were throttled by the lowly Oregon State Beavers. Granted they did lose their starting quarterback shortly after they tied the game at 14, so that probably had a little bit to do with the final score.
But there is more bad news coming their way. Jeff Tuel is not coming back for this week’s game. As everyone saw, this just isn’t the same team when he isn’t on the field.
The Cougars do not have much of a running game, and they basically solely relied on the arm of Tuel, and now that he’s out, no one is quite sure where their points are going to come from.
Remember, this was a team that boasted a top ten passing attack. Outside of that one, single, silver lining. They fall near the bottom of the NCAA in most other categories.
They rank 91st in rushing yards per game, and are giving up around 30 points per game. The latter number is good for 87th in the country but will probably drop after their meeting with the Ducks.
Even if Oregon decides to hold out their number one backfield tandem in quarterback Darren Thomas and running back LaMichael James, they will likely field a team more than capable of putting up at least 30 points on the scoreboard. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The only thing holding this one up from being a complete laugher is the fact that Washington State actually has a solid run defense. As we all know, running the ball is what this Oregon team excels at.
Even with that being said, it is going to be hard to keep this offense down for too long. As they are a pretty efficient passing team, even though they do not turn to the air all that often. Why would you when you average well over 300 yards per game on the ground?
They are also putting up over 48 points a game total, which is just ridiculous given the strength of their schedule thus far. Their season low came against LSU in their first game of the 2011 campaign, but they still managed 27 points in that one. Oh by the way, LSU boasts the 4th best run defense in the country, so it doesn’t look good for Wazzou this weekend.
Matt’s Prediction: Oregon 52, Washington State 3-Washington State didn’t really have a chance in this one if they were 100 percent healthy. Now they are without the man that makes their offense go in Tuel. I think everyone can add 2+2 here. This is going to be a blowout with or without Oregon’s Thomas or James. There is just no way around it.
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend IN
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Navy +21.5, Notre Dame -21.5
Over/Under: 62
This traditional match-up against Independent teams pits two squads against each other with wildly different offensive strategies.
The Midshipmen are built on the ground game; Navy is third in the nation in rush yards per game (just over 325 yards per contest) while sitting 117th in the FBS in passing. The Middies run an option offense that puts heavy emphasis on ball possession and moving the chains.
The Irish, meanwhile, are aerial specialists. They like getting their production through the passing game with excellent targets like WR Michael Floyd and TE Tyler Eifert. The well-oiled attack seized up somewhat last week versus Southern Cal, however, the Irish lost 31-17 to USC in a game where they looked largely uninspired. The Golden Domers need to rebound nicely to get the momentum on track – Navy looks like the perfect opponent to accomplish this end.
Navy is still more vulnerable because of starting QB Kriss Proctor’s hand injury in last week’s 38-35 loss to East Carolina. Trey Miller should start in place of Proctor this week, there will absolutely be a drop-off because Proctor is leading the team in rushing (591 yards, eight TDs) to go along with six passing majors. During this time of year when seemingly every team is battling the injury bug, the Middies will also miss LB Matt Brewer (neck stinger), CB David Wright (foot) and RB Aaron Santiago (arm). Navy doesn’t need top-line recruits to run its gameplan, but the injuries will doubtlessly test a team that does not have great depth to begin with.
Notre Dame needs to get a sustained effort from its players right from the opening whistle, because if the Irish play like they are capable of, the passing game will shred Navy’s secondary. Unlike the past couple seasons, the Irish are also getting a nice contribution from the running back position; junior Cierre Wood and senior Jonas Gray have combined for 1,100 yards and 11 TDs. The Irish “D” is coming off consecutive games where they surrendered 33 points to Air Force and 31 to USC, so they must smarten up against a pesky option attack. Notre Dame is dealing with two key injuries at the defensive end spot – starters Ethan Johnson is “Questionable” with an injured ankle and Kapron Lewis-Moore is out for the year with a knee. As the defensive line is crucial to stopping the run game, new faces must step up this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Irish signal-caller Tommy Rees hyper-extended his knee against the Trojans last week, but he was able to return to the game and should be ready to go this Saturday. Rees is in the school’s record books for going the third-longest streak of passes without an interception (135 pass attempts) so, while the streak was snapped when Rees threw a pick last week, he’s obviously been playing within himself. Notre Dame has everyone else healthy on offense to utilize, so Navy’s 83rd-ranked defensive unit will likely feel the wrath of Rees, Floyd, Wood and Co. (that sounds like a company that should be selling nappy sweaters to tourists in Maine).
