MLB Betting – Tigers vs Athletics Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, September 17, 2011
Venue: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Broadcast: FOX
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics Betting Lines from Bodog.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
Detroit Tigers (87-63 through September 15)
Rick Porcello (14-8, 4.83)
The Detroit Tigers have officially graduated from World Series sleeper to World Series contender. A 12-game winning streak will do that. The American League Central is theirs; a 13.5-game lead through Thursday means that the best any team can do is tie them.
But the dominant second half doesn’t necessarily mean Detroit has nothing to fix heading into the playoffs. For one, the Tigers could breathe a lot easier if they got some solid starting pitching from someone other than Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.
Saturday starter Rick Porcello continues to tease with his talent. Still just 22 years old, he’s shown great control this year, walking 40 batters in 162 innings. But Porcello has also been hittable, allowing a .291 opponents’ average.
Porcello is 6-2 in 11 starts since the All-Star break – but with a 4.91 ERA. His success is more the product of run support than anything else. If he wants to help Detroit in the playoffs, he has to curb his homer rate in particular.
Oakland Athletics (68-82 through September 15)
Gio Gonzalez (13-12, 3.41)
The Oakland A’s are just playing out the string, guaranteed another sub-.500 finish after they were hyped as an AL Wildcard sleeper entering the 2011 season.
One of their few bright spots has been Gio Gonzalez, who starts Saturday. However, even he has been a source of stress lately. The All-Star’s overall numbers are strong, fitting the profile of a power pitcher with a high strikeout and walk rate, but he’s struggled mightily in the second half. He had a 2.47 ERA at the break and he sits at 5.00 since.
The pick:
Not only is Gonzalez regularly getting lit up lately, he’s never succeeded against the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 6.87 ERA in four starts against them. In those outings, he’s lasted a combined 18.1 innings and allowed six homers.
A struggling pitcher versus a hot offense that has historically demolished him? Seems like an easy choice to me. Porcello ain’t perfect but the Athletics’ popgun attack isn’t built to hurt him.
Tigers vs Athletics prediction: Tigers 6, Athletics 2
