Category: MLB

Sunday Night Baseball Betting – Cardinals vs Phillies Preview & Pick

Date: Sunday, September 18, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: ESPN
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF

St. Louis Cardinals (81-68 through September 15)
Chris Carpenter (9-9, 3.80)

They’ve flown under the radar of late but the St. Louis Cardinals still have potential to sneak into the National League playoffs through the back door. They’re 5.5 games behind Milwaukee for the NL Central lead and 4.5 games back of Atlanta for the NL Wild Card through Thursday night. The key was going 5-1 during a six-game stretch against both of those teams last week.

On Sunday Night Baseball, they’ll try and improve on their 40-34 road record with a tough trip to the City of Brotherly Love. Chris Carpenter handled the Phillies the last time he faced them, striking out seven over seven innings of one-run ball to get the win. He has a 4.66 lifetime ERA against the Phils but is 6-2 over 10 starts. He’ll hope to right the ship after a four-start stretch this season in which he allowed four-plus runs three times.

Philadelphia Phillies (97-51 through September 15)
Cole Hamels (14-8, 2.71)

The Phils clinched a playoff berth earlier this week and their magic number for the NL East sat at one game through Thursday, so they’ll probably have the division locked up by the time Sunday night’s game arrives.

Cole Hamels has been outstanding this season but his last few starts after a brief DL stint show a few concerning trends. A key to Hamels’ success in 2011 had been curbing his always-high homer rate but he’s allowed five long balls over his last three starts.

Hamels has a 3.00 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis. Switch-hitting Lance Berkman gives him the most trouble, batting .333 over 18 career at-bats. Despite his homer problems, it’s interesting that Hamels has only allowed two taters to current Cardinal regulars: one to Albert Pujols and one to Ryan Theriot.

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The pick:

I expect Pujols to play a major role on Sunday night. Even though he’s just a .150 hitter versus Hamels in his career, that stat is due to change based on each player’s recent trends. Pujols is batting .388 with 13 RBI in 13 games this month whereas Hamels is slumping. A power righty bat like Albert’s in theory should be a threat to Hamels’ gopher-ball ways.

Also considering that the Phillies may not keep Hamels in the game long with the division already clinched, and may throw some long relievers to the wolves, I believe the Cards can pull the road upset.

Sunday Night Baseball prediction: Cardinals 5, Phillies 3

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MLB Betting – Tigers vs Athletics Preview & Pick

Date: Saturday, September 17, 2011
Venue: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Broadcast: FOX
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics Betting Lines from Bodog.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF

Detroit Tigers (87-63 through September 15)
Rick Porcello (14-8, 4.83)

The Detroit Tigers have officially graduated from World Series sleeper to World Series contender. A 12-game winning streak will do that. The American League Central is theirs; a 13.5-game lead through Thursday means that the best any team can do is tie them.

But the dominant second half doesn’t necessarily mean Detroit has nothing to fix heading into the playoffs. For one, the Tigers could breathe a lot easier if they got some solid starting pitching from someone other than Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.

Saturday starter Rick Porcello continues to tease with his talent. Still just 22 years old, he’s shown great control this year, walking 40 batters in 162 innings. But Porcello has also been hittable, allowing a .291 opponents’ average.

Porcello is 6-2 in 11 starts since the All-Star break – but with a 4.91 ERA. His success is more the product of run support than anything else. If he wants to help Detroit in the playoffs, he has to curb his homer rate in particular.

Oakland Athletics (68-82 through September 15)
Gio Gonzalez (13-12, 3.41)

The Oakland A’s are just playing out the string, guaranteed another sub-.500 finish after they were hyped as an AL Wildcard sleeper entering the 2011 season.

One of their few bright spots has been Gio Gonzalez, who starts Saturday. However, even he has been a source of stress lately. The All-Star’s overall numbers are strong, fitting the profile of a power pitcher with a high strikeout and walk rate, but he’s struggled mightily in the second half. He had a 2.47 ERA at the break and he sits at 5.00 since.

The pick:

Not only is Gonzalez regularly getting lit up lately, he’s never succeeded against the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 6.87 ERA in four starts against them. In those outings, he’s lasted a combined 18.1 innings and allowed six homers.

A struggling pitcher versus a hot offense that has historically demolished him? Seems like an easy choice to me. Porcello ain’t perfect but the Athletics’ popgun attack isn’t built to hurt him.

Tigers vs Athletics prediction: Tigers 6, Athletics 2

Baseball Power Rankings:

There’s a new sheriff in town atop the MLB power rankings and his name is Justin Verlander.

(Previous rankings in brackets)

1. (3) Detroit Tigers (87-63): Justin Verlander will go for win No. 24 this weekend. Perhaps most impressive is his 13-2 road mark. With him leading the way, not to mention the offensive depth led by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, you could make a case that Detroit is now the American League Pennant frontrunner.

2. (1) Philadelphia Phillies (97-51): Is there a chance that clinching so early will make the Phillies go soft come playoff time? Nah. I just remembered that Roy Halladay pitches for them. No way Doc lets his teammates rest on their laurels.

3. (2) New York Yankees (90-58): They still have as strong a chance as any team to win it all because their bats are the equivalent of the Phillies’ arms. When will the Curtis Granderson show stop?

4. (11) Tampa Bay Rays (83-66): They continue to make the Boston Red Sox sweat bullets. The Rays have officially clawed their way back into the stretch run. Special props are due for rookie starter Jeremy Hellickson and his nerves of steel.

5. (7) Texas Rangers (86-64): The Rangers keep winning but their rotation looks far less stable than it was entering the 2010 playoffs. What was a strength could be a liability this time.

