Category: Handicapping

Ready To Bet On NFL Football In 2010?

Looking for some great tips to consider before 2010 NFL betting? We’ve got your back. Don’t you hate when you get that perfect betting tip or system at the end of the football season? You’re left thinking, “Why didn’t I know this before I lost money all year?” Time to change that.

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Just as the season is about to start, here are seven simple steps to follow for success. Some of them may be obvious, others not so much. But they can all help you. Enjoy!

1. Team statistics mean everything

You can usually tell a lot about a matchup simply by looking at each team’s statistical strengths and weaknesses. For example, while no one expected a 59-0 rout, most savvy bettors saw New England’s destruction of Tennessee coming last year. The reason: the Titans ranked brutally low against the pass and struggled to rush the passer whereas the Patriots ranked near the top of the league in passing offense. It was easy to see that Tom Brady would pick the Titans apart.

Team ranks sometimes matter more than an individual star’s presence. Nnamdi Asomugha is an elite cornerback and he helps make the Oakland Raiders’ pass defense respectable but he alone won’t ensure that Oakland will “shut down” an opponent and win. If Oakland can’t stop the run, it will still allow plenty of points.

2. Keep track of injuries

While you can sometimes get better value hammering lines early in the week, I recommend taking slightly less value but upping your odds closer to game time with an educated guess. Follow injury reports and be aware of any high-impact absences or returns to the lineup.

3. Watch the games

It’s a simple but effective way to know more about whom you’re betting on. Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback but you’ll know from watching him that he holds onto the ball for way too long. When he faces an aggressive pass rush, you may expect him to take a few extra hits and turn over the ball.

Watching games can reveal things not found on a stat sheet. On paper, Brett Favre took zero sacks against New Orleans in the NFC Championship game last year. If you watched it live, you’ll know that the Saints beat the tar out of him by hitting him at the end of every play, even if he still got his throws off. Suddenly, the secret to defeating Favre was revealed: beat him up.

4. Weather matters, especially late in the season

Rain and mud can affect teams’ run-to-pass ratios but it’s cold weather and snow that really give bettors a leg up. If a Florida team travels to Buffalo or Green Bay in December, pounce. Warm-weather teams often struggle to adjust in tough conditions.

A perfect example is a famous 1985 matchup between the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers. In a vicious snow storm, the Pack gained 463 yards. The Bucs gained 69. Not a coincidence.

5. Losers aren’t always losers

Just because a team’s win-loss record is terrible doesn’t mean it will lose you money every week. Some bad teams consistently lose close games and thus beat the spread more often than people expect. The most famous example in 2009 was Kansas City; the Chiefs went 2-14 but lost eight games by a touchdown or less.

6. Keep track of betting-specific statistics

This rule goes hand-in-hand with No. 5. If you bet against the spread every week, doesn’t a team’s against the spread record matter more than its win-loss record? The Cleveland Browns were 10-6 ATS last year. If you ignored their  5-11 straight-up record and followed the betting trends, they would’ve won you money.

Betting statistics go beyond the spread; don’t forget about over/under records.

7. Look for value early in the season

It’s easier to handicap a game in Week 15, when you have a boatload of season rankings and accurate current team statistics to help with your forecast. But what about Week 1, when we don’t truly know how much a team has improved over the offseason?

Take the Denver Broncos. Everyone expected them to be a disaster in 2009 yet they opened the season 6-0. Opponents underestimated them and so did bettors. It’s no sure thing, but it can be profitable to play a hunch on your favorite surprise team early in the season.

For example, most books favor the Chicago Bears by seven over the Detroit Lions in Week 1 this year. But what if Chicago underestimates rookie Jahvid Best’s breakaway speed or Ndamukong Suh’s ability to rush Jay Cutler? Sometimes, early-season unpredictability gives you value.

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