NFL Week 11 – Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins Preview
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Bears at Dolphins Matchup
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
Date/Time: Thursday, Nov. 15 – 8:20 p.m.
Venue: LandShark Stadium, Miami
Bears vs. Dolphins lines
MoneyLine: Bears even/Dolphins -120
Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Over/Under: 40
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Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins preview
Chad Henne out indefinitely. Chad Pennington out for the year. Just another bizarre game for the Dolphins, who find themselves at a respectable 5-4, theoretically in playoff contention but with a future as uncertain as the QB position itself. Thigpen, the emergency QB, will probably get the call for the immediate future, and immediate is the applicable word as the Fins must play Thursday, at home against Da Bears. Tony Sparano has, like, one full day of practice to figure out what he has in Thigpen and bring him up to speed on the Miami offense.
Bears coach Lovie Smith may not be the reincarnation of Vince Lombardi, but he’s smart enough to figure out that the Dolphins will pass the ball only under duress. Unfortunately for Miami, that duress may come soon on Thursday night because the Bears have the second- best defense in the league against the run. Last Sunday Chicago held Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson to just 51 yards on 17 carries in the Bears’ somewhat easy 27-13 victory, and Miami has to figure that it will see more than its share of third-and-longs Thursday night.
Chicago forced Minnesota into three turnovers (yes, they still count even if they go on Brett Favre’s tab), and it’s apparent that Chicago, which somehow has managed to win 6 of 9 games this season, can be competitive if Jay Cutler keeps things on the conservative side. Even with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator, Cutler’s interception and TD numbers are down from last season’s disastrous totals. (He had 26 INTs and 27 TDs in 2009, and 9 INTs and 12 TDs this year so far.)
Trends:
Under is 10-2 in CHI last 12 games on grass.
CHI are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 in CHI last 8 road games.
Over is 10-1-1 in MIA last 12 home games.
Over is 6-1-1 in MIA last 8 games on grass.
MIA are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 11.
The picks: Location is everything, in business and in the NFL, and the Dolphins find themselves stuck in an AFC East in which the leaders (Jets and Patriots) are a combined 14-4 this season. Miami would probably coast home in the AFC West or NFC West.
But they have the play the cards they’re dealt, and the cards right now are pretty weak. It’s a short week, and even the bizarre Bears present a challenge for a team without a quarterback. Chicago +1.5 looks like the pick here, as Miami has not played well at home this season.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.
