Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.
The Saints (2-1) are the highest scoring team in the league and while the Jaguars (1-2) rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game they do have a solid defense. NFL lines have the Saints as 6.5-point away favorites with a total of 44.5
Does it need to be said that the Colts really miss Peyton Manning? No didn’t think so, but still without the 4-time MVP Indy ranks rank 28th in points (15.3 per game), 29th in total offense (254.0 yards) and 27th in passing yards per game (164.0 yards).
Arkansas (3-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week to an Alabama team that has one of the best defenses in the nation and this Saturday in a non conference match up they must shift gears to face a Texas A&M (2-1) team that ranks 25th in the nation in scoring and has the nation’s 19th ranked passing offense.
This game features one of the best duel-threat QB’s in the county in Baylor’s (3-0) Robert Griffin facing a Kansas State (3-0) defense that ranks 6th in the nation. NCAAF lines have the visiting Bears as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 63.5.
The Sooners (3-0) won last week, but their D did not look great, which is why they dropped to #2 in the AP poll after being in the top spot since the pre-season. They have the chance to move to 4-0 on the season and while Ball State (3-1) is not a football powerhouse they have won 3 of their first 4 games.
Last season in Texas’ (3-0) disastrous 7-loss season head coach Mack Brown said that the home loss to Iowa State was the “lowest point” of the season and they can get some revenge against a Cyclones (3-0) team that has won 2 straight games against teams from BCS conferences.
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Atlanta +110 / Tampa Bay -130
Spread (ATS): Tampa Bay -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
The Bucs have not had much success against the Falcons in the last few years, losers of 5 straight against Atlanta, but they have a ton of confidence after last week’s comeback win. However, the Falcons also had a good comeback against a better team and they are also the defending NFC South champion. NFL lines has Tampa Bay as slight 1.5-point favorites in this game with a total of 45.5 points.
Both teams came back to get their first win if the season last week with the Bucs beating the Minnesota Vikings 24-20 and the Falcons beating the Philadelphia Eagles 35-31.
Tampa and Atlanta both have 1-1 ATS records so far on the season and each also have an Over/Under record of 2-0.
Tampa was totally dominated in the first half against the Vikings being out-gained 284 yards to 62 yards and they must get off to a better start and this is especially the case since the Falcons have such a dynamic offense. Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman came alive in the 2nd half and overall passed for 243 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick. The Bucs have a decent WR corps and at least they will be up against an Atlanta pass defense that gave up 314 passing yards to Philly last week.
One key player in this game is the Bucs’ RB LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 71 yards and 2 key 2nd half TD in the win over the Vikings and for the game averaged a solid 5.5 yards per carry. The Falcons’ defense gave up 133 rushing yards last week, but if they can contain the Tampa rushing offense they will win this game since Freeman will, likely, not carry the Bucs with his arm. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Yeah, the Falcons have had their issues on defense, but their offense is solid and the Bucs keep them from lighting up the scoreboard? Tough call. Matt Ryan has WR’s Roddy White, Julio Jones, and TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Michael Turner, who rushed for 114 yards in the comeback win over the Eagles.
The Bucs rank 19th defending the pass and 31st defending the run and stopping Turner may be more important in this NFC South match up. Why? Well, Ryan has 5 TD and 8 TD in his 6 games against Tampa Bay, but the Falcons have won 5 of those games.
Betting Trends
Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games and in their last 6 road games they have an Over record of 5-0-1.
Tampa Bay has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win and in their last 5 home games they have an Over record of 4-0-1.
Jason’s Pick: In an interesting betting trend the road team has covered the spread in 5 straight games between these 2 conference rivals and that trend will continue. The Falcons have given up 9 sacks so far this season, but the Bucs will have trouble getting to him this Sunday and they will also not keep Atlanta from lighting up the scoreboard.
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: Houston +17 / New Orleans -200
Spread (ATS): New Orleans -4
Over/Under: 53
Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints Preview
The Texans (2-0) are looking for their first ever 3-0 start in their short history, but getting there will not be easy against a Saints’ offense that ranks 5th in the league. The Texans have the league’s top-ranked defense under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but they played the Colts without Peyton Manning in their 1st game and the Dolphins last week.NFL Llines have the Saints as 4-point home favorites with a total of 53.
The Saints looked solid on both sides of the ball in getting their first win last week and they have dominated opponents in winning 5 of their last 6 games at home.
The Saints beat the Chicago Bears 30-13 and the Texans beat the Dolphins 23-13.
Both teams are 1-1 ATS and the Texans have an Over/Under record of 0-2 and the Saints have an Over/Under record of 1-1.
Houston’s Matt Schaub has played well this season and a Saints’ pass defense that ranks 18th in the league must pressure him and keep him from hooking up with star WR Andre Johnson, who has 14 catches for 188 yards and 2 TD this season.
