Super Bowl XLIV- Betting Preview
The first week of Super Bowl hype was actually buffeted by the Pro Bowl which was played on Sunday night, but as we head in to week two it will now start up in full force. The Indianapolis Colts are trying to win their second Super Bowl in four years, while the New Orleans Saints are making their first trip to the Championship game in franchise history.
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It all kicks off this Sunday, February 7th at 6:00 P.M. from Sun Life Stadium in Miami.
Here is a preview of the game along with the current odds as supplied by MySportsbook.com..
Super Bowl XLIV
Indianapolis Colts (-6) vs. New Orleans Saints
Current Over/Under 56.5
The early money appears to be on Indianapolis as the spread has climbed to six points after opening at 4½. The total line has crept up a ½ point after opening at 56.
The big news out of Miami so far has to be the status of Colt’s All Pro DE Dwight Freeney for this game. Freeney injured his right ankle in their win over New York and it is now been determined that it is much worse then they first thought. He is currently listed as questionable, but many feel this status is extremely optimistic. Even if he is able to go, you have to believe that his effectiveness of putting outside pressure on Saint’s QB Drew Brees will somewhat diminished. This injury could have a major impact on the Colt’s game plan as both teams realize that putting pressure on the other team’s quarterback is the key to winning this game. The Colt’s defensive unit is a bit more solid from top to bottom than the Saints, but taking Freeney out of the mix would swing the advantage back over in favor of New Orleans.
This game features the top two quarterbacks in the league. Saints’ QB Drew Brees finished the regular season with a passer ranking of 109.6, the highest in the league and led the NFL in TD passes with 34. Colt’s QB Peyton Manning was second in completions with 393 and tied for second in TD passes with 33. He was also named league MVP for the fourth time in his career. Both these players have carried this production into the postseason as Brees has completed 40 passes in 63 attempts for 444 yards and has thrown six TD’s and no interceptions in the two games he has played.
Not to be outdone, Manning has completed 56 of 83 attempts for 623 yards and has five TD passes against just one interception in two games as well. While I would give the edge to Manning, the quarterback that turns in the best performance on Sunday should find his team hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of the game.
Another key aspect of this game is each team’s running game. This advantage clearly goes to the Saints in this category as their rushing offense finished the regular season ranked 6th, while the Colt’s were ranked 32nd. In two post season games, New Orleans averaged 119.5 rushing yards per game while the Colts have averaged 71.5. If the Saint’s can establish an early running game it will more than likely open up some big passing opportunities downfield. The Colt’s on the other hand will most likely rely on Manning spreading the ball around to multiple receivers as opposed to trying to move the ball on the ground.
On paper the Colts have a slightly better team and they also have the intangible of experience in big games on their side. The one thing both these teams have is the ability to come from behind to win a game so no lead will be safe. In the end this will most likely turn into a shootout that should remain close until the end. For that reason
Free Super Bowl Over/Under Pick:
I’m taking the Saints and the +6 and definitely going with the OVER.
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