Houston vs New England Betting?
Headline: Texans Look For Revenge Versus Patriots in Divisional Round
The Houston Texans head out on the road this week looking to erase the memory of a 42-14 loss at the hands of the New England Patriots December 10 – a loss that begun a slight downhill spiral down the stretch for the Texans. Not a whole lot went right for Houston in that Monday night game and unfortunately for them, there hasn’t been a ton of improvement, especially on offense since that blowout loss.
Houston Texans (12-4) vs. New England Patriots (12-4)
Date/Time: Sunday, January 13, 4:30 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Texans vs. Patriots Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Patriots -9 1/2 (-105)
Moneyline: Texans +330: Patriots -400
Over/Under: 47 1/2 points
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The Texans stumbled their way to the Division semi-final with a pedestrian 19-13 win over the Bengals last week while the Patriots are exactly where we thought they would be – at home in the playoffs looking like the AFC team to beat ahead of this year’s Super Bowl.
The Houston Texans got schooled last time they travelled to New England on both sides of the ball. They gave up 42 points on defense; they rushed for just 100 yards and threw for 247 in what was arguably their worst all-around performance of the year.
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Despite that loss and the late-season struggles, the Texans ended the season Top 10 in the NFL in nearly every statistical category.
Houston’s game is running the ball with Arian Foster but their ability to get the ball in their best playmakers hands lacked somewhat down the stretch. Last week Foster was the difference in the game rushing for 140 yards – a good sign for all you Texans fans. Houston ended the season with the 8th best rushing attack in the NFL – they will absolutely need their running game to show up Sunday.
The Texans passing game was 11th in the NFL this season gaining 239.38 yards per game. The issue? They only have one real weapon – Andre Johnson. If the Pats slow Johnson, obviously Matt Schaub’s numbers will be less-than-scintillating.
Houston’s defense also struggled down the stretch but was clearly one of the better units in the league during the regular season. They gave up 42 points in December 10 to the Patriots and but they limited Cincinnati to just 13 last week in a game that Andy Dalton was made to look like an amateur. Overall Houston finished the season 16th against the pass, 7th against the run and they allowed the 9th fewest points per game.
The New England Patriots had some success versus the Houston Texans earlier this season in a game that Tom Brady went 21-for-35 for 296 yards with four touchdowns and no picks — but it was the Patriots’ defense that really excelled. The Patriots defense limited Houston to just 14 points, 100 yards rushing and 247 yards passing. The Texans crossed the New England 30-yard line just once in the first half, and didn’t get into the Patriots’ red zone until it was 28-0 midway through the third quarter. Eight of Houston’s 13 drives went for four plays or less, and the Texans were 4-for-14 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Patriots offense was predictably one of the best in the NFL this season – tops in scoring with an average of 34.18 points per game, 7th in rushing surprisingly averaging 136.50 yards per game and 4th in passing with 291.38 yards per game on average. They were as balanced as we have seen with this team – scary for any of their opposition going forward. In the first meeting, the Pats had success without Rob Gronkowski who is healthy again and ready to re-assume his role as one of the biggest offensive weapons in the game.
As mentioned, New England’s defense was not the liability that many thought they would be this year. They were 9th in points against (20.69 per game), ninth against the run but 29th against the pass. With Arian Foster coming to town, the run defense will be called upon often and when the pass defense is thrust into action, they will have the benefit of matching up with a Houston pass offense that struggled down the stretch.
Betting Prediction:
A few trends to consider:
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games
• Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
• Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
• Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
• New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England’s last 7 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England’s last 14 games
The success of Tom Brady on home turf is well documented and there is no reason to think that his success will end Sunday. Brady’s experience, his host of weapons and his overall command of arguably the best offense in the game should propel the Pats to an easy victory Sunday. Despite Houston’s success last week against Cincinnati the fact remains that they only scored one offensive touchdown in their win.
Field goals won’t get it done against New England! This game has blowout written all over it – Houston has been average at best the last six weeks and average won’t nearly be good enough against one of the most decorated playoff QBs in the history of the game. The Pats win easily – fear not the 9 1/2 point spread!
Pick: New England patriots -9 1/2
