Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings
Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM
Moneyline: Minnesota -147, Tampa Bay +127
Spread (ATS): Minnesota -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Tampa Bay
The Bucs lost their opener at home against Detroit setting off a slew of pundits who believed they wouldn’t be able to match last year’s success. That may turn out to be true but I wouldn’t leap to that conclusion after what I saw on Sunday. Detroit is a good team. Sure losing the home opener is not a great way to start the season but it is not time to run for the fire exits just yet.
Last year Tampa had great balance pounding the rock with LeGarrette Blount and Josh Freeman tossing it to an emerging set of wideouts. Last week the Lions stuffed the Bucs on the ground and then once the team fell behind they couldn’t stick with it. Freeman was forced to throw the ball more than they like and couldn’t make any big plays (long of 22 yards). They should find it easier sledding against Minnesota on the ground and in the air.
These teams used to meet twice a year but with realignment haven’t played each other since 2008. Tampa has won the last 4 meetings covering each time, spanning all the way back to 2001. The Bucs have also proven to be a great road bet of late on a 13-3-1 ATS tear. As an underdog they are a great play this weekend. Given preseason expectations and last week’s performance I would have installed them as the favourite on Sunday. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Minnesota
Many were predicting an embarrassing catastrophe last week when Minnesota visited San Diego. Sure they lost the game but San Diego had to shutout the Vikings in the second half and score 17 points of their own to beat them. The really bad news is not the loss but how bad new QB Donovan McNabb looked. The Christian Ponder era might be starting a little ahead of schedule.
If McNabb can’t get his act together it is going to be very difficult for this team to win. In Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson they have a couple of players who can take it to the house on every touch but they need balance for them both to be potent weapons. Blaming McNabb is easy but when you look closer you see a line that is not all that good and a receiving corps that relies too much on big plays – no reliable chain movers..
Despite the fact that Minnesota is the favourite I really don’t think they will challenge in this one. Even though they lost last week I am still bullish on Tampa and Minnesota didn’t show much after the first 20 minutes against San Diego. The only hope for Minnesota is if Peterson has a tremendous day but I don’t see him torching the Bucs.
ATS Pick: Tampa +3
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Tampa 30 – Minnesota 17
