Author: Matt Martz

KSU vs Texas NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

A surging Kansas State Wildcats will look to upend their hosts on Saturday, as they arrive in Austin to face a Texas Longhorns side that has dropped two straight.

Kansas State (2-1) vs. Texas (1-2)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 2013
Time: 8 p.m. EST
Venue: Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium
City: Austin
O/U Odds: 58
Spread: Texas -5 1/2 

Things are starting to appear bleak in Austin as the Longhorns allowed Ole Miss to score 30 unanswered points, to overcome a half-time deficit for a 44-23 romp last Saturday.

Kansas State, meanwhile, cruised to 37-7 victory over UMass Saturday night and continue to improve every week after their season-opening loss to North Dakota State.

That’s mainly due to an increasingly explosive offense that received a 118-yard performance from senior running back John Hubert in its win over Massachusetts. The Wildcats posted 456 total yards of offense against UMass, 329 coming on the ground.

Junior quarterback Jake Waters also pitched in, finishing 5-of-10 for 115 yards and two touchdowns.

On the defensive side, K-State surrendered 309 total yards, 186 passing and 123 rushing, and held UMass to 7-of-17 third down conversions.

That will come in handy against t talented Texas offense that has a ton of returnes and is loaded with talent. Its my guess that the team will eventually snap out of its funk, and maybe it will be this weekend.  [soliloquy id=”82219″]

However, a thin defense is another concern. The one that gave up nearly 700 total yards to BYU and 449 total yards to Ole Miss, and ranks No. 53, surrendering 33.3 PPG.

The Wildcats defense ranks No. 39 at 19.3 PPG.

K-State has won five in a row against Texas, including a 42-24 victory in December that clinched the conference title. Nevertheless, the Horns are 13-2 in Big 12 openers under coach Mack Brown, with the two losses coming to Kansas State on the road  in 1998 and at home in 2007.

Matt’s Prediction

This is my upset pick of the week.

The line for this matchup opened at -7 for Texas and that’s a bit of a shocker, especially as it tightened to -5 1/2.

K-State appears to be getting better every week, particularly at the skill positions. In the meantime, the Longhorns will be without two offensive starters – receiver Daje Johnson and tight end Greg Daniels, as well as a long list of key players who are questionable for Saturday.

The only plus the Longhorns will have here is the home crowd advantage, but I don’t see that being enough to carry them to victory in this one.

Kansas State  41, Texas 38

North Texas vs Georgia NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

After losing a close one in Week 1 at Clemson, quarterback Aaron Murray took care of business by leading No. 9 Georgia to a big win in Week 2 to pull the Bulldogs even on the year.

The senior turned in one of his best performances of his career throwing from for 309 yards and four touchdowns as Georgia defeated the Gamecocks, 41-30.

Murray and Co. will continue their two-game home stand this weekend against the North Texas Mean Green who improved to 2-1 after a come-from-behind victory over Ball State 34-27 on Saturday.

North Texas (2-1) vs. No. 9 Georgia (1-1)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 2013
Time: 12:21 p.m. EST
Venue:   Sanford Stadium
City: Athens
O/U Odds: 67
Spread: Georgia -32 1/2

Mean Green quarterback Derek Thompson threw for 274 yards and rushed 72 yards to lead North Texas, after the team fell behind 20-3 in the first quarter.

Defensively, the Mean Green regained its composure holding Ball State to just seven points for the remainder of the game.

In the meantime, the Gamecocks and Bulldogs traded touchdowns in the two minutes of Saturday’s game with Todd Gurley powering in from the two-yard line and South Carolina evening the score again on Conner Shaw’s 30-yard TD pass with just 13 seconds remaining.

Georgia’s struggling defense came up with a big stop late in the game preventing the Gamecocks from powering into the end zone on fourth down.

The teams combined for 990 yards , not good for a team like Georgia’s, which cannot  afford another defeat this season if it wants to remain a serious contender for a national title. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Bulldogs did make it for the defense’s lapses with a dazzling offensive display though, with Murray and Gurley putting on a clinic.

Gurley finished the day rushing for 136 yards on 30 carries and scoring two touchdowns, while Murray completed 17-of-23 passes for 309 yards and a whopping four touchdowns including the go-ahead score on an 8-yard toss to Gurley late in the third.

Receiver Justin Scott Wesley led the receiving corps, hauling in three passes from 116 yards, including an 85-yarder in the fourth to ice the game.

Matt’s Prediction

As far as I am concerned this one is not as lopsided as the odds makers have projected.

While the Georgia offense has proven it can put up points, the defense has had too many lapses to make me fill confident that they can maintain a nearly five-touchdown spread for an entire game, not to mention that the Mean Green have proven they can score as well, averaging nearly 32 PPG.

Georgia 45, North Texas 31

Florida A&M vs Ohio State NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes will complete their non-conference portion of their 2013 campaign with a home game against FCS cupcake, Florida A&M.

Florida A&M (1-2) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (3-0)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 2013
Time: 12 p.m. EST
Venue:  Ohio Stadium,
City: Columbus
O/U Odds: 51
Spread: N/A

Ohio State will hope to have quarterback Braxton Miller back under center after he missed Saturday’s win at the Cal Golden Bears with a knee injury.

Meanwhile, A&M were edged out by a visiting Samford that used a big first quarter to beat the Rattlers 27-20, their last time out.

A&M (1-2) could only muster 219 yards of total offense, and if it weren’t for two interception returns for touchdowns, the Rattlers may have been shut out completely.

Patrick Aiken had a 93-yard return for a score in the second quarter for Florida A&M and Devonte Johnson then scored on a 28-yard interception return in the third.

Defensively, the Rattlers gave up 341 yards, including 199 on the ground.

Meanwhile, fifth-year senior quarterback Kenny Guiton got his first start as a Buckeye in place of injured  Miller — and made it count.

It took just two plays for him to notch his name in the Ohio State record book, throwing three touchdown passes in the first six minutes of the game, including a school-record 90-yarder to Devin Smith — the longest from scrimmage in school history.

Guiton finished completing 21-of-32 passes for 276 yards and added 92 yards rushing to lead the Buckeyes to their  15th straight victory — the longest winning streak in major college football — 52-34 over California on Saturday night.

On defense, the Buckeyes looked shaky against Cals’s no-huddle offense, surrendering up 503 yards, which included nearly 375 through the air. They also allowed the Golden Bears to convert two of three fourth down conversions and forced two turnovers. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

After a an opening quarter that produced 38 points, three turnovers and 445 yards of offense between the two teams, the Ohio State defenders settled down and was able to control Cal’s offense, allowing just 14 points for the entire second half.

Matt’s Prediction

On paper, this one just doesn’t seem to pop out as being anywhere close when the final whistle blows

The only hope that the Rattlers had was that Miller would be miss this game, but it appears that won’t make a difference in this one, after Guiton’s performance at Cal.

I expect Ohio State to grab an easy win here, covering the spread and the over.

Ohio State 60, Florida A&M 6