This is our waiver wire pick-ups column. Dave B scours the free agent pools in fantasy land for the best available talent every week. Availability, of course, depends on the league. We’re using 12 team, 15 roster spot leagues as the median, but we’ll look for roster candidates for leagues of all shapes and sizes.
After all of the weekly games are finished be sure to check our cheatsheets, a who’s hot, and who’s not report plus more in our fantasy football guide.
Each week, the CappersPicks.com fantasy football guru Dave B brings you players you need to be paying attention to – Remember – fantasy football championships are often won by those who live eat and breath fantasy football.
After all of the weekly games are finished be sure to check our waiver wire column, cheatsheets, a who’s hot, and who’s not report plus more in our fantasy football guide.
Two teams looking for their inaugural win of the season do battle in an important NFC showdown on Monday night when the banged up St. Louis Rams head east to play the injury ravaged New York Giants.
Date: Sunday, September 18, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: ESPN
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
St. Louis Cardinals (81-68 through September 15)
Chris Carpenter (9-9, 3.80)
They’ve flown under the radar of late but the St. Louis Cardinals still have potential to sneak into the National League playoffs through the back door. They’re 5.5 games behind Milwaukee for the NL Central lead and 4.5 games back of Atlanta for the NL Wild Card through Thursday night. The key was going 5-1 during a six-game stretch against both of those teams last week.
On Sunday Night Baseball, they’ll try and improve on their 40-34 road record with a tough trip to the City of Brotherly Love. Chris Carpenter handled the Phillies the last time he faced them, striking out seven over seven innings of one-run ball to get the win. He has a 4.66 lifetime ERA against the Phils but is 6-2 over 10 starts. He’ll hope to right the ship after a four-start stretch this season in which he allowed four-plus runs three times.
Philadelphia Phillies (97-51 through September 15)
Cole Hamels (14-8, 2.71)
The Phils clinched a playoff berth earlier this week and their magic number for the NL East sat at one game through Thursday, so they’ll probably have the division locked up by the time Sunday night’s game arrives.
Cole Hamels has been outstanding this season but his last few starts after a brief DL stint show a few concerning trends. A key to Hamels’ success in 2011 had been curbing his always-high homer rate but he’s allowed five long balls over his last three starts.
Hamels has a 3.00 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis. Switch-hitting Lance Berkman gives him the most trouble, batting .333 over 18 career at-bats. Despite his homer problems, it’s interesting that Hamels has only allowed two taters to current Cardinal regulars: one to Albert Pujols and one to Ryan Theriot.
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The pick:
I expect Pujols to play a major role on Sunday night. Even though he’s just a .150 hitter versus Hamels in his career, that stat is due to change based on each player’s recent trends. Pujols is batting .388 with 13 RBI in 13 games this month whereas Hamels is slumping. A power righty bat like Albert’s in theory should be a threat to Hamels’ gopher-ball ways.
Also considering that the Phillies may not keep Hamels in the game long with the division already clinched, and may throw some long relievers to the wolves, I believe the Cards can pull the road upset.
Sunday Night Baseball prediction: Cardinals 5, Phillies 3
Two teams that haven’t seen post season play in a very long time have found new hope after starting out their respective season with big wins in Week 1, and now will face each other when the Oakland Raiders head east to take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Raiders v Bills
Venue/Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Time/Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 18, 2011
NFL Odds From: 5 Dimes
Moneyline: OFF
Spread (ATS): Bills -3 1/2
Over/Under: 41
The Raiders are looking to go 2-0 for the first time since they last made a postseason appearance, eventually losing to Tampa Bay in the 2002 Super Bowl.
After nearly making the playoffs a year ago, Oakland kicked off the Hue Jackson ear with a 23-20 win at Denver on Monday night.
Quarterback Jason Campbell led the Raiders’ offense, finishing with two touchdowns while Sebastian Janikowski kicked three field goals, including an NFL record-tying 63-yarder just before halftime.