The Saints have been solid against the run this season, as they rank 18th in the league in run defense. Even with last season’s leading rusher Adrian Foster unlikely to play backup Ben Tate has rushed for over 100 yards in the first 2 games. The Saints were tore up by Tate in a preseason loss and if he can run the ball well it will not only quite the hostile New Orleans crowd, but help keep Drew Brees and the great offense of the Saints off the field. Last week the Saints only allowed the Bears to rush for only 60 yards. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
WR Marques Colston is Brees’ main target, but he is out for this game, but the Saints still have many receiving options and last week Brees passed for 270 yards with 3 TD and no picks. The Houston pass defense is the top-ranked unit in the league, but they have not really faced a great passing attack yet this season.
New Orleans rushed for 118 yards last week and Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles are up against a Houston run defense, which gave up 153 rushing yards last week. Mario Williams, Brain Cushing, and rookie DE J.J. Watt not only have to keep the Saints from piling up the rushing yards, but they must pressure Brees in the backfield, as if they do not he may torch the Houston secondary.
Betting Trends
The Texas are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games as an underdog and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Jason’s Pick: The Texans have gotten off to a great start, but facing the Saints they will find out thy are not yet an elite team. Brees will have a big game and the New Orleans’ defense will keep Schaub from doing the same. Take the Saints to win this game and cover the 4-point spread and while Schaub won’t have a huge game he will still lead the Texans to a few scores so the total will go Over.
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: JAX +165 / Carolina -190
Spread (ATS): Carolina -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers Preview
Cam Newton has gotten off to a fast start to the season becoming the first QB ever to throw for 400 yards games in his first couple starts, but the Panthers are still 0-2 because of defensive issues. The Jaguars are 1-1, but because of inconsistent QB play rookie Blaine Gabbert will get the first start of his young career. NFL lines have the Panthers as 3.5-point home favorites in this game with a total of 42.5.
In their last games the Panthers lost to the Green Bay Packers 30-23 and the Jaguars lost badly to the Jets 32-3.
Both of these teams joined the NFL in 1995 and in 5 all time meetings the Jaguars have won 4 times.
On the season both teams are 1-1 ATS and the Jags have an Over/Under record of 0-2 and the Panthers have an Over/Under record of 2-0.
Newton has over 850 yards passing in his first 2 games with WR’s Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell combining for 453 receiving yards with 3 TD’s. The Jags’ pass defense ranks 14th in the league and they have to pressure Newton up front and keep Smith and Lafell from making the big play down the field since each is averaging over 14 yards per reception.
Newton has not gotten much help from RB DeAngelo Williams, who has only rushed for a grand total of 43 yards averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Newton is also the leading rusher for the Panthers and it has been shown that he cannot do it all. It is also important that Newton cuts down on his INT’s, as that killed him last week when the Packers picked him off 3 times.
With rookie QB Gabbert under center the Jags will look to pound the ball on the ground and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (185 yards 1 TD 4.4 yards per carry), who will be counted on to have a good game.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Panthers defense has not played well this season ranking 26th defending the pass and 19th defending the run. Containing Jones-Drew is their biggest issue in this game and their front line D has to pressure Gabbert and make him look like the rookie that he is.
While all the focus has been on the rookie QB’s starting in this game the outcome may come down to which team plays better defense.
Betting Trends
The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and has an Over record of 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
The Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win, and has an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Jason’s Pick: Newton has looked great in his first 2 games, but I still think Gabbert will be a better NFL QB. While both QB’s will play well the key will be Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville defense, as the Jags will win this game and cover the spread. Take the Under as well, as this will not be a high scoring game.
Last season Mizzou (2-1) made a furious comeback to beat Oklahoma (3-0) at home and now in Norman the Sooners look to get some revenge, as the top-ranked team in the nation. Oklahoma is a big 21-point home favorite in this game with a total of 56.5.
Miami is one of the speediest teams in the nation and they are coming off a big upset win, which really helps their BCS chances. Kansas State is 2-0, but they have played a couple of cream puffs and looked less than impressive beating one of them in a 10-7 home win vs. Eastern Kentucky.
The Cowboys (3-0) have beaten the Aggies (2-0) 3 straight times, but A&M is favored in this game that may be a barnburner with each team ranking in the top 20 in points scored per game. Texas A&M is a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 70, yes 70!
Baylor (2-0) is looking for their first 3-0 start in 6 years and they have a Heisman hopeful under center facing a Rice team that does not have a dynamic offense, but is coming off a big upset over a Big 12 team in their last game. NCAAF lines have Baylor as a big 20.5-point home favorite in this game with a total of 67.
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Texans -155 / Dolphins +135
Spread (ATS): Texans -3
Over/Under: 48
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Preview
Is this the season the Texans finally unseat the Colts atop the AFC South? They got off to a good start by crushing the Manning-less Colts in their first game and while the Dolphins lost their first outing QB Chad Henne had a good game under center. NFL lines have the visiting Texans as 3-point favorites in this AFC match up with a total of 48.
