Author: James Hayes

Tennessee Volunteers vs. #16 Florida Gators
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville FL
Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:35 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Tennessee +280, Florida -340
Spread: Tennessee +9.5, Florida -9.5
Over/Under: 50.5

This match-up maybe had more pizzazz in 1997 than it does today, but it is still a classic SEC East rivalry game with a massive TV audience and cuckoo fans. Florida is ranked only #16, rather pedestrian considering it has mostly been a national powerhouse over the past several seasons. The program had a lot of questions to answer going into this season, but has probably shut most people up after winning its first two games by a combined score of 80-3.

For its part, the Tennessee Volunteers are rebuilding a once proud football program. They have some youngsters – especially on offense – that are expediting this process. A band of sophomores: QB Tyler Bray, WRs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers are commanding a passing attack that ranks ninth in the nation. The Vols’ defense hasn’t been quite as stout as Florida’s, but the offense has put up even more points than the Gators (87 points combined) against better competition. Those stats might give Tennessee a little confidence going into The Swamp.

Still, that doesn’t erase the fact the Vols are travelling to Gainesville. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is definitely one of the more intimidating places to play in the nation, and the Gators faithful really don’t like Tennessee. The Vols must be very careful to avoid this game getting out of hand quickly. Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, two of Florida’s ultra-speedy options in the backfield (both players have the speed to be track and field sprint champions) are both averaging over seven yards per carry; the Gators could dump a couple touchdowns on you probably quicker than any team in the country – that result would be just like throwing blood in the water of a shark tank for the frenzied fans in The Swamp. True, Tennessee’s pass attack looks phenomenal, but the defense still has some work to do, so it will be in for a real challenge in Gainesville this weekend.

Tennessee needs to test Florida downfield, as the receivers (especially Hunter) have the speed to get downfield and Bray has a major league arm. Vols RB Tauren Poole is a solid player, but he isn’t a game-changer, so if Tennessee gets intimidated into running a conservative offense, it won’t pay off. The Vols’ vertical passing game is the strength of the team; they can’t deviate from it just because the Gators are a major player with a fast defensive unit.

Florida is definitely explosive, but QB John Brantley and the Gators have had some trouble in the redzone; slowing down Florida’s tempo is a viable strategy to knock it off its rhythm. Looking at the evidence of the second half of 2010 and the first two games this year, Tennessee is on its way back, but it still doesn’t have the talent and depth top-to-bottom that Florida has. The Gators have a much more imposing defense and if Bray turns the ball over more than once or twice, UT is in serious trouble.

This is a vintage rivalry game that brings back memories of Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, etc., yet it may be developing new tastiness with both of these teams looking so dominant lately. While a Tennessee upset on the road would make for bold headlines and a lovely story for any Gator-haters out there, that might still be more of a fairy tale than followers of the sherbet and white would care to admit.

If Tennessee continues on this path in the big picture, however, Rocky Top could have more to celebrate in upcoming seasons. After the mess the program was in following the Lane Kiffin saga, a little patience will go a long way in Knoxville.

Score Prediction: Florida 33, Tennessee 21
Over/Under Prediction: 54

Troy Trojans vs. #14 Arkansas Razorbacks
Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville AR
Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Troy +23, Arkansas -23
Over/Under: 63.5

There’s no dancing around it: the Arkansas Razorbacks have been an offensive juggernaut through the first two weeks of the 2011 season. Albeit against Missouri State and New Mexico, the Hogs have scored a ridiculous 103 combined points through two games. The Hogs also rank eighth in the nation in passing, 37^th in rushing, third in points for and fourth in points against.

The Trojans (Troy, not USC, thank goodness) provide Arkansas’ last “tune-up” game before the SEC slate hits hard and fast. No one has been able to slow down the Razorbacks yet, and Troy shouldn’t strike too much fear – the Trojans are coming off a 43-19 loss to Clemson. The defense got torched against Clemson, and the Razorbacks’ attack is much more imposing than even the Tigers’. Hogs pivot Tyler Wilson has done everything asked of him and more in replacing NFL-bound Ryan Mallett; oftentimes Wilson has been pulled in these routs and backup Brandon Mitchell has come in. Even Mitchell has gotten in on the action, dumping on 218 yards and a pair of TDs in mop-up action.

Arkansas has suffered injuries at the RB position, but it hasn’t seemed to matter. Current starter Ronnie Wingo has played just fine, averaging five yards a carry and providing a different look when Wilson or Mitchell isn’t hucking the ball to Arkansas’ fine stable of receivers. Senior WR Jarius Wright and lanky junior Cobi Hamilton are leading the way – both are pushing 200 receiving yards through a pair of games and are averaging over 15 yards per catch. The defense hasn’t had a stiff test yet, but the unit that was the lone worry of this football team for years has only given up 10 points through its first two match-ups.

Of course, it will be impossible to keep up this torrid pace when the Auburns and the Texas A&Ms and the South Carolinas come to town. But Arkansas is setting very good habits in its early-season non-conference schedule that should carry over to a campaign Hogs fans believe will have their team competing for an SEC West division crown.

To say it for the point of saying it, for the impossible to happen in Fayetteville this Saturday night, Troy would have to deploy its strong passing game (37^th in the NCAA) and its defense would have to pull out a series of miracles in order to slow down the Arkansas attack. The Hogs will probably dump a couple of early scores on the visitors, and it shouldn’t be long before it spirals out of control from there. Troy is usually a contender in the Sun Belt Conference, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Trojans play in the Sun Belt and Arkansas is an SEC West (the strongest conference and the strongest division in college football) contender.

It is silly to anoint Arkansas as all-world after it has only played an FCS team and perhaps the worst team in the Bowl Subdivision, but the way the Hogs have been crushing opponents has been truly impressive. If you get bored watching a cakewalk football game, maybe this isn’t the game for you but conversely if you like offense, it could also be pretty entertaining.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 47, Troy 14
Over/Under Prediction: 60