Irish head coach Brian Kelly and his men should be frustrated after their lackluster showing against rival USC, so they ought to come out with an eye to steamroll the Middies. If the team uses the Southern Cal shortcomings as fuel to play with an edge this week at home, the Golden Domers should win by multiple scores against the banged-up visitors from the Naval Academy.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 12
Over/Under Prediction: 50
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn AL
Saturday, October 29, 7:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Ole Miss +400, Auburn -500
Spread: Ole Miss +13, Auburn -13
Over/Under: 51
It says a lot about the SEC when the Auburn Tigers can have three losses – and two conference losses – and still be ranked in the Top 25. The Tigers have lost to some good teams, so Ole Miss probably shouldn’t take much solace from the “Ls” on Auburn’s slate.
The Ole Miss Rebels are just not a very good football team. Granted, they gave Arkansas a scare last weekend (the Razorbacks held on, 29-24) but that’s the first time the Rebs have looked even remotely impressive against a good team. The Rebels QB position, which has been flip-flopping between juniors Randall Mackey and Zack Stoudt, seems to finally have Mackey entrenched as the starter. Mackey had a strong performance against the Hogs last week, going for 219 yards and two TDs in a losing cause. The Rebels will need Mackey to re-create a lot more magic if they are to have any chance this Saturday night in Auburn.
The Tigers are coming off an embarrassing 45-10 loss to the LSU Tigers, but LSU has been beating most everyone in that style in 2011. Auburn is a pretty good team once you make peace with the fact it certainly isn’t the squad that won the National Championship with wunderkind QB Cam Newton a year ago. This Auburn team rotates around its running game. Starter Michael Dyer has a very solid 812 yards and eight TDs on the season, he should crack 1,000 yards before all is said and done. Back-up Onterio McCalebb provides some speed and quickness off the bench, with 387 yards and a healthy 5.6 yards per carry average.
Auburn leans on its running game even more lately because of two realities: firstly, stud WR Emory Blake has been out for the past several weeks with a nagging foot injury, he is still listed as “Questionable” for this weekend. Second, Tigers head coach Gene Chizik recently benched starting QB Barrett Trotter in favor of more scrambling-minded Clint Moseley. This certainly makes the Tigers more one-dimensional and while that can burn you against an LSU or Alabama, Ole Miss is probably fledgling enough that it won’t matter.
Starting DE Ladarius Owens is also on the shelf for Auburn, but that is no excuse for the defense’s poor play. The unit gave up 45 points last week and only rank 75th in the nation in total defense – out of character for the Auburn football identity. It is entirely possible, however, that the Rebels are the ointment that get the Tigers’ defense back on track. If the “D” can inhibit Mackey from making plays with his athleticism, they stand a very good chance of beating Ole Miss soundly. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It seems like Ole Miss is in perennial rebuild mode. It has surely been a struggle for the pigskin-mad Mississippians and the fix likely won’t come this week in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Aside from recent flashes of life out of Mackey, the Ole Miss offense has been miserable (the Rebs rank 107th in both passing and rushing) and the defense, while stout at times, will probably yield a lot of rushing yardage to Dyer, McCalebb and Moseley. It will be a great start for Ole Miss just to get a similar effort this week that it did in the Arkansas game, and to just see what happens from there.
For Auburn’s part, it must ensure that it doesn’t get caught looking past the Rebels. It is still a conference game with potentially broad implications. And in all honesty, that is probably the only scenario where the Tigers lose to the visiting Rebels this Saturday night.
Score Prediction: Auburn 35, Ole Miss 13
Over/Under Prediction: 48