In their last games the Texans killed the Indianapolis Colts 34-7 and the Dolphins lost to the New England Patriots 38-24.
I guess there is no place like home does not apply to the Dolphins, who have lost 5 straight games and 10 of their last 11 games in Miami. On top of that the Texans have beaten the Dolphins in all 5 games they have faced each other.
Houston has a lot of things going for them in the beginning of this season, as they played great D in the win over Indy, they have a solid QB in Matt Schaub, and they may get last season’s rushing leader back in Adrian Foster.
The big issue for the Texans for the last few years has been their defense, but in a new 3-4 scheme with first round pick DE J.J. Watt they totally shut down the Colts last week holding them to only 236 total yards (172 passing 64 rushing). Chad Henne, who passed for 416 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to the Patriots, will likely test them this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Reggie Bush had a decent debut in a Miami uniform with 38 yards rushing and making 9 catches for 56 yards and a TD last week. He may be the key for the Fish in this game. Also, Houston had 3 sacks last week, 2 by Mario Williams, so look for them to come after Henne early and often.
Schaub played well in the easy win over the Colts with 220 yards with a TD and he was also picked off twice. He has Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones as his deep threats and even though Miami had a solid pass defense last season they were seriously lit up last week giving up 517 passing yards to the Patriots.
Miami gave up 622 total yards to the Patriots last week and they have to shore up their D or they are in for another home loss. Last season Adrian Foster led the league in rushing yards, but did not play in the home opener. Still, the Texans rushed for 167 yards with backup Ben Tate going for 116. Foster is slated to go in this game and the Dolphins have their work cut out for them.
Betting Trends
Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Miami is e 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points, and has an Over record of 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games.
Jason’s Pick: Miami has been terrible at home recently, Houston has an offense that can light up a scoreboard, and they may have a much improved defense with Wade Phillips as the new defensive coordinator. Yeah, go wit the Texans to win this game in South Beach and cover the 3-point spread and jump on the Over bet in this match up.
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Packers -490 / Panthers +390
Spread (ATS): Packers -10
Over/Under: 47
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Preview
Great week 2 match up with the defending champion Green Bay Packers heading south to take on #1 draft pick Cam Newton, who was stellar in his debut, and the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, the Packers are on the road and Newton may be the real deal, but NFL lines still has Green Bay as big 10-point favorites with a total of 47.
In their opening games of the season the Packers won a barnburner 42-34 against the New Orleans Saints and the Panthers lost 28-21 to the Arizona Cardinals despite the impressive performance by Newton.
Did I say impressive? Well, Newton threw for the most yards (422) by a QB making his first start. WR Steve Smith had 178 receiving yards with 2 TD in the loss to Arizona and new addition TE Greg Olsen chimed in with 4 catches for 78 yards.
Carolina has lost 6 of their last 7 home openers.
The Packers had a great passing defense last season, but in their season opener they gave up 419 yards and 3 TD to Drew Brees and the Saints. Newton did shine in his debut, but there is one thing to touch on. The Cardinals did not want to get killed by Newton running the ball so they brought up players from the secondary to thwart that. Because of that Newton saw open passing lanes and 1-on-1 coverage. The Packers will know that and not give Cam what the Cardinals did.
Newton did not have much help from the rushing offense in week 1, as the Panthers only had 74 rushing yards with DeAngelo Williams only gaining 30 yards on 12 carries averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. That does not live up to the big contract he signed before the season began. Also, while the Packers gave up a ton of passing yards to the Saints they only gave up 81 rushing yards. Williams needs to break out and have a good game this Sunday or the Panthers will start the season 0-2 again. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was named NFC offensive player of the week after going 27/35 passes for 312 yards and 3 TD in the win over the Saints. This does not bode well for a Carolina team that allowed new Arizona QB Kevin Kolb to pass for 309 yards and 2 TD against them last week.
Carolina LB Jon Beason was lost for the season last week with an injury and that is a big blow since he was the anchor for the defense. The Packers rushed for 103 yards last week and the Panthers allowed the Cardinals, who have a sketchy rushing offense at best, to gallop for 99 yards.
Betting Trends
Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 5-2-2 in their last 9 games.
Jason’s Pick: Newton may a solid QB, but the Packers are simply much better on both sides of the ball. Rodgers will not be stopped, the Pack will run the ball well, and they will play solid D. Take the packers to win this game and cover the 10-point spread. Betting trends be damned, as even though the total has gone Under in the last 6 games when the Packers are the road favorite this game will go Over the posted total of 47.
OSU ranks first in the FBS with 1,260 yards from scrimmage and they have scored a grand total of 98 points in their first 2 wins and they face a Tulsa team that gave up 47 points in their season opener against Oklahoma.
