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There is little hope that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to surprise and be good this season. The question is whether they are going to be bad, as bad as last year or worse.

They made all the right changes at the top but last I checked games are still won by players on the field and they don’t have a lot of good ones…but there is really only one way to go when you are on the bottom.

2013 Jacksonville Jaguars Preview/Predictions
2012 Record: 2-14
ATS Record: 7-9
2013 Team Futures
Super Bowl Odds:+15000
Conference Odds: +20000
Division Odds: +3000

After last season the Jags had to make changes. They brought in a great coach in Gus Bradley, who has been directing the defense at Seattle the last few seasons when it has been great. Bradley has good energy and as a Pete Carroll disciple he is going to make it all about competing.

On the personnel side it is unfortunately going to be a lot of the same faces, which is why the ceiling is so low for this team. I trust this leadership group to get the team going in the right direction but it is going to take some time.

Jacksonville’s offense was terrible last year. RB Maurice Jones-Drew can be one of the better backs in the league but he missed time and without him the run game was pathetic. He is already banged up a little at this stage and if he is not ready to play this team is in some serious trouble.

RB Justin Forsett is an OK backup but it might have made a lot more sense to draft a real back rather than messing around with Denard Robinson as a slash player (and Ace Sanders too). This team has to be able to run the ball and top pick OT Luke Joeckel should be able to help at right tackle.

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I am convinced that Blaine Gabbert is not an NFL quarterback. The fact that the team has not come to this conclusion is going to set the team back again this season and his backup Chad Henne is only serviceable. The surrounding weapons are far from great and it doesn’t help that WR Justin Blackmon will miss the first 4 games of the season to suspension.

TE Marcedes Lewis may have all the physical tools but he has yet to have a season where he had more than 700 yards receiving. That is hardly elite by today’s standards.

The Jags were the only team who filled their head coach opening with a defensive guy this offseason – and with good reason. Bradley was blessed with great talent in Seattle, something he does not have in Jacksonville but you have to think the defense should show some improvement this year. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

At the very least they should be a lot more aggressive and maybe DE Jason Babin has a little something left in the tank. They drafted three DBs and it looks like two will start which is pretty unheard of in the NFL given the emphasis on the pass these days.

These guys might get torched.

Overall Outlook: The outlook for the Jaguars is not pretty. The AFC South is not the toughest division in the league but they are not likely to collect many wins there. Lucky for them they are visited by the Cardinals and the Bills or else even last year’s 2 wins might seem lofty. Unless Bradley is able to radically transform the defense this team is totally sunk.

The only real question is just how bad are they – and with Gabbert at the helm they can be pretty bad. Last year they were 7-9 against the spread but it could be argued that the numbers just got so big sometimes you just had to play the Jags.

One interesting date to look forward to is October 27 when they square off with the 49ers in London.

Normally you wouldn’t give them a chance but maybe with the total change in routine they keep that one closer than expected.

Maybe.

2013 Jags Predictions:

Place they will finish in the AFC South: 4th
Place they will finish in the AFC: 16th

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By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.