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UFC 169 Preview and Picks

With Dominick Cruz back on the sidelines Renan Barao and Urijah Faber will fight for the second time to determine the top dog in the Bantamweight Division.

UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber
Date: February 1, 2014
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
Main Card (PPV)
Renan Barao (31-1-0): -285
Urijah Faber (30-6-0): +225
UFC Odds From Bovada

This is a rematch of a very close fight in which Barao came out on top. Faber would love nothing more than to win and get a shot at Cruz once he returns – Barao will be motivated to defend the interim title for the third time since Cruz’s injury.

Renan Barao may be one of the most well-rounded fighters in the game today. A strong Muay Thai background making him one of the most feared strikers in the games and he also has a Black Belt in Jiu-jitsu that has helped him to 14 submission victories in his 32 fight career.

Faber is another guy that brings a very well-rounded game to the Octagon. He may be the more athletic of the two fighters and he brings a very strong wrestling base and technical game each and every time out. The lone possible hole in his game is striking but that has certainly improved over the last could of years. Faber, like Barao can beat you anywhere a fight happens to go.

The first fight was very close – the winner of this bout will be the one that has improved more since the first encounter. That honor goes to Urijah Faber whose striking has dramatically improved since the last fight. A true student of the fight game, look for Faber to go to school on what Barao hopes to do and find a fight plan to secure victory.

Pick: Urijah Faber +225

Jose Aldo (23-1-0): -625
Ricardo Lamas (13-2-0): +450

The terrific Jose Aldo steps back onto the Octagon on Saturday to defend his 145 pound title, looking for his 17th straight win overall. His opposition Saturday – the #2 ranked Featherweight in the world – Ricardo Lamas who enters on a four fight win streak.

Jose Aldo is one of the more dominant champions in the UFC today – nobody has really come close to snatching his title. His Muay Thai is incredible, his leg kicks are lethal and his “air of invincibility” is a real thing.

Lamas has the wrestling and the striking to be a #1 contender but there is no way he defeats Aldo. If Lamas could get close to Aldo, he may have a puncher’s chance – I just don’t see him being able to close the gap enough.

Pick: Jose Aldo -625

Frank Mir (16-8-0): +240
Alistair Overeem (36-13-0): -300

In what is sure to be a “loser gets cut match” Heavyweights Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem will be fighting for their future spot in the organization Saturday. Both men have been disappointing to say the least their last couple of outings – both have a ton to prove Saturday.

This is your classic “grappler vs. striker” matchup – Mir being the grappler and Overeem being the striker. Mir is one of the best Heavyweight submission fighters of all time while Overeem is one of the best pure strikers ever in MMA.

Frank Mir is going to have to bang with Overeem in this one – Alistair’s takedown defense and ability to work in the clinch will make it tough for Mir to get this fight to the mat. The winner here will be able to drag their opponent into their type of fight while taking their opponent out of their plan. I see Overeem being able to keep this fight standing and ending this fight early via first round TKO.

Pick: Alistair Overeem -300

John Lineker (23-6-0): +100
Ali Bagautinov (12-2-0): -130

Flyweights take to the Octagon when John Lineker who won all three of his fights last year (but missed weight in two) takes on the very dangerous Ali Bagautinov who has not only been perfect so far in the UFC but has also won 10 straight fights. The winner of this fight will likely get a title shot, assuming that Lineker can control his eating!

Both men have knockouts on their mind – Lineker has won three straight by KO while Bagautinov can also do some damage with his hands. The difference between the two is that Lineker will be the aggressor and Bagautinov will utilize a strong counter punching game.
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Bagautinov has moved to New Mexico to train with the Jackson camp – his preparation ahead of this fight will be like no other he’s had before. Although Lineker has been destroying his competition, Bagautinov’s game is the perfect answer to Lineker’s style. I see a unanimous decision win here for the Russian as he climbs up the 125 pound ladder,

Pick: Ali Bagautinov -135

Abel Trujillo (11-5-0): +125
Jamie Varner (21-8-1): -155

Lightweights Abel Trujillo and Jamie Varner will try to make a little noise in the stacked Lightweight division Saturday. Varner is a former WEC Lightweight Champion who will be looking to stabilize a career that has been up and down the last couple of years while Trujillo will be looking to prove why he is one of the most feared prospects in the game right now.

Varner’s inconsistency has kept him out of title contention – I think that creeps up on him again. Despite a lack of wrestling defense, Trujillo should be able to utilize his terrific striking to keep Varner at bay. Trujillo’s recent work with Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson should have given him some grappling chops to boot.

Pick: Abel Trujillo +125

Preliminary Card (FS1)

John Makdessi (12-2-0): -165 vs. Alan Patrick (11-0-0): +135
Pick: John Makdessi -165

Chris Cariaso (15-5-0): -150 vs. Danny Martinez (16-4-0): +120
Pick: Chris Cariaso -150

Nick Catone (9-4-0): +160 vs. Tom Watson (16-6-0): -200
Pick: Tom Watson -200

Al Iaquinta (7-2-1): -260 vs. Kevin Lee (6-0-0): +200
Pick: Al Iaquinta -260

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Clint Hester (9-3-0): -200 vs. Andy Enz (7-0-0): +160
Pick: Clint Hester +160

Tony Martin (7-0-0): +220 vs. Rashid Magomedov (15-1-0): -280
Pick: Rashid Magomedov -280

Neil Magny (8-3-0): +145 vs. Gasan Umalatov (14-2-1): -175
Pick: Gasan Umalatov -175

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