Venue/ Stadium Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
The Falcons (5-3) are winners of 3 straight games and if they can beat the Saints (6-3) in this home game they will take over 1st place in the NFC South.
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, November 13, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Saints -110 / Falcons -110
Spread (ATS): Pick’em
Over/Under: 49.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview
However, the Saints have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Falcons in Atlanta including the last 2. NFL lines have this game as a pick’em game with a total of 49.5.
In their last games Atlanta crushed the Indianapolis Colts 31-7 and New Orleans beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-16.
One of the main reasons the Falcons have been winning is they have got back to running the ball with Michael Turner, who has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. He may be the key for Atlanta offense and he will be facing a Saints’ run defense that ranks 17th in the league. The more he can run the ball the more Drew Brees and the dynamic offense of New Orleans will be on the sidelines.
Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan has played well in the last few games and he has a couple of great WR’s in rookie Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones had 2 TD catches of over 50 yards last week against Indy and the Saints and their 19th ranked pass defense has to keep Atlanta from making the big play down the field. While the Saints’ secondary has had their issues this season their pass rush if solid with 20 sacks, so the Falcons’ offense line has to play well in this NFC South match up. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Drew Brees leads the Saints and their 2nd ranked pass offense and he has no lack of receiving options and TE Jimmy Graham has the 5th most receiving yards in the league. The Atlanta pass defense only ranks 19th in the league and that is a big concern in this game. Saints’ leading rusher Mark Ingram is a question mark with an injury, but the Saints still have a slew of RB’s that can move the chains on the ground. Still, Brees is THE key, as the Falcons’ run defense is solid ranking 7th in the league in opponents rushing yards per game.
Betting Trends
This season New Orleans is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-4 and Atlanta is 4-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-5.
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record, and has an Over record of 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win and in their last 4 games the total has gone Under every time.
In the last 7 games between these division rivals the total has gone Over 5 times.
Jason’s Pick: The Falcons are playing well, but I think the Saints are still a better team and they will win this game to snap Atlanta’s 3-game winning streak. The Falcons have had an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games, but I think this game will go over with Brees having a big game.
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