Sunday Night Baseball Betting – Cardinals vs Phillies Preview & Pick
Date: Sunday, September 18, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: ESPN
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
St. Louis Cardinals (81-68 through September 15)
Chris Carpenter (9-9, 3.80)
They’ve flown under the radar of late but the St. Louis Cardinals still have potential to sneak into the National League playoffs through the back door. They’re 5.5 games behind Milwaukee for the NL Central lead and 4.5 games back of Atlanta for the NL Wild Card through Thursday night. The key was going 5-1 during a six-game stretch against both of those teams last week.
On Sunday Night Baseball, they’ll try and improve on their 40-34 road record with a tough trip to the City of Brotherly Love. Chris Carpenter handled the Phillies the last time he faced them, striking out seven over seven innings of one-run ball to get the win. He has a 4.66 lifetime ERA against the Phils but is 6-2 over 10 starts. He’ll hope to right the ship after a four-start stretch this season in which he allowed four-plus runs three times.
Philadelphia Phillies (97-51 through September 15)
Cole Hamels (14-8, 2.71)
The Phils clinched a playoff berth earlier this week and their magic number for the NL East sat at one game through Thursday, so they’ll probably have the division locked up by the time Sunday night’s game arrives.
Cole Hamels has been outstanding this season but his last few starts after a brief DL stint show a few concerning trends. A key to Hamels’ success in 2011 had been curbing his always-high homer rate but he’s allowed five long balls over his last three starts.
Hamels has a 3.00 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis. Switch-hitting Lance Berkman gives him the most trouble, batting .333 over 18 career at-bats. Despite his homer problems, it’s interesting that Hamels has only allowed two taters to current Cardinal regulars: one to Albert Pujols and one to Ryan Theriot.
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The pick:
I expect Pujols to play a major role on Sunday night. Even though he’s just a .150 hitter versus Hamels in his career, that stat is due to change based on each player’s recent trends. Pujols is batting .388 with 13 RBI in 13 games this month whereas Hamels is slumping. A power righty bat like Albert’s in theory should be a threat to Hamels’ gopher-ball ways.
Also considering that the Phillies may not keep Hamels in the game long with the division already clinched, and may throw some long relievers to the wolves, I believe the Cards can pull the road upset.
Sunday Night Baseball prediction: Cardinals 5, Phillies 3