Okay so the Raiders got Janny. But do they possess all the weapons and the discipline they need to end their playoff drought?
Well for starters, they did a good job of avoiding the mistakes that have been their undoing in the past. Avoiding costly turnovers and bad penalties , and Campbell was far from extraordinary in the teams opener, in fact he was closer to ordinary, completing just around 50 percent of his passes.
On the other hand, exalted receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey caught four passes and he looked noticeably improved over prior outings, and the ground game seemed to click, running away for 190 yards against the Broncos.
Once again, workhorse Darren McFadden, who after rushing for more than 1,100 yards last year, shouldered the bulk of the carries, handling the ball 22 times for 150 yards in his 2011 debut. Michel Bush also pitched in with gained 30 yards on nine carries. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Good for Oakland who will need all it can get from its backfield heading into Sunday’s contest against a Bills’ defense that had no trouble stopping Kansas City’s running backs.
Not only were the Bills good at stuffing the run– holding Kansas City to 108 yards– but they were pretty good at dishing it out as well, with premier running back Fred Jackson, who had 20 carries for 112 yards against the Chiefs, leading the way.
He will face his toughest challenge though in Week 2, facing a Raiders defense that shut down the Denver running game allowing just 38 yards on the ground.
That type of defense will force Buffalo to air the ball, something QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is more than capable of. Fitz looked composed under center against the Chiefs, completing 17 passes for just 208 yards but four of them going for touchdowns–two to Scott Chandler who caught five passes for 63 yards and four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown to Steve Johnson.
Matt’s Prediction: Buffalo 21, Raiders 17 – This will likely be a game of defense, and while the Raiders defense has been solid, the Bills, who ranked last against the run last season, have showed cosmic improvement. While I was impressed with the Raiders, I was more impressed with Buffalo’s stunning 41-7 rout of the defending AFC West champions. It isn’t going to take a lot of points to get the win here, as this one stays under the total with the Bills on top.
Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM
Moneyline: Minnesota -147, Tampa Bay +127
Spread (ATS): Minnesota -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Tampa Bay
The Bucs lost their opener at home against Detroit setting off a slew of pundits who believed they wouldn’t be able to match last year’s success. That may turn out to be true but I wouldn’t leap to that conclusion after what I saw on Sunday. Detroit is a good team. Sure losing the home opener is not a great way to start the season but it is not time to run for the fire exits just yet.
Last year Tampa had great balance pounding the rock with LeGarrette Blount and Josh Freeman tossing it to an emerging set of wideouts. Last week the Lions stuffed the Bucs on the ground and then once the team fell behind they couldn’t stick with it. Freeman was forced to throw the ball more than they like and couldn’t make any big plays (long of 22 yards). They should find it easier sledding against Minnesota on the ground and in the air.
These teams used to meet twice a year but with realignment haven’t played each other since 2008. Tampa has won the last 4 meetings covering each time, spanning all the way back to 2001. The Bucs have also proven to be a great road bet of late on a 13-3-1 ATS tear. As an underdog they are a great play this weekend. Given preseason expectations and last week’s performance I would have installed them as the favourite on Sunday. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Minnesota
Many were predicting an embarrassing catastrophe last week when Minnesota visited San Diego. Sure they lost the game but San Diego had to shutout the Vikings in the second half and score 17 points of their own to beat them. The really bad news is not the loss but how bad new QB Donovan McNabb looked. The Christian Ponder era might be starting a little ahead of schedule.
If McNabb can’t get his act together it is going to be very difficult for this team to win. In Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson they have a couple of players who can take it to the house on every touch but they need balance for them both to be potent weapons. Blaming McNabb is easy but when you look closer you see a line that is not all that good and a receiving corps that relies too much on big plays – no reliable chain movers..
Despite the fact that Minnesota is the favourite I really don’t think they will challenge in this one. Even though they lost last week I am still bullish on Tampa and Minnesota didn’t show much after the first 20 minutes against San Diego. The only hope for Minnesota is if Peterson has a tremendous day but I don’t see him torching the Bucs.
