Venue/ Stadium Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The Texans (6-3) have won 3 straight and are atop the AFC South, but are they for real? They have only beaten one team that is over .500 and QB Matt Schaub is not putting up the numbers he usually does.
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, November 13, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Texans -170 / Bucs +150
Spread (ATS): Texans -3
Over/Under: 45.5
Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
The Bucs (4-4) have lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 and they have been struggling on both sides of the ball and really need a win in this game to stay in the NFC South race since the Saints (6-3) and Falcons (5-3) are ahead of them in the division.
In their last games Tampa Bay lost to the New Orleans Saints 27-16 and the Texans beat the Cleveland Browns 30-12.
Schaub is not playing bad just not putting up sick numbers like we are used to seeing. However, he does not have to since the Houston defense is solid and the RB duo of Adrian Foster (656 yards) and Ben Tate (623) lead a rushing offense that ranks 2nd in the league. That does not bode well for the Bucs, who only rank 26th in the league in run defense.
Schaub may have a big game this Sunday and even though the Texans will likely be without star WR Andre Johnson for another game due to an injury the Houston QB will be facing Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 28th in the league. On top of that he will probably have time to find his targets since the Bucs’ pass rush that ranks 2nd to last in the league in sacks. I do not think the pickup of the recently released Albert Haynesworth is going to help that much this Sunday.
One bright spot for the Bucs is that they will get RB LeGarrette Blount back after he missed a couple of games. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
He and QB Josh Freeman will have to play well in this game against a much-improved Texans’ defense. Much improved may be an understatement, as after being one of the worst teams on D last season new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has turned things around and Houston ranks 2nd in the league defending the pass and 4th defending the run.
The Bucs must take advantage of red zone opportunities, which they have not done this season and it has hurt them. They have only scored 8 TD in 22 trips to the opponents’ red zone and that is the worst in the NFL.
Betting Trends
This season Tampa Bay is 3-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-4 and Houston is 5-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-6.
Houston is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, and has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, e 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3 points, and has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
Jason’s Pick: I think Houston is a legit team this season and they will have no problem beating a Bucs’ team in this house with all the issues they have on both sides of the ball. I think the Bucs will really struggle to score in this game, so I think the Under is the good pick.
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