Auburn Tigers vs Clemson Tigers Handicapping Preview
Week 3’s cross-conference clash between Tigers in the wild jungle of Clemson’s “Death Valley” Stadium should absolutely be worth the price of admission.
#21 Auburn Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers
Clemson Memorial Stadium, Clemson SC
Saturday, Sept. 17, 12:05 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Auburn +135, Clemson -155
Spread: Auburn +3, Clemson -3
Over/Under: 61.5
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The home side will be touching Howard’s Rock with one distinct goal in mind: knocking off last year’s national champ – an Auburn team that is unbeaten, yet has looked vulnerable so far. Clemson is a program known for its talent but also its inconsistency; a victory over Auburn would do much to legitimize the 2011 version of the Purple and Orange.
Even with Auburn’s exodus of talent to the NFL, this goal is still daunting. For whatever reason (call it divine intervention if you must) Auburn simply finds ways to win games. When the defense is more Swiss cheese than iron-clad, when the Auburn offense turns the ball over, it doesn’t seem to matter. The visiting Tigers always play hard until the final whistle and always tend to finish on the winning side.
The key for Clemson to get its crucial home win is to contain Auburn RB Michael Dyer. Auburn has two nail-biting wins this season over Utah State and Mississippi State, they’ve both been high-scoring affairs and they’ve both involved Dyer asserting himself at key times. Dyer scored a couple key majors versus USU in Week One and followed that up with an excellent 150-yard, two TD performance last week.
Troubling for Auburn, meanwhile, is its run defense. The usually stout Tigers “D” has allowed 560 rushing yards, second-worst in the FBS only to Middle Tennessee State. This doesn’t bode well while facing Clemson RB Andre Ellington this Saturday – Ellington ran for 165 yards in a victory over Wofford last week and is one of the ACC’s premier backs when healthy.
Both Utah State and MSU were able to drop points on Auburn and Clemson has plenty of speed and talent on both sides of the ball. Auburn head coach Gene Chizik must get his defense playing better if Auburn is to remain unbeaten. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Every Auburn fan is missing wunderkind QB Cam Newton (who only threw for over 400 yards in his first NFL start last week) but new starter Barrett Trotter has managed things well. Trotter has thrown for 407 yards and a 5-1 TD/INT ratio over the first two weeks of the regular season. Trotter has two legit targets in WR Emory Blake and TE Philip Lutzenkirchen; the passing game seems to be a decent supplement for the great running attack courtesy of Dyer and RB Onterrio McCalebb. But after allowing 38 points to Utah State and 34 to the MSU Bulldogs, the defense has to be the more glaring concern.
Ultimately, the concerns are a moot point so long as Auburn continues to add “W”s in the win column. But this Saturday will see Auburn travelling to a very hostile environment to play a fast-paced, explosive, talented Clemson side. In all likelihood, Auburn cannot keep grinding wins out by the skin of its teeth without paying for it one of these weeks. Clemson pivot Tajh Boyd, a question mark going into the season, has played really well so far (525 passing yards and a 6-1 ratio through two games) and if he keeps it up, he’ll take lots of pressure off Ellington. Clemson hasn’t been perfect either, as it surrendered 27 points to an FCS Wofford team last week. Both of these defenses have athletes and are capable of a lot more.
It’s truly difficult to bet against Auburn lately, as the Tigers always seem to find some miraculous way to pull it out. Yet this is reality and the magic must eventually come to an end. With the Auburn defense looking woeful so far, look for Boyd, Ellington and company to have a big day and to hand Auburn its first loss in quite a long time.
Trends:
Under is 8-0-1 in AUB last 9 vs. ACC.
AUB are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC.
Over is 8-2 in AUB last 10 games in September.
Under is 7-2 in CLEM last 9 vs. SEC.
Under is 8-3 in CLEM last 11 games overall.
CLEM are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC.
Score Prediction: Clemson 31, Auburn 27
Over/Under Prediction: 58
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