ATS Pick: Tampa +3
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Tampa 30 – Minnesota 17
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Texans -155 / Dolphins +135
Spread (ATS): Texans -3
Over/Under: 48
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Preview
Is this the season the Texans finally unseat the Colts atop the AFC South? They got off to a good start by crushing the Manning-less Colts in their first game and while the Dolphins lost their first outing QB Chad Henne had a good game under center. NFL lines have the visiting Texans as 3-point favorites in this AFC match up with a total of 48.
In their last games the Texans killed the Indianapolis Colts 34-7 and the Dolphins lost to the New England Patriots 38-24.
I guess there is no place like home does not apply to the Dolphins, who have lost 5 straight games and 10 of their last 11 games in Miami. On top of that the Texans have beaten the Dolphins in all 5 games they have faced each other.
Houston has a lot of things going for them in the beginning of this season, as they played great D in the win over Indy, they have a solid QB in Matt Schaub, and they may get last season’s rushing leader back in Adrian Foster.
The big issue for the Texans for the last few years has been their defense, but in a new 3-4 scheme with first round pick DE J.J. Watt they totally shut down the Colts last week holding them to only 236 total yards (172 passing 64 rushing). Chad Henne, who passed for 416 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to the Patriots, will likely test them this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Reggie Bush had a decent debut in a Miami uniform with 38 yards rushing and making 9 catches for 56 yards and a TD last week. He may be the key for the Fish in this game. Also, Houston had 3 sacks last week, 2 by Mario Williams, so look for them to come after Henne early and often.
Schaub played well in the easy win over the Colts with 220 yards with a TD and he was also picked off twice. He has Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones as his deep threats and even though Miami had a solid pass defense last season they were seriously lit up last week giving up 517 passing yards to the Patriots.
Miami gave up 622 total yards to the Patriots last week and they have to shore up their D or they are in for another home loss. Last season Adrian Foster led the league in rushing yards, but did not play in the home opener. Still, the Texans rushed for 167 yards with backup Ben Tate going for 116. Foster is slated to go in this game and the Dolphins have their work cut out for them.
Betting Trends
Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Miami is e 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points, and has an Over record of 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games.
Jason’s Pick: Miami has been terrible at home recently, Houston has an offense that can light up a scoreboard, and they may have a much improved defense with Wade Phillips as the new defensive coordinator. Yeah, go wit the Texans to win this game in South Beach and cover the 3-point spread and jump on the Over bet in this match up.
Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PMMoneyline: New Orleans -312, Chicago +245
Spread (ATS): New Orleans -7.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Chicago
The Chicago Bears surprised by beating the Atlanta Falcons 30-12 in the opener. If you watched the game (it wasn’t pretty) than you know it wasn’t as lopsided as the final score appeared. With the exception of a defensive TD by Atlanta in the 4th quarter all the big plays in the game were made by the Bears. It is unreasonable to think that they can be that explosive the whole season….and it is different playing on the road than at home for sure.
Jay Cutler was pretty good in the opener throwing for more than 300 yards. A third of that yardage came on two plays as the Bears were more explosive than usual (I just couldn’t come up with another word for explosive). They didn’t do too much damage on the ground but were able to get yards when they needed them. The most encouraging thing to take away from last week was the play of the defensive line. Henry Melton and Julius Peppers both had two sacks. They will need to get pressure on Drew Brees to beat the Saints.
Winning at home against a top team from the NFC South is one thing but going into the Superdome and beating the Saints is something altogether different. The Bears may have won 4 in a row against the Saints but the last three have been at home and the fourth was back in 2005 when a guy named Aaron Brooks was the Aints quarterback. A lot has changed since then. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
New Orleans
Thrilling ending to the opener on Thursday night. I am still wondering why Coach Payton thought the smart play was taking the ball out of Drew Brees hands on the final play. It shows confidence in the line and rookie RB Mark Ingram but I think it was also a little bit of him outsmarting himself. Nevertheless they are back at home looking to get back to winning, although a little dinged up.
