2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens are the Eastern Conference’s answer to the Nashville Predators. Every year, most pundits expect them to flop; the general perception is that the Habs just don’t have that much talent. However, every year, Montreal finds a way to defy the odds and win. Will 2011-12 be Montreal’s umpteenth Cinderella season or will the bottom finally fall out?
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Stanley Cup odds: +2000
The Habs were among the least active teams in free agency and the few moves they made were widely questioned. Past his prime, injury-prone Erik Cole will give Montreal some badly needed size up front – but for how many games? The Canadiens grossly overpaid for such a high-risk, medium-reward player.
The reward for defenseman Andrei Markov is higher but Montreal paid top dollar to re-sign a guy who has played 52 of a possible 164 games over the past two seasons. Can he still be an elite player at age 33?
The rest of Montreal’s roster to me is Carey Price, P.K. Subban and the other guys. Price became an elite goaltender last season and should stay that way. Subban is a special talent on defense, an intimidator, a hard hitter and shooter, and a real game-changer. He’s just getting started, too.
But where’s the upside on the rest of Montreal’s roster? Mike Cammalleri is in his prime and should chip in 30 or so goals but he’s injury-prone. Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez and Tomas Plekanec are second-tier scorers on the wrong side of 30 years old. Max Pacioretty emerged as a scoring threat last season but his ceiling is low. If Andrei Kostitsyn was going to become an elite NHL goal scorer, it would’ve happened by now.
Josh Gorges, Hal Gill, Jaroslav Spacek and Yannick Weber join Markov and Subban to form a pretty decent defense. The Habs should again be among the league’s stingier teams.
It’s amazing how similar the top four squads in the Northeast are in their approaches (not their skill levels). Boston, Buffalo, Toronto and Montreal all look like they’ll rely on defense and goaltending more than scoring to succeed this season.
The problem for Montreal is that its model for success looks like the least sustainable of those four teams. Too many of its most important forwards and defenseman are old and/or injury prone. Markov is a major re-injury risk because his injuries were so severe. Cammalleri is a good bet to miss time again because he’s small and brittle.
Montreal still has enough defensive ability and veteran savvy to be a competitive team this season – but I believe they’ll be a bubble team that eventually finishes on the outside looking in. Fans of the Leafs/Habs rivalry could be thrilled this season, as I see the No. 8 seed in the East coming down to an epic battle between the Leafs and Habs. This time, I think the younger, higher-upside Leafs will finally get the better of their old foes.
Look for 2011-12 to signal the start of what could be a long, painful rebuild for Montreal Canadiens, whose prospect cupboard is pretty bare.
Prediction:4th, Northeast Division