6. (4) Arizona Diamondbacks (87-63): If Ian Kennedy wins his next start, he may unofficially become the most under-the-radar 20-game winner in major-league history.

7. (8) St. Louis Cardinals (81-68): Crucial series wins over the Brewers and Braves have vaulted them back into the playoff run. But can this team stay healthy long enough to make any noise come October? I doubt it.

8. (9) Los Angeles Angels (82-67): Their season ends with a three-game set at home to Texas. If Jered Weaver and Dan Haren start during that series, are the Halos the favorite to win the AL West?

9. (5) Milwaukee Brewers (87-63): The Brewers still look like the Phillies’ toughest NL challenger but their recent stumbles have let St. Louis off the mat. The Brewers also aren’t guaranteed home field in the NLDS anymore, which is a major concern given their 52-23 home record.

10. (12) San Francisco Giants (80-70): The five-game winning streak is nice but it’s probably too late. Arizona only needs to play .500 ball to guarantee itself the NL West crown.

11. (10) Atlanta Braves (86-64): They’re no longer a postseason lock, especially with Tommy Hanson still out with an injured shoulder. Even if they reach the big dance without him, can they win a series without him?

12. (6) Boston Red Sox (86-63): Who knew they’d ever fall this far? The truth is that Boston looks like the weakest AL contender at the moment. The pitching staff is too banged up.

13. (16) Toronto Blue Jays (75-74): Note the massive dropoff between the 12^th and 13^th-ranked teams in the rankings. Only 12 teams in baseball remain in hunt for eight playoff berths. The Jays keep doing their thing, hovering around .500 and giving their fans hope for a better 2012.

14. (22) Cincinnati Reds (74-76): There’s still enough offensive talent on this team that the Reds could contend next season if they bolster their pitching.

15. (26) Washington Nationals (71-79): Five straight wins for the Nats. They’re babying Stephen Strasburg upon his return and with good reason. With him and Jordan Zimmermann as a one-two pitching punch next season, could Washington post a winning record?

16. (20) Kansas City Royals (65-86): The Royals have a five-game winning streak of their own. But should would we put much stock in a team that only seems to play well when the games don’t matter anymore?

17. (21) Pittsburgh Pirates (68-82): It will be interesting to see if next year’s Pirates build on their strong first half or continue with their ugly second-half play from this season.

18. (18) Oakland Athletics (68-82): Josh Willingham’s 26 homers and 91 RBI are respectable given his team and park. Couldn’t a team like Atlanta have used his pop in a trade-deadline deal?

19. (28) Seattle Mariners (62-87): You can’t see it in the standings but the Mariners’ commitment to playing their youngsters could pay dividends next season.

20. (27) Baltimore Orioles (60-88): They’ve quietly been a thorny opponent for most AL teams over the last month. To have any hope for 2012, though, their pitching must improve. Among qualifiers, Jeremy Guthrie leads the team with a 4.22 ERA.

21. (17) Cleveland Indians (72-75)
22. (13) Los Angeles Dodgers (73-76)
23. (23) Colorado Rockies (70-79)
24. (25) Houston Astro (51-98)
25. (15) Chicago White Sox (73-76)
26. (19) Chicago Cubs (65-85)
27. (14) New York Mets (71-79)
28. (24) Florida Marlins (67-83)
29. (30) San Diego Padres (63-87)
30. (29) Minnesota Twins (59-89)

MLB Betting – Brewers vs Reds Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, September 16, 2011
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: FSWI, FSOH
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF

Milwaukee Brewers (87-63 through September 14)
Randy Wolf (12-9, 3.44)

Though the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t fully going away, the Milwaukee Brewers remain firmly in control of the National League Central. Still, they have a few minor demons to exorcise. For one, they’d lost six of eight through Wednesday’s action. Secondly, they’d like to prove they can win on the road before the playoffs arrive. The Brew Crew’s 52-23 home record has carried them; their 35-40 away mark leaves plenty to be desired.

Randy Wolf will try to reverse the losing road trend at Cincinnati on Friday night. For all the fanfare Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum get, Wolf has been the rotation’s unsung hero this season. He’s provided seven quality starts in his last 10 tries.

Wolf has fared well against the Reds in his career. Over 22 starts, he’s 10-4 with a 3.40 ERA and 136 strikeouts over 140.1 innings.

Cincinnati Reds (73-76 through September 14)
Bronson Arroyo (8-11, 5.28)

2011 is officially a lost season for the Reds, last year’s NL Central champs. Their obituary will read: “couldn’t pitch.” Cincy is the majors’ seventh highest-scoring team and is fifth in homers but is 23^rd in ERA.

Guys who usually got it done – like Bronson Arroyo – haven’t this season. In Arroyo’s case, it feels like 2011 was a case of an overrated guy finally getting what many people thought was coming to him for years. Arroyo has been a good innings eater but he isn’t overpowering and he’s so darned hittable, so it’s not a huge surprise that he’s been rocked this year.

His control is sharp as ever; he has just 40 walks in 175.2 innings. But Arroyo has allowed an MLB-worst 40 homers on the year – seven more than any other pitcher. Opponents are betting .293 off him.

The pick:

Arroyo is 11-7 against the Brewers all-time and he’s actually 2-0 against them with a 2.70 ERA this year. However, both those starts came in April, when he wasn’t pitching nearly as poorly. Now that the gopher balls are out of control, I think the Brewers should smash Arroyo on Friday. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks all have multiple homers off Arroyo in their career and might add to their totals.

Brewers vs Reds prediction: Brewers 6, Reds 4