Last week’s game turned on Marques Colston’s lost fumble. The Saints had little trouble moving the ball but dug themselves too deep a hole to ultimately win the game. Drew Brees was very sharp and with Colston out he will rely even more on spreading the ball around. The running game was pretty ineffective against the Pack and it won’t get much easier against Chicago this week. They use it just to keep the offense honest though.
The Saints are in a great bounce back spot here. They are playing at home and have a couple of extra days to prepare after opening the season last Thursday. This is one of the most explosive offenses in the league and the defense is probably better than it showed against an amped up and very talented Green Bay team. The line is a little heavy at -7.5 but I think it is manageable though there are better bets on the board.
ATS Pick: New Orleans -7.5
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: New Orleans 34 – Chicago 23
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM
Moneyline: Detroit -357, KC +275
Spread (ATS): Detroit -9
Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Kansas City
Well those pundits who thought the Chiefs record was inflated last year certainly got what they were looking for in week 1 as the Chiefs were pounded by the Buffalo Bills 41-7. It was a sloppy game by Kansas City that felt pretty much over by halftime. The Chiefs did little in the second half to respond which is part of the reason the line on on this one has jumped since it opened. It kind of looked like they were just going through the motions.
There was some concern that QB Matt Cassell might not play last week but he started, he just didn’t have a very good game. He completed 22 passes for a shockingly low 119 yards. You have to move the ball deeper down the field with your passing game, especially if you want to give your running game a chance. Fortunately when the running backs did tote the ball they were pretty effective…the game against Buffalo got out of hand so fast they just couldn’t stick with it.
If you include pre-season the Chiefs have now lost 7 games in row and few are giving them a chance to bounce back this weekend at Detroit. These teams haven’t met since 2007 when their makeup was much different, more importantly they appear to be going in different directions right now and Kansas City’s is not a good one. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Detroit
It was a great win for the Lions at Tampa. With expectations building over the offseason it was important to their pysche that they play well with the win the icing on the cake. With the Chiefs coming to town this weekend they have a great opportunity to show that they are a real threat in the NFC. I hope they won’t regress now that they are actually in the conversation. With a win on Sunday they could easily be 3-0 after next weekend.
Everything went pretty much according to plan for Detroit. Stafford was solid with 300+ yards passing, Calvin Johnson hauled in a couple of TDs and Jahvid Best didn’t get hurt (canned laughter). To get to that next level they need Best to become more of a threat – his longest run was just 9 yards. On defense they did a great job shutting down the Bucs power running game which bodes really well for playing the Chiefs who want to gash opponents on the ground.
The line on this one has really run up throughout the week. It was Detroit – 3.5 to start and now it is as high as -9 in some places. At anything under -7 I was definitely behind the Lions but now it is a little too rich for my blood. The Lions are likely to get steam until they lose a game, then you should be able to get some serious value on them. Right now you might just want to enjoy as a fan.
ATS Pick: KC +9
Over/Under Pick:
Score Prediction: Detroit 31 – Kansas City 24
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Packers -490 / Panthers +390
Spread (ATS): Packers -10
Over/Under: 47
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Preview
Great week 2 match up with the defending champion Green Bay Packers heading south to take on #1 draft pick Cam Newton, who was stellar in his debut, and the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, the Packers are on the road and Newton may be the real deal, but NFL lines still has Green Bay as big 10-point favorites with a total of 47.
In their opening games of the season the Packers won a barnburner 42-34 against the New Orleans Saints and the Panthers lost 28-21 to the Arizona Cardinals despite the impressive performance by Newton.
Did I say impressive? Well, Newton threw for the most yards (422) by a QB making his first start. WR Steve Smith had 178 receiving yards with 2 TD in the loss to Arizona and new addition TE Greg Olsen chimed in with 4 catches for 78 yards.
Carolina has lost 6 of their last 7 home openers.
The Packers had a great passing defense last season, but in their season opener they gave up 419 yards and 3 TD to Drew Brees and the Saints. Newton did shine in his debut, but there is one thing to touch on. The Cardinals did not want to get killed by Newton running the ball so they brought up players from the secondary to thwart that. Because of that Newton saw open passing lanes and 1-on-1 coverage. The Packers will know that and not give Cam what the Cardinals did.
Newton did not have much help from the rushing offense in week 1, as the Panthers only had 74 rushing yards with DeAngelo Williams only gaining 30 yards on 12 carries averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. That does not live up to the big contract he signed before the season began. Also, while the Packers gave up a ton of passing yards to the Saints they only gave up 81 rushing yards. Williams needs to break out and have a good game this Sunday or the Panthers will start the season 0-2 again. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was named NFC offensive player of the week after going 27/35 passes for 312 yards and 3 TD in the win over the Saints. This does not bode well for a Carolina team that allowed new Arizona QB Kevin Kolb to pass for 309 yards and 2 TD against them last week.
Carolina LB Jon Beason was lost for the season last week with an injury and that is a big blow since he was the anchor for the defense. The Packers rushed for 103 yards last week and the Panthers allowed the Cardinals, who have a sketchy rushing offense at best, to gallop for 99 yards.
Betting Trends
Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 5-2-2 in their last 9 games.
Jason’s Pick: Newton may a solid QB, but the Packers are simply much better on both sides of the ball. Rodgers will not be stopped, the Pack will run the ball well, and they will play solid D. Take the packers to win this game and cover the 10-point spread. Betting trends be damned, as even though the total has gone Under in the last 6 games when the Packers are the road favorite this game will go Over the posted total of 47.
Time/Date: Sunday September 18, 2011 – 8:20 PM ET
NFL Odds
Moneyline: Eagles -130
Spread (ATS): Eagles -1.5
Over/Under: 49.5
When Michael Vick left the Atlanta Falcons and the NFL for federal prison five years ago, there was little indication that he would get a second chance of living out his dream of becoming a Super Bowl champion. Fast-forward to 2011 and Vick, now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, will make his return to the place that dream died so long ago looking to take the next step in his pursuit of an NFL championship, as part of a new “dream team”. Expectations are high for the Pro Bowl quarterback in his first full season as a starter for the Eagles, and this weekend’s Primetime showdown against the team that drafted him represents a crucial step towards reaching those goals.
For the Falcons, the bar is just as high after finishing atop the NFC with 14 wins a year ago, only to be eliminated by the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in their lone playoff game. While Vick has thrived in his comeback with the Eagles, Atlanta hasn’t missed a beat with the development of Matt Ryan as their franchise quarterback, who they feel is ready to take another step forward this season. However, Ryan struggled in the opener at Chicago week one, turning the ball over twice and failing to reach the endzone despite throwing for 319 yards in a 30-12 loss. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
What was projected to be an explosive passing attack with the addition of rookie first round pick Julio Jones to a group that already consisted of Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez showed flashes week one, but they will need to find a way to score. The Atlanta defense looked lost at times against the Bears, and that doesn’t project well heading into a matchup against the explosive Eagles.
Despite a slow start, Philadelphia put up 403 total yards of offense in a 31-13 win at the St. Louis Rams week one, with Michael Vick accounting for 284 of those yards both on the ground and through the air, as well as two touchdown passes. Running back LeSean McCoy looked explosive with 122 yards and one score on only 15 carries, and if he gets going again this week, Atlanta will be in trouble. The Eagles’ defense allowed a touchdown on the Ram’s first possession, but held them to six points the rest of the way to give fans a taste of how good that group can be. If Philadelphia comes out firing on all cylinders again week two, then they should be able to get the job done in their first real test of the season as Vick celebrates his return in style
NFL Betting Pick: Eagles
Time/Date: 1:00 PM EST, September 18, 2011
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Browns vs. Colts Gambling Odds from BetOnline
Spread: Browns -2.5
Moneyline: Browns (-135) Colts (+115)
Over/Under: 40
Peyton Manning is on the shelf for quite a while, and the Indianapolis Colts showed just how badly they miss him last weekend. The Browns were expected to roll over the lowly Bengals, but Cincinnati beat Cleveland in the season opener. Both of these teams had to be extremely disappointed with their performance in week one. Which team will bounce back with a big win?
Colt McCoy and the Browns offense just never really got it going against the Bengals defense. McCoy threw two touchdowns and one interception, but he completed only 47.5% of his passes last week. The running game really struggled to get going, because the Browns offensive front just couldn’t get much of a push against Cincinnati. Peyton Hillis continued to show his value out of the backfield. Hillis caught six passes, three more than any other Brown did last weekend. Cleveland will certainly be looking to get Hillis more than 17 carries this week against the Colts.
The Cleveland defense really blew it when they got caught napping in the fourth quarter last weekend by the Bengals. Cincinnati quick snapped while the Browns were still in the huddle, and A.J. Green was wide open for a 41 yard touchdown reception. The Browns pass defense was pretty solid for most of the game, but they did allow too many yards on the ground. Cedric Benson put up 121 yards rushing. Joe Haden and T.J. Ward lead a talented secondary for Cleveland. I expect them to be ready to bounce back this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
There were plenty of questions about how Kerry Collins would perform as the Colts starter before last weekend. After last weekend’s drubbing, there are even more questions now. Collins numbers actually weren’t that awful last week, but those who watched the game saw that this Colts offense really struggled to get into a groove last weekend. Collins had two costly fumbles, and the running game never got going at all against the Texans. Clearly this is an offense that will have to try to score in different ways without Manning at the helm. It will be interesting to see what kind of changes they make to the game plan this week.
It was the Colts run defense that really let them down last week. Despite Arian Foster being out of the lineup, Houston still ran for 167 yards. Ben Tate had 116 yards rushing in his first career start. Over the past few years, the Colts front seven has had a lot of difficulty stopping the run. Indianapolis has a solid secondary and two very god pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but the middle of the defense must improve against the run. They’ll be tested by Hillis and the Browns in this one.
I don’t expect the Colts to play nearly as bad as they did a week ago. The Browns secondary is pretty good, and the Colts aren’t a good running team. At the same time, I could see the Colts getting to Colt McCoy fairly often here. I think this one has the makings of an ugly low scoring game.
Free NFL Pick: Under 40
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST, September 18, 2011
Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Broadcast: CBS
Bengals vs. Broncos Gambling Odds from BetOnline
Spread: Broncos -3.5
Moneyline: Broncos (-180) Bengals (+160)
Over/Under: 40
The fans will likely continue chanting for Tim Tebow, but John Fox made it pretty clear that he is sticking with Kyle Orton as his starting quarterback. Andy Dalton and a young Cincinnati Bengals team will visit Denver this weekend. The Broncos are coming off a tough loss to the Raiders, while the Bengals are coming off a surprising victory over the Browns.
Andy Dalton was efficient in his time as the starter last weekend, but he injured his wrist and had to miss the second half. Bruce Gradkowksi struggled at the beginning of his time in the game, but he connected on a great quick snap pass to A.J. Green to put the Bengals in front late in the fourth quarter. While the quarterback play was pretty good, it was the running of Cedric Benson that was key for the Bengals last weekend. Benson gained 121 yards on 25 carries in last week’s win. If this team is going to be successful at all this year, they must be able to run the football consistently.
The Cincinnati defense was pretty impressive last week. The front four dominated the Browns offensive line, and they really held Peyton Hillis and the Browns running game in check. The Bengals have a couple very solid corners in Nate Clements and Leon Hall. Rey Maualuga looks like he has made the transition to middle linebacker quite successfully. The Bengals are hoping to get Keith Rivers back soon, but he is questionable this week. The defense is expected to be the strength of the Bengals team this season. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Billboards around Denver are starting to pop up with Play Tim Tebow messages, and the fans are clearly getting upset already. Kyle Orton threw for 304 yards last week, but a crucial fumble cost the Broncos a chance of winning last week. Brandon Lloyd has emerged as a star wide receiver for this Broncos team. He had six catches for 89 yards last week. The running game struggled all last year, and they weren’t good against Oakland either. Knowshon Moreno is likely out this weekend, so expect Willis McGahee to get most of the carries. John Fox really wants the Broncos to establish a running game.
The Broncos defense only allowed 105 passing yards against Oakland, but the Raiders rolled up 190 yards on the ground. Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey were the leading tacklers for Denver last week. It’s never a good sign when your secondary leads the team in tackles, especially when the other team didn’t throw it very often at all. Von Miller showed flashes of brilliance last weekend, and I expect the Broncos to blitz the young Bengals quarterback early and often this week.
I don’t think either of these teams will be very good this year. The Broncos like to throw it, but the Bengals secondary is pretty good. Cincinnati’s offense isn’t good at all at this point, but they can probably run it some against Denver. I think this goes down to the wire.
Free NFL Pick: Bengals +3.5
Time/Date: Monday September 19, 2011 – 8:30 PM ET
NFL Odds
Moneyline: Giants -270
Spread (ATS): Giants -6
Over/Under: 44
Steve Spagnuolo earned his first job as an NFL head coach by proving his merit as defensive coordinator of the New York Giants in 2007 and 2008. Now, the man who led the St. Louis Rams to within one win of a division title in his first season in control will look for his first win of year two against that same team he helped win a Super Bowl back in 2007. Both teams are battling a plethora of injuries that contributed to week one losses, and will clash at MetLife Stadium under the bright lights of Monday night hoping to avoid consecutive losses to open their respective seasons.
The Giants will likely be without two of the defensive stars that helped Spagnuolo’s units lead the league with 53 sacks in 2007, as ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are both injured. New York is already without cornerback Terrell Thomas and linebacker Jonathan Goff for the remainder of the season, and as injuries take their toll on the defense it will be up to Eli Manning and the offense to get things done. Manning struggled against the rival Washington Redskins week one as he completed just over 50-percent of his passes for 268 yards and an interception, while the running game never really got going either with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combining for just 73 yards on 19 carries. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The offense will need to be better Monday night, and that could be tough as Spagnuolo is already familiar with their strengths and weaknesses, especially with the chance that wide receiver Hakeem Nicks could also miss the game with a knee injury.
The third-year head coach had to be happy to hear that quarterback Sam Bradford will be able to play this week after bruising his right index finger in the fourth quarter of the Rams’ 31-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. How the injury will affect his play will be one of the keys to the game for St. Louis, as well as whether or not running back Stephen Jackson and wide receiver Danny Amendola will be cleared to play. The Rams’ defense improved dramatically a year ago under Spagnuolo, but seemed to wear down against Philadelphia as the game went on. If Bradford can operate at a high level and Jackson plays then St. Louis should be able to keep this one close in Spagnuolo’s return, but it will be very tough to push a contender like New York to 0-2 on the road.
NFL Betting Pick: Giants
Date: Sunday, September 18, 2011
Time: 2:16 PM ET (scheduled green flag)
TV: 2:00 PM ET on ESPN
Preview: At long last, the ten-race NASCAR Chase is here, starting with this Sunday’s “GEICO 400” at Chicagoland Speedway. This is the first time since the inception of the Chase in 2004 that it has started at the Chicago track, and only the 11th race at the speedway in Sprint Cup history. All seven previous Chase sessions started at Loudon, New Hampshire, and all ten previous Chicago races took place in July. In addition, the once-a-year Chicago race has been a Saturday night event since 2008. Seven of the ten races here have been won by Chevy teams, while Ford has never been to Victory Lane at Chicago in a Cup race. Six of the 12 Chase drivers are previous winners here.
Safe Bet: (odds of less than 10/1)
• Jeff Gordon (7/1): Gordon has the best average finish at Chicago (8.6) with a win here in 2006. He finished 2nd in 2009 and 3rd in 2010. Gordon was 6th-fastest in Happy Hour and also looked strong on longer runs. He won at Atlanta two weeks ago and finished 3rd last week at Richmond. Gordon is 3rd in points to start the Chase.
Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
• Kevin Harvick (10/1): Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only drivers with more than one win at Chicagoland with two wins a piece. Harvick’s wins here came back in 2001-2002, but he’s finished 4th or better three of the last five Chicagoland outings. Kevin was in the top 3 in Happy Hour and will be riding the momentum of last weekend’s win at Richmond, where he led 202 laps. He starts the Chase tied with Kyle Busch for the points lead.
Long Shot: (odds of greater than 20/1)
• Kasey Kahne (22/1): Though he’s never won at Chicago, Kahne has finished as high as 3rd (2009) and ran 6th here last year. In Happy Hour practice on Friday, he was second-fastest on the speed chart, which could lead to a strong qualifying run and good pit stall selection Saturday.
Summary: There are lots of unknowns heading into Sunday’s race, since the Cup Series has never run here in September and hasn’t had a daytime race at Chicago since 2007. But, with half the current Chase field previous winners at Chicagoland, it won’t be surprising to see a Chase contender in Victory Lane again on Sunday.
Not that Ralph Wilson is hard to top, but there isn’t a more popular sports owner in Buffalo than Terry Pegula right now. From the moment he bought the Sabres in February 2011, he vowed that the culture would change and that the team would start spending. He delivered on his promise as Buffalo made some serious offseason moves. Where do the suped-up Sabres fit into the Eastern Conference playoff picture?
BUFFALO SABRES
Stanley Cup odds: +1600
The 2011-12 Sabres look on paper like an exaggerated, slightly better version of last year’s team. They improved in the offseason but did so in areas where they already had depth and strength.
Buffalo is built from the back-end out. Ryan Miller regressed in 2010-11 following his Vezina Trophy-winning campaign the year. He’s started 68 and 65 games over the last few seasons; now that Buffalo has a reasonable backup goalie in Jhonas Enroth, it may shrink Miller’s number to 60 in hopes of resting him for the playoffs.
In front of Miller will be one of the league’s most improved, versatile defense corps. Tyler Myers was inconsistent in his sophomore year but the big fella’s strong second half suggests he’ll be a force in year three. He has a great shutdown guy to learn from this season in Robyn Regehr, whom Buffalo acquired from Calgary this offseason. The Sabres will get some offense from Jordan Leopold, another former Flame who enjoyed a career revival last year, plus Christian Ehrhoff. The Ehrhoff signing signalled a changing of the guard: Pegula opened his wallet to land a coveted free agent and wasn’t done after nabbing Ehrhoff.
Buffalo also added free agent Ville Leino. He’s a talented, creative, two way player with good speed and hands who joins many other talented, creative, two-way players with good speed and hands. The Sabres get more of what they already had with Leino but he should be a solid addition nonetheless.
The Sabres have a young, fleet-footed group of forwards with breakout potential. They know what they have with reliable scorers like Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville. But tiny Tyler Ennis could take his game to the next level after tallying 49 points as a rookie.
And what about Drew Stafford? Hyped as the power forward Buffalo was waiting for, he disappointed for his first few pro seasons. Then, last season, it all clicked for Stafford. The former first-rounder went off for 31 goals in 62 games, scoring at better than a 40-goal pace. He’ll be a major weapon, especially on the power play, if he can duplicate his performance.
Buffalo’s star power comes from the back, with Miller and Myers emerging as franchise pillars. The rest of its roster is laden with depth and second-tier talent — a lot of it. Buffalo looks like a safe bet to make the playoffs and this young, exciting group has the upside to do a lot more than that. The Sabres are a legit Stanley Cup sleeper.
Prediction:2n, Northeast